Karan Bedi retweeted
if this isn't the cleanest example of europe vs america right now, i don't know what is
This is outstanding. Buy $meta
Karan Bedi retweeted
I am a member of the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
There are five of us. Five people, appointed by a parliament most of the planet could not find on a map, who decide, once a year, which human being the world has agreed to call good.
I know. I know. I think about it on the tram.
We meet in a building on Henrik Ibsens gate, a street named after a man who wrote almost exclusively about people discovering they are frauds, which nobody on the committee finds funny except me. There is a room with a long table and the portraits of the dead laureates looking down, Mandela, the Dalai Lama, a great many earnest men in spectacles, and one portrait we do not discuss, which is Kissinger, 1973, awarded while the bombs were still falling, after which two of our predecessors resigned and the satirist Tom Lehrer said political satire was now obsolete. We keep him on the wall. A reminder. Every family has the uncle.
It is October in Oslo, which means the sun gives up around four in the afternoon like a civil servant, and it rains the particular Norwegian rain that isn’t quite falling, just hanging there, judging you. I arrive with wet shoes. I always arrive with wet shoes. There is coffee, because this is Norway and there is always coffee, we drink more of it per person than almost anyone alive, and someone’s wife has sent kanelboller, the cinnamon buns, and we sit, five Norwegians, damp, caffeinated, sugared, and we decide the moral standing of the entire species.
Let me tell you how it actually works, because the world imagines a cathedral and it is, I promise you, a book club with a mandate.
287 nominations this year. 208 people, 79 organizations. Anyone can nominate, that’s the secret nobody understands: a professor, a parliamentarian, a former laureate, so the “nominee” list is meaningless, it’s a suggestion box, and every autumn some congressman nominates his own golden retriever and the press writes “SHORTLISTED.” Nobody is shortlisted. There is no short list the public ever sees. There is us, and the coffee, and the rain, and the portraits, and a Norwegian stubbornness that is older than the prize itself.
We read reports. The institute’s advisers write them, thick dull documents, and we argue. Our chairman told the BBC once that in the final meeting “there is a high temperature.” High temperature, for a Norwegian, means someone slightly raised an eyebrow and then apologized for it. We don’t do high temperature. We do a long silence, and then Kristin says “well,” and everyone knows exactly what “well” meant, and it’s settled. That’s our shouting. “Well.” You’d have to be raised here to hear the violence in it.
Now. This year. I will not say the name, because we never say the name, but you know the name.
A certain head of state wanted this prize the way a child wants a thing in a shop window, which is to say loudly, and in public, and with the full belief that wanting it was itself the argument. He said he deserved it. He said he’d ended eight wars, a number that grew most times he said it, like a fish. He had other heads of state phone us. Israel’s prime minister posted it on the internet, “Give him the Nobel.” The leaders of Cambodia and Pakistan announced they’d nominated him, as though announcing it were part of it, as though we tally mentions. A man flew around the globe collecting endorsements for a Norwegian committee the way you’d collect signatures for a petition to the council about a noisy dog.
And here, uff da, is the detail I treasure, the one that makes me smile into my coffee. The nomination deadline is the 31st of January. He took office on the 20th. So for all the phone calls, all the posts, all the gilded lobbying, the only nominations that could possibly count for this year’s prize were filed in the first eleven days of his term, before he had, by his own arithmetic, ended a single one of the eight wars. He campaigned all year for a prize whose window had shut while he was still hanging up his coat. We didn’t have to reject him. The calendar did. We just watched. Norwegians are very good at watching. We have long winters.
People think we sit there weighing his deeds. We don’t. That’s the thing I can’t make the world understand. We’re not grading his homework. We don’t owe anyone the prize for a ceasefire, however real, however loud the announcement. “He made peace” is not a sentence that ends in a medal, the way he believes it does, the way he believes every good thing ends in his name on it. The will of a dead Swede says the prize goes to whoever did the most for fraternity between nations. A dead Swede, I should add, who made his entire fortune inventing dynamite and selling arms, and spent his last years horrified at his own obituary, which called him a merchant of death, and so bought his way to immortality as a man of peace. The whole prize is one guilty arms dealer’s attempt to launder his name. We are, all of us, administering a dead man’s public relations. I find this clarifying. It keeps me humble. It should keep everyone humble, and it keeps, by my count, no one humble at all.
So who did we give it to?
An eighty-five-year-old woman. A judge. Born in Durban, under apartheid, granddaughter of a Tamil man who came to South Africa as indentured labor, a bus driver’s daughter from the poor Indian quarter, who became the first non-white woman to run a law practice in her province, who defended Mandela’s people when defending them was dangerous, who sat on the Rwanda tribunal and the court at the Hague, and who, at eighty-five, is right now a judge weighing whether a genocide is a genocide. When we told the world, our chairman said the rule of law “underpins the system we have set up to ensure peace,” and that “peace requires justice.” She wasn’t even in Oslo. She was in Nuremberg. In courtroom 600. The actual room where they tried the Nazis. You cannot stage that. God staged that, and God, it turns out, is a better satirist than any of us.
She did not phone us. She did not post. No prime minister demanded it for her on the internet. She had, as far as our deliberations are concerned, the one qualification the loud man could never manufacture, which is that she wanted the work and not the medal. The medal finds those people. It flees the ones who chase it. This is not a rule we wrote. It’s just the only pattern the hundred-odd years of our mistakes has ever shown.
The reaction from across the ocean was immediate. His spokesman posted that we “place politics over peace.” Ja. Perhaps. We’re five damp pensioners in a rainy city; of course it’s political, it was always political, it was political when we gave it to a sitting American president nine months into his first term for the promise of things he had not yet done, and we have been quietly embarrassed about that one for fifteen years, so believe me, we had a particular reason this year to prefer a woman with fifty years of verdicts behind her over a man with eight wars in front of him and a deadline already behind him.
Here is what he will never understand, the thing I’d tell him on the tram if he ever took one. We are the one prize he cannot buy, cannot post his way to, cannot have a friendly dictator phone in for him. Not because we’re incorruptible, nei, we’re as vain and wrong and human as the portraits on our wall. But because the entire point of the thing, the only power a small cold country’s book club has ever held, is that it goes to the person not performing the wanting. The moment you demand it, you’ve proven you don’t understand what it’s for, and proving that is itself the disqualification. He ran the most expensive campaign in the history of the prize and the campaign was the reason. He was never losing to Navi Pillay. He was losing to the concept.
It’s dark now. Four o’clock dark. The buns are gone. Kristin said “well” an hour ago and we all went home. I’m on the tram with my wet shoes, and somewhere across the water a very powerful man is explaining to a camera that the prize is rigged, that we’re corrupt, that he’ll win it next year, and he genuinely might, we’re only five idiots and we’ve been wrong before, Kissinger is still on the wall.
But not this year. This year an old woman in Nuremberg, in the room where the law once stared down the exact kind of man who thinks wanting a thing loudly enough should make it his, got a phone call she didn’t ask for.
That’s the job. We don’t reward the man who ends the war and announces it.
We reward the woman who spent fifty years deciding what a war was.
He’ll never see the difference. That’s rather the whole point of him.
Takk for i dag. I have to change trams.
Karan Bedi retweeted
Delhi has housed at least 18 empires & is dotted with their remains. The history nerd in me has always wanted to trace the kingdoms who built these monuments, where in Delhi were they built & where their remains stand today.
I've made a website for this: kaustubh-misra.github.io/del…
Karan Bedi retweeted
Take this as a rant.
Take this as something a long time coming
Take this from someone who's spent his life in factories growing up.
We need to develop a better ecosystem for ourselves to thrive!
A +ve critique on India's manufacturing scene.
Karan Bedi retweeted
Seriously, this deserves an Oscar nomination :)
Total banger - what AI is doing to the world in general... and vibe coding in particular!
Good example of why the hyperscalers, neoclouds, chips guys, memory guys and power supply guys are going to be infinite money machines
This looks like N64 quality!!! Amazing
We're starting to leave the territory where you'd test an LLM by e.g. "create an svg of pelican on a bicycle". As one idea to generalize it, I was interested what Opus 5 would do if I gave it the first paragraph of the Lord of the Rings, a 1M token budget (~$10) and asked for three js render of it. Opus went off for ~2 hours and wrote 5500 lines of code that (procedurally) rendered the story. It's kind of janky but fun. But it's a bit mindboggling that the LLM has to place and orchestrate various polygon assets in (x,y,z) coordinates and write code that animates it all, and that it even does anything at all.
I also like this kind of examples because no one in their right mind would ever spend the time to write something this custom but LLMs have all the stamina and patience in the world, so it's an example where we go from "no one would ever do this" to "sure, why not, it's ~free". There might be a lot more. But I'm excited about creating hyper custom worlds that you can imagine dropping players into, e.g. here to participate in the LoTR story as a spectator NPC, or one of the characters, or etc. Something like an ephemeral GTA of X on demand.
Last thought is that the domain of worlds/games exposes a weakness in LLMs: they can't easily audit their work because they aren't able to efficiently and natively perceive videos or play games within them. Here, Opus 5 had to very slowly and painstakingly take screenshots at different points, and it messed up a few times and created a bunch of jank. An example of raw capability (multimodal, gameplay) that I think is still quite lacking.
Karan Bedi retweeted
We're starting to leave the territory where you'd test an LLM by e.g. "create an svg of pelican on a bicycle". As one idea to generalize it, I was interested what Opus 5 would do if I gave it the first paragraph of the Lord of the Rings, a 1M token budget (~$10) and asked for three js render of it. Opus went off for ~2 hours and wrote 5500 lines of code that (procedurally) rendered the story. It's kind of janky but fun. But it's a bit mindboggling that the LLM has to place and orchestrate various polygon assets in (x,y,z) coordinates and write code that animates it all, and that it even does anything at all.
I also like this kind of examples because no one in their right mind would ever spend the time to write something this custom but LLMs have all the stamina and patience in the world, so it's an example where we go from "no one would ever do this" to "sure, why not, it's ~free". There might be a lot more. But I'm excited about creating hyper custom worlds that you can imagine dropping players into, e.g. here to participate in the LoTR story as a spectator NPC, or one of the characters, or etc. Something like an ephemeral GTA of X on demand.
Last thought is that the domain of worlds/games exposes a weakness in LLMs: they can't easily audit their work because they aren't able to efficiently and natively perceive videos or play games within them. Here, Opus 5 had to very slowly and painstakingly take screenshots at different points, and it messed up a few times and created a bunch of jank. An example of raw capability (multimodal, gameplay) that I think is still quite lacking.
So this video is a demonstration of what happens in an ADHD brain when you ask a stupid why question. Expect this happens in an instant and mostly after a few decades you give up on answering because most people don't think this way.
A BBC interviewer asked a Nobel physicist the simplest question in the world: why do two magnets push each other apart. He refused to answer it. What he did instead is the best seven minutes on thinking ever filmed.
The man is Richard Feynman, at home in 1983, no blackboard, no notes, sitting in an armchair.
He does not dodge because he cannot answer. He dodges because he wants you to see what the question is actually asking. So he takes an ordinary sentence, that a woman slipped on the ice and broke her hip, and starts asking why, and every answer opens another why, until the ground gives way.
Then he turns it around on the interviewer with a question about ice that sounds trivial and is not.
The point he arrives at is the uncomfortable one. Every explanation is only a translation into something you already accept without explanation. Magnets have no such translation. There is nothing more familiar than magnetism to reduce magnetism to, which is why every answer you were given at school was a picture, not a reason.
It matters more now than it did in 1983. Any tool will hand you a fluent answer in a second. Knowing which questions actually have a bottom is the part that is still yours.
One question. Seven minutes. It is in the video.
Karan Bedi retweeted
Why Gen Z Is Agitated
FY13 to FY23 Tax Return Data of Salaried Persons: Inflation-Adjusted Wage Growth in 10 Yrs (a) Below ₹10L: -21% (b) ₹10L to ₹50L: -39% (c) Above ₹50L: -46%; Purchasing power hugely down in 10 yrs; Nominal wage growth is flat.
Working Class: The Lost Decade
The Income Tax Return Statistics released by the I.T. Department for FY13 and FY23 reveal what is going on with salaried taxpayers in the last 10 years. Writer and journalist Monika Halan @monikahalan has published eye-opening data in her HT column today.
Definitions:
a. Nominal Wage = Wage Not Adjusted for Inflation
b. Real Wage = Inflation-Adjusted Wage (Real Purchasing Power)
Annual Inflation Rate from FY13 to FY23 (Ministry Data) is as follows:
Using CPI (MOSPI, Base 2024=100): Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 55.6 in March 2013 and 93.3 in March 2023. This means cumulative inflation of 68% over the decade (Inflation: 5.3% per year average).
FY13 to FY23
Income Below ₹10 Lakh PA
Nominal Wage Growth: +2.8%/yr
Inflation-adj Growth: -2.4%/yr
Real Change in 10 yrs: -21.5%
Income ₹10 Lakh to ₹50 Lakh PA
Nominal Wage Growth: +0.3%/yr
Inflation-adj Growth: -4.8%/yr
Real Change in 10 yrs: -38.7%
Income Above ₹50 Lakh P.A.
Nominal Wage Growth: -1.1%/yr
Inflation-adj Growth: -6.0%/yr
Real Change in 10 yrs: -46.4%
It Means: On average, if your annual salary was ₹1 cr in FY13, your nominal (on paper) salary in FY23 is ₹89L, and your real salary (adjusted for inflation @ 5.3% per year) is ₹53.6L.
For a salary earner on average:
High Income:
Purchasing Power is down 47%
Middle Income:
Purchasing Power is down 39%
Low Income:
Purchasing Power is down 21%
The low-income group (below ₹10 lakh p.a.) is the least hit in terms of wage stagnation and wage de-growth.
GDP Growth vs. Wage Growth
Question:
From FY13 to FY23, how the annual nominal GDP growth is around 11%, while annual nominal wage growth is only 2.8% for lower income, 0.3% (flat) for middle income, and -1% (negative) for higher income salaried individuals?
Answer:
a. Demographic Dividend: India adds roughly 1 crore young individuals to the working-age population every year. As these new workers join the formal economy, they add to the nation’s productivity (GDP), receive salaries, and become taxpayers.
b. Nearly all of the GDP growth (related to salaried employees) comes from more taxpayers entering the system rather than existing taxpayers earning substantially more within their income band.
c. Since labour supply is more than demand, the bargaining power of employers increases. As a result, the salaries of existing workers remain flat or negative.
d. So, India’s GDP growth story is a labour supply-driven growth story, and not a labour demand-driven (wage-growth driven) story.
e. Upward Mobility: Some smart or lucky individuals manage to move up the income bands through skill upgrades, job switching, etc. But the vast majority remain stuck within their band, and keep losing the inflation battle.
Gen Z’s Uncertain Future
a. India is not an export-led or manufacturing-led economy. India’s growth story is a domestic consumption growth story. But the massive “demographic dividend” which India enjoyed for so long is now ending. Nothing lasts forever.
b. India urgently needs to move from a labour-supply driven economy to real wage-growth driven economy. Otherwise, once the demographic tailwind ends in a few years, there will be no wage tailwind to replace it.
c. Economists like Dr. Arvind Subramanian @arvindsubraman and Dr. Raghuram Rajan have long said that consumption in India is broken. Now we know that’s because wage growth is broken.
ENDQUOTE
“Poverty is the parent of revolution.” – Aristotle, Politics: Book II (4th Century BC)
@arabicatrader
Karan Bedi retweeted
Meta lost $232 billion in a single trading day because Apple changed one setting. It was the largest one-day destruction of value in market history. Zuckerberg's new WSJ op-ed about superintelligence belonging to everyone was written on that scar.
The strategy underneath it has a name, commoditize your complement. Joel Spolsky wrote it up in 2002. When the layer next to you becomes free, pricing power collapses there and value flows to your layer instead. Meta has run this play every time a chokepoint threatened it.
Servers were the chokepoint, so it open-sourced its data center designs in 2011 with Open Compute. Frontend talent was the chokepoint, so it open-sourced React in 2013. AI research was the chokepoint, so it open-sourced PyTorch in 2017. Now models are the chokepoint, so it open-sourced Llama.
The Apple wound explains the urgency. Meta paid the 30% tax for over a decade, then App Tracking Transparency landed in April 2021 and the bill arrived in February 2022. A $10 billion annual revenue hit and a 26% stock drop in one session. Zuckerberg knows exactly what it costs when someone else owns the platform.
Which is why Meta can afford this play and its rivals can't. OpenAI and Anthropic sell intelligence directly, by the token. Meta sells attention. Free superintelligence for everyone attacks their revenue line and leaves Meta's untouched. Zuckerberg is spending upwards of $600 billion on US infrastructure through 2028 to make his competitors' core product worth zero.
The philosophical case in the op-ed is real. So is the scar tissue. This is a founder who spent 20 years paying rent on someone else's platform and watched a single toggle in Cupertino take a tenth of his revenue.
He's right that concentrated superintelligence is dangerous. He learned it the expensive way.
Karan Bedi retweeted
The age of the 40-year-old founder is back.
Bryant Chou spent 12 years as CTO of Webflow, which now powers something like 1.5% of the entire internet. He's back in the current YC batch with Ploy, an AI marketing platform, and he describes himself as "a bit of a boomer, double the age of the YC founders." But over 13% of his batch is already using his product, within months of launch.
There is a side of the argument which destroyed one of the main edges young founders have, which was being faster and cheaper at building.... speed is everyones game.
If what's left is knowing what to build this is more likely to come from spending 15 years watching an industry up close, collecting the thousand small frustrations that tell you where the real problem is. Bryant can build an anti-slop website tool because he spent over a decade learning exactly why websites are slop.
So I'm updating. I don't think it's young vs. old. I think AI rewards whoever has the most domain knowledge to point it at, and only sometimes is this younger founders who are thinking outside of the box...
Karan Bedi retweeted
I teared up watching this. I’ll never be half the man he is. I’ll never have the courage to face the police and risk getting arrested. I’ll never have the courage to travel 1000 kms with nothing except a bit of Chana and Achaar. Hats off to the courageous youth like him.
Karan Bedi retweeted
Kudos to @BlueTokaiCoffee Connaught Place.
I didnt even know a coffee shop could muster up a first aid station that nobody else could (or wanted to...like Haldiram).
Proud investor 🫡 – at Delhi, India





























