Jude retweeted
We get to watch $TSLA demo a literal flying car and run to our screens and long $TSLA perps on @HyperliquidX 12 hours before the rest of the world wakes up and sees this shit.
What a time to be alive. I refuse to be a bear.
Ai winner...
off the dome crypto market thoughts:
generally speaking i think im really good at sizing up early late into a trend before it gets euphoric, ive made most of my money this way. pump, zec etc. i am extremely bad at playing the last 20% near the top and holding the middle boring slow part, as are most.
i want to be in as few middle boring slow trades as possible at all times
kind of impossible to argue that we’re anywhere else but there right now with coins. euphoric pumps on alts last 90 days. honestly kinda weaker than ideal pump on btc but it still worked. onchain grasping for life then we get the death narrative with the ai justin drake whatever blah blah
at a baseline whenever we get a flush like we had wednesday/thursday it’s just not possible to V back to ath. look what happened to dram soxl or any other crypto wipeout in the past. it almost can’t happen and has to build a base for a while. then the few people with opinions decide what we think about the assets who wants out etc etc
as it relates to crypto i actually believe in the frank thesis. best bull case is becoming the frontier hub for cryptography again, which the entire world needs more than ever, solving it first as would be tradition with crypto and achieving this “perfect defi/security” idea. hard to not be impressed with the collective response to justin drake and a market unifying common enemy is powerful. it’s the final boss of wall of worry to climb. anything other than death is good
i think there will be a select few coins that achieve this state and they will be labeled “ai winners” (cc based16z post)
being labeled an ai winner is infinitely better than “ai loser” (obviously, but what’s what we are right now) and much much better than being ignored. ai winner category means you can pump infinitely.
i think we’re (my stream) gonna have a period here to get smart and think about what does that mean, what is possible, what are our goal posts etc
until some breakthroughs or narrative vibe shifts with crypto i think it’s gonna be really hard for what feels like a locally exhausted asset class in a locally exhausted broader market with stocks/yields/oil/blah blah blah blah blah etc (i know, i know)
after torching 150k on zec i promised myself i wouldn’t touch trades until monday (today), and was all cash. honestly thought id come back to the board ready to fire but instead find myself pretty uninspired atm
feels like a game of who can stay patient long enough without dying that we’re in right now. i really think there is so much upside to be had and we’re entering the golden era of crypto, every time i try to intellectualize every move i realize im retarded that’s never how i make money and its too easy to get microwaved
i opened a few alts shorts this am which has played rather well, because i’m bored, im down to hold it, and plan to do nothing for a little bit but whatever
as always i flip on a dime but we are in no mans land rn
also you guys pumped wormhole lol
Jude retweeted
absolutely do not take justin's advice btw
you are way more likely to lose your money by superficially moving it around than it is for fundamental cryptography to break overnight
(if that happened, the whole world would break, not just coins)
an unnecessarily performative post
Jude retweeted
The Woah Vicky account was sold early 2023 to a private equity firm owned by Peter Thiel
Jude retweeted
What i'm doing with my coins brain dump i didn't proof read
- A couple thoughts as to how I’ve traded this cycle so far
First and foremost alts and onchain are behaving very similar on the way up. Coins go into a lockout up trend, the entire timeline flips tubro bullish. This lasts until price cools off. eventually we rotate. Attention gets vamped onto the next. The strongest coins, however, always get the rotation back. So far it’s been Hype, Zec, Lit, Pump, near… ? The obvious takeaway is there is edge in being able to sit on a coin longer than a few days. Look at what happened with pump. 2x off the bottom in a straight line, nobody owned it, and after a few weeks of underperformance it was like people forgot the coin existed? Picked their own vamp to outperform (stonk, long, pons), then pump gets back into lockout trend.
The difference between the chosen alts and “onchain” is the flows keep coming back to the good alts. I stand by the idea that it is hard to justify anything onchain in the 300-500+ range because these alts have so much fucking juice in them. I don’t think Zec $5k+ Hype $250+ VVV $100+ Pump $.2 this year is that ridiculous. It means I have to either trade low caps into the 20-50 range or fully focus on spot alts (mentioned below) and leverage trading breakouts to stack more spot alts.
The obvious takeaway here is In order to catch the real moves these alts are capable of the only way to get there is by holding spot. Price action is schizo, partly bc everyone is trading high leverage only. It leads to nasty washouts and stops being run. 5-10xs are going to require being able to sit through chop. Look at how bitcoin has traded, lockout move 5-10% higher followed by seven days of nothing, which is legitimately grueling to leverage longs. Everyone gets wiped out. The timeline goes to war. Then we leg up again. I don’t see why this would stop. In hindsight the obvious way to play it was sitting in spot which goes against what I have been doing (and getting paid for).
——
A valid concern is what will happen with stocks/bonds/war/oil/ant ipo/etc. The honest truth is I don’t think it matters. The fear was always “if crypto is trading this bad while stocks trade this good what happens when it flips.” There have been moments of stock misery (despite things looking pretty great all things considered rn) and crypto broke that correlation. I think bitcoin continues to exist as a great alternative to the ai trade and the good alts mentioned above can standalone as quality, cheap, assets that exist separately to crypto performance as a whole.
Every second I have spent thinking above these fears and reading market commentary has been a mistake.
I think in order to get paid as generationally as I would like over the coming months it Is imperative to read as few market opinions as possible. It feels like my feed has been overwhelmed by a storm of slop from people not making money. I can’t not get shaken out by trash. I stream for three hours a day, everyday, whatever I cover and learn during those sessions is beyond enough information to make clear decisions at the level that I need to.
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I think ultimately it comes down to what do I think will happen over the next 6-12 months. Thinking this far in advance is the only way to break away from the cesspool of flip flopping biases every hour on the timeline. And what I think it we have the best setup I’ve seen since joining crypto for outright mania.
Sec + CFTC are running GAME to push crypto. Btc ETF buyers are green again. Tokens are investible. Crypto is “cool” on socials to the younger generation. Social trading apps have reached escape velocity. Perps matter. Robinhood going all in, etc etc etc. I don’t need to pill anyone on the bull case. I love the spot.
The only way to make it that far is to hold the best coins on spot. This is shockingly difficult for me to do right now after having a great year trading perps. But I have to understand that the majority of that was during a bear market where there’s one or two impulse moves if lucky. Not a continuous uptrend with infinite marginal buyers higher and nothing but catalysts and air above like I think we have right now. It’s going to take some rewiring of my brain to make it where I think we can get to and keep exposure.
My final thought is when I think back on the traders of last cycle that outperformed the hardest what sticks out was their ability to denominate all profits into the winning coin. In 2024 it was sol. Stack sol -> sell to buy onchain coins -> take profits -> buy more sol. Rinse and repeat continuous big wins while sol legs up from $8->$270. Congrats on making it. I have been mentally taking a similar approach the last couple months but didn’t execute it as well as I wish I had. First it was pump. Most recently it was zec. Great PNLs on both but I wasted so much mental energy stressed over short term pa for no particular reason. (Buy some spot retard)
I sold, all of my zcash, because I felt extremely bloated in leverage and wanted to reset after playing the first round of the cycle pretty well imo. Moving forward I still believe that coin is zec and maybe a basket of a few others, Pump/Hype/vvv? And will probably be trading accordingly. Stack a ton of spot. Keep a non insignificant amount to leverage trade tighter spots, stack my golden goose coin
And pray we make it. good luck to us
