Jonathan retweeted
"November 3 was the Leigh Wambsganss Election - enough erstwhile Republican voters teamed up with energized Democrats to deal far-right Republicanism a grievous blow in the state."
New from me: could we see the Texas Blue Wave coming? I break down how my early vote tracker did, what could be improved. Overall, I think it performed well given the limitations of early vote analysis.
Please subscribe and spread the word - there is lots more to come!
arminthomas.com/p/could-we-s…
Jonathan retweeted
I don't know about other states, but at least in Texas, Republicans blaming their losses on turnout are mega coping.
Low propensity voters didn't show up (as always), high propensity Republicans definitely did (see the later EV redshift), and then a bunch of them voted for Democrats anyway to send a message.
The Leigh Wambsganss Election.
Using data from @lxeagle17, if you assume that exit polls have the same recall bias as normal polls, the actual electorate was likely closer to Harris +2, and Trump defections closer to 10%.
Mediocre R turnout, very high D turnout, and the 4% new voters that broke D+45...(1/2)
Jonathan retweeted
Here's a fun one.
Based on the count so far, Democratic candidates for Senate did nearly 5 points better (in margin) relative to 2024 in counties where Trump held a rally in Oct/Nov, compared to directly adjacent counties in the same state.
You’re unable to view this Post because this account owner limits who can view their Posts. Learn more
Jonathan retweeted
An early postmortem on our models and polls — namely, Republicans did worse than *anyone* predicted.
theargumentmag.com/p/republi…
Jonathan retweeted
In the end, our final polls did not skew toward either side. Our old weighting approach would have overestimated Dems by 3.
The lesson: nonresponse was probably a bigger problem than in prior midterms, but weighting to a 2024 electorate (like many other pollsters) obviously wasn't a solution, either
Jonathan retweeted
Most accurate national pollsters will be @honestpollster, @BIGDATAPOLL, @gelliottmorris/ Verasight, @onpointpolitics, and @nytimes, not necessarily in that order by margin BUT also told the story THROUGHOUT the cycle.
On RCP
--------
@BIGDATAPOLL, @honestpollster, and @nytimes
Madison county is 82% in, currently a *23%* shift left.
Jonathan retweeted
As discussed, this is not a favorable turnout differential for Republicans. The electorate will be roughly three points bluer than in 2024, even as Republicans have gained a net 500,000 registered voters since then. Turnout has erased those gains and more.
If election day ends up being 1.4 million (same as 2022), and IF - big if - Jackson is able to win the election day vote by the same margin as Brian Kemp, that means KLB needs to see a 57-43 lead in the statewide early vote to win, which is almost exactly what she's polled at.
Jonathan retweeted
The biggest potential disaster for Republicans on Tuesday isn't even the House or Senate.
It's the gubernatorial and legislature losses ahead of 2028 and 2030.
They could have locked out Democrats for thirty years. Now, Democrats are favored and could do it to them.
Such short-sightedness plagues the American Right.