jayh

- - - Analysis - - - Is Iran´s whole longtime strategy at stake? Although we do not know when and how Israel will attack Iran, we can try to work out what an attack on Iran would mean for the country and the Middle East. Iran has built up Hezbollah as a frontline organisation against Israel. When Israel invaded Lebanon in June 1982, it was a dream come true for Iran and the radical Shiite clerics in Lebanon. It was the ultimate opportunity to confront Israel. Over the years, Hezbollah grew and became stronger, and Iran began to develop a nuclear program. Iran understood the nuclear logic: the ultimate protection against any attack that would threaten the state and its achievement is a nuclear strike force, a nuclear umbrella. Iran´s nuclear umbrella for power projection Like any other nuclear umbrella, it could serve as a shield under which Iran and its proxies and affiliates could project power with conventional weapons. But unless that umbrella is ready and on standby, it could be damaged while it is being built. Iran also understood that Israel would never allow Iran to become a nuclear power. So Iran needed a second-strike weapon, and it made Hezbollah that second-strike weapon. A deterrent and life-saver. Missiles from Lebanon only fly for a few minutes. So Israel's early warning system has a very short time to react, to activate countermeasures and to send people into shelters. That seemed to be a good options for Iran. The fastest missiles from Iran take about 15 minutes to travel and can be intercepted far from Israeli territory, greatly reducing the damage on the ground. The logic behind Iran's nuclear program is clear: along with regime security, Iran wants to secure its sphere of interest in the Middle East with a nuclear shield. Hezbollah as a second-strike weapon But the nuclear program has been disrupted several times. Israel has regularly assassinated leading Iranian nuclear scientists and, together with the US, sabotaged Iran's nuclear centrifuges with the Stuxnet virus in 2010. Iran does not yet have a nuclear deterrent and therefore urgently needs Hezbollah's second-strike capabilities in the event of an Israeli or combined Israeli-US attack on its nuclear program. The question is now: can Hezbollah still fulfill its function as Iran's second-strike weapon? That is difficult to say. It has not yet been tested, because Israel has not yet attacked Iran's nuclear facilities. What we can see is that Hezbollah´s rockets - even the larger ones - are not having the desired effect. Israel intercepts them and they do not cause major damage in Israel. We also don´t know how many of these weapons Israel has already destroyed in its intensive bombing raids in recent weeks. Hezbollah's most dangerous missiles are most likely not stored in the Israeli-Lebanese border area, but in the Lebanese hinterland. Iran´s longtime Middle East strategy at stake If we assume that Hezbollah's rockets are no longer as effective as they might have been, because Israel has destroyed many of them and also eliminated large parts of Hezbollah's military and political leadership, then - to put it simply - Iran's nuclear program is in grave danger. And the Israeli government may well feel emboldened to take steps it would not have dared a few weeks ago. Namely, to try to destroy or severely set back Iran's nuclear program. From that point of view, Iran's whole long-standing regional strategy could be at stake. Hezbollah can still fight, but without experienced commanders it will be difficult to maintain quality. Without a dangerous missile capability, it cannot serve as Iran's second-strike weapon and be part of an Iranian deterrent. And if Iran loses large parts of its future nuclear umbrella, it will be harder for Iran to implement its plan to support and protect its assets and the regional achievements of the last 45 years since the Iranian revolution in 1979, now that Israel obviously has decided to make a clear cut and attack them and Iran decisively. On 29 September, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said: "We are changing the strategic reality in the Middle East. The coming days and weeks will show whether Israel dares to try - and how. #Israel #Iran #Hezbollah #nuclear #strategy #MiddleEast #Tehran #politics #Military #Netanyahu #Nahost #Beirut #Libanon #Lebanon #TelAviv