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Every "awesome prediction markets" list on GitHub is stale. Dead PRs waiting for months and even years.
So I built one that maintains itself: rebuilds daily, fetches its own numbers (volume, repo health, freshness). Nothing on it goes stale.
github.com/kachence/predicti…
Free $250 in Claude credits if you are subscribed to the Max plan.
Follow the link below to claim the credit or run /claim-credit in the CLI. You’ll need GitHub connected to start a session. Claim by Oct 7. Terms apply.
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Big if true 🤯
Part 1.5
Felt bad leaving you guys with nothing tonight
So here is the undeniable proof that Kalshi is faking their PERP volume
FYI in case the data was to vanish over night, I have downloaded it and it's encrypted on 3 diff clouds
jus in case u know
Anyhow, here is an example
On ETH the exact same $5500 trade size keeps appearing over and over again
By over and over again, I mean it literally made up 48%–58% of ALL ETH PERP volume on 4 separate days
Also rumor, by rumor I mean person who told me wants to stay anonymous so I can't share proof, is that Kalshi has volume deals so MMs are forced to fuck around and do things like this
Literally incentivized to cheat
What I don't understand is why they are so bad at it kek
pro tip: if you guys want to fake volume one day, don't use the same lot size to do it over and over again
sincerely,
beni
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Kacho retweeted
🆕 New project added to the prediction markets wiki
PolyMM
PolyMM by @kachoio is an open-source Python bot for Polymarket sports market making ⚽🤖
It combines bookmaker de-vigging, automated quoting, and hedging, making it a useful reference for sports-market quant developers.
Now every link you add to the prediction-almanac awesome list repo is automatically included in my blog on a page I just created.
If you want to list anything related to prediction markets, create a PR and I will have a look.
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I started being a bit more active on X and it seems to be paying off - I just got my 100th follower now! Already connecting with others who are passionate about prediction markets, which is great.
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While on holiday I check my positions on my MM bot and see a $1k non-hedged position 😱
A silent bug in my code let this happen. Thankfully, I picked it up before any serious damage was done, costing me $85 to exist the position instantly.
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Kacho retweeted
Up/down polymarkets just got upgraded.
Trade 5m, 15m, & hourly crypto up/downs with time-weighted average pricing (TWAP).
To celebrate, we're giving away $1M in liquidity rewards across BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, HYPE, BNB, & DOGE polymarkets.
A pretty stale week for my sports bot. Fewer arbs and more adverse fills than usual.
I improved odds freshness from 5 min to 15 seconds now. Also expanded to more sports (UFC, soccer) and markets (over/under, handicap, etc).
Let's see how that goes.
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A Polymarket sports market-making and arbitrage bot in Python. Made me about $5k in Jan-Apr. Certainly not as competitive now, but a good starting point.
github.com/kachence/polymm
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Kacho retweeted
To protect market integrity in our crypto up/down markets, we're updating how these markets resolve.
What's changing: Starting August 7th at 12 am UTC, affected markets will no longer resolve based on a single snapshot-in-time price. Instead, resolution will use a time-weighted average price (TWAP), with the averaging window scaled to the length of the market (detailed below).
Liquidity rewards: To support liquidity through this transition, we're adding $1M in liquidity rewards across all impacted markets through the month of August.
Market Details:
- All crypto 5 min markets: 30 second TWAP
- All crypto 15 min markets: 60 second TWAP
- All crypto 4 hour markets: 60 second TWAP
Developer access: Chainlink TWAP testnet feeds are available now. Mainnet feeds and Polymarket RTDS delivery are scheduled to launch on August 4, 2026. At launch, developers can consume TWAP prices directly through Chainlink Data Streams or through Polymarket’s public Real-Time Data Streaming WebSocket. Integration instructions, feed IDs, SDK examples, and testing guidance are available here:
docs.polymarket.com/market-d…
Last week I open-sourced my Polymarket bot. A few people were annoyed I gave away one that had "already lost its edge".
They're not wrong that it had. The Rust rewrite I actually run made ~$650 last month, same public wallet. I'm keeping that one.
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I open-sourced my Polymarket bot. The one that made ~$5k, wallet public the whole time.
Most "I built a Polymarket bot" repos are a README and a screenshot. This one has receipts you can reconcile - and it also stopped making money, which is exactly why I can give it away.
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Clone it and flip it on as-is and you'll mostly feed faster bots. But bring fresher odds and quicker execution - the two things that beat me - and there's a real bot in here.
Read, learn, improve. The next drop is the Rust rewrite going live in public.
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Repo (MIT) and the full write-up on why giving it away costs me nothing:
kacho.io/open-sourcing-my-po…
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