@juddcramer

Lecturing @HarvardEcon.

Joined April 2011
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  • Followers226
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Two years ago, Larry Summers and a team of coauthors argued that accounting for interest rates — and the cost of money they implied — explained 3/4 of the apparent sentiment gap between traditional economic indicators and vibes in 2023. nber.org/papers/w32163

The Cost of Money is Part of the Cost of Living: New Evidence on the Consumer Sentiment Anomaly

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Judd Cramer retweeted
Mary Julia Koch
@MJ_Koch7 Apr 2025
Today, the cost of securing a top college athlete like Cooper Flagg can be millions of dollars. “Especially in these times when higher education might be facing cuts, schools want to do everything they can to recruit students,” says @juddcramer.
Mary Julia Koch
@MJ_Koch7 Apr 2025
If you want to find the real March Madness, look at how NIL is skewing the playing field of college sports. The best teams are getting even better—and the lesser teams are losing out. My @NewYorkSun story on this new “pay to play” paradigm: nysun.com/article/with-the-n…

With the NCAA Championship Set for Monday, NIL Is Tipping the Scales in Favor of Bigger, Wealthier...

A new revenue-sharing plan is set to begin in July that critics warn could widen the gap between the ‘haves’ and ‘have nots.’

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The new Summers paper folks have been talking about:
Joe Weisenthal
@TheStalwart22 Jan 2022
Let me get this straight about the Fed and inflation. The price of tons of stuff is going up. And now they even want to make money more expensive?
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In new NBER paper with @MA_Bolhuis, @juddcramer and Oskar Shulz, we argue that the unprecedented increase in borrowing costs is crucial to explaining the low consumer sentiment of the last two years. 1/N nber.org/papers/w32163

The Cost of Money is Part of the Cost of Living: New Evidence on the Consumer Sentiment Anomaly

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The Lead Article of the Review of Finance is on a highly topical issue: "The Coming Rise in Residential Inflation" by @MA_Bolhuis, @juddcramer and @LHSummers. Open access at academic.oup.com/rof/article….
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June CPI inflation hit 9.1% yoy.  Housing has now become a key driver inflation in the US - as predicted in February by my @nberpubs paper w/@juddcramer and @MA_Bolhuis.  (1/5) nber.org/papers/w29795

The Coming Rise in Residential Inflation

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国際部門担当でもある秦アンディ英之GMは「強化、教育、地域を連動する形で世界を代表する教育機会と連携できないかとやってきた」と説明。ハーバードのジャド・クレイマー教授は「チームづくりを手伝えたら私の学生にもすごくいいこと。三遠は将来、優勝できるチームになる」と日本語で話しました。
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The Fed outsmarted itself last year by looking too deep into the numbers on inflation. This time, it's looking at the big picture bloomberg.com/opinion/articl… via @opinion

Don’t Be Fooled by Conflicting Inflation Metrics. The Fed Won’t.

The US central bank outsmarted itself last year by overparsing the numbers from PCE and CPI. It won’t repeat that mistake.

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Replying to @jeannasmialek @stuartathompson @LHSummers @fullstackecon
Summers and crew applied today's approach (+ updated weights) to the old data. Here's their chart.
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New paper shows past & present CPI inflation are more similar than official data suggests. When correcting for change in how housing inflation is measured, we find a return to target core inflation will require @ same disinflation as achieved under Volcker nber.org/papers/w30116#.Yp3e…

Comparing Past and Present Inflation

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Extremely proud and flattered to say I received a Hoopes Prize for my thesis. Thanks again to all involved––especially @PFF_Eric, without whom none of this would've been possible.
Tucker Boynton@Tucker_TnL10 Mar 2022
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The Fed and the housing market are on a high-speed collision course trib.al/rXtuvmN

Housing Defies Fed’s Campaign to Control Inflation

Home prices just keep rising despite surging mortgage rates, and they are baked into indexes that track rising prices.

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In Feb, we forecasted residential services inflation would grow to @ 7% by 2023—our forecast was a month ahead of reality but seems well calibrated. This category makes up almost 40% of core CPI. Potential problem for those who want swift disinflation. nber.org/papers/w29795 2/2

The Coming Rise in Residential Inflation

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Both CPI rent and OER inflation rates increased to 4.8% in April. Typical home prices and rents up 20.9% and 16.4% over same period according to @Zillow. My paper w/@juddcramer and @MA_Bolhuis shows that residential service inflation lag private numbers but should converge. 1/2
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“past increases ensure an uptick in recorded housing inflation in 2022. residential inflation will peak in late 2022, but it will remain elevated in 2023 and that this could make a substantial contribution to overall inflatio • @LHSummers @voxeu voxeu.org/article/residentia…
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CPI rent and OER inflation rates increased to 4.4 and 4.5% in March. This is a bit below our forecasts published in February. Our model and new market-based data still suggest housing inflation will move close to seven percent in early 2023. @nberpubs nber.org/papers/w29795

The Coming Rise in Residential Inflation

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One of many reasons why I think prevailing views on inflation remain too optimistic is the likely path of residential inflation as laid out in this new @nberpubs paper. Housing will be a substantial source of inflation ACCELERATION in 2022. nber.org/papers/w29795

The Coming Rise in Residential Inflation

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Jessica Wagner JMP: "The Effects of Student Exposure to Proactive Policing: Evidence from Los Angeles Gang Injunctions" Website: sites.google.com/view/jessic…
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