it’s a puppet life for me / shed life
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Joined November 2020
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puppet prince retweeted
Nothing to see here, move along, we just build cool shit around here.
Battle of Machines soon available on printer.fun
Flywheel will have entertainment for all types of degenerates
💰💰💰💰💰💰
Early
Highlander 1745 is coming. 3,333 historically inspired pixel Highlanders, forged from the world of the Jacobite Rising. Tartans. Broadswords. Bonnets. Muskets. Highland landscapes. Launching soon on @RobinhoodApp
puppet prince retweeted
robinhood lists pons. vlad buys the nft, changes his pfp to it, drops a follow to the account.
28M retail users discover you can earn stocks passively just by owning a weird pixel image. pons partnership with stackers goes mainstream overnight.
pons flies to 500M. stack floor does 100x.
possible?
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puppet prince retweeted
cya at $169,420 $BTC
puppet prince retweeted
Only one scenario saves bitcoin:native and $MSTR in the short-term.
Saylor has to come out and say (via Monday's 8K, or next Monday's 8K):
"I sold $4 bn of MSTR and BTC... we now have 2.5 years before we have to raise money again... dividends are covered for 2+ years, debt doesn't mature til sept 2028 (puttable in 2027) and that's easy to refinance via more converts".
If he does that, the market rips, and might even rip 20-30%. It once again makes MSTR uninteresting for years, but that's a good thing. STRC probably goes back close to $100, but he won't be able to sell more. And while capital markets might be closed to MSTR for awhile, it at least buys a ton of time, and in that time who knows what other catalysts might pop up.
He should have done this last week instead of that misguided $2.5mm teaser sale.
If he doesn't, and he continues to just wait it out (only has 5 months), or he sells tiny amounts as he goes (just enough to pay each monthly dividend), this selling won't stop
i'm not in Saylor's inner circle, but this $MSTR story has gotten so out of hand, my only guess is this:
- MSTR could have sat and done nothing before they started pumping out $billons of prefs... it would have made MSTR boring (little buys, no sells), but it would have been stable teapaw.org/jdorman81/status/19959…
- But the push into these prefs was based on him clearly thinking $BTC was about to moon — not sure what he saw to think that (4 year cycle, flows, ???) but that's the only reason to take that sort of miscalculated risk to screw up his balance sheet so badly -- he must have thought BTC was about to fly and he could easily pay the pref dividends with future BTC sales.
- Then BTC started falling, and the market got spooked because the $15 bn in prefs have a $1.5 bn/year annual dividend, so he raised $2 bn in cash via stock just to alleviate any near-term default concerns — that bought him almost 2 years of runway to pay dividends. Smart move
At that point, he could have chilled for a little, and even though he now has every stakeholder pinned against each other, there was at least no near term risk teapaw.org/jdorman81/status/20342…
- But then for some unknown reason, he decides to take that cash buffer and buyback 2029 maturity bonds instead of using it to fund the annual dividends (at a discount, so it's at least mildly accretive to MSTR). This is a baffling decision for a company with cash flow problems. Why pay off 0% coupon debt with the only cash you have?
The only bull case is that underestimating Saylor's capital markets chicanery has been a losing proposition for years. Maybe there was a plan?
That plan may just be selling BTC, which he will have to do eventually, but if he does this while BTC is in a death spriral it's going to crush BTC and MSTR. So again, why buyback the debt now and force your hand sooner than you have to?
Maybe he is going to refinance those converts with new longer-dated converts? He has sworn off converts, so I doubt it, but that would at least logically make sense.
But TLDR -- this is the first time that MSTR, BTC and Pref holders are really in bind. Someone is going to lose badly here, and it will happen in the next 4 months.
