thatoneangrydude

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So this is how the Ledger did overall in predicting the outcome of this election. We still have a few outstanding races, so I am not including those in my analysis. But overall, I am pleased with the outcome: Senate: Dems ✅ (we gave Dems 68% · 54 Dem seats). We projected Dems to take 52 seats House: Dems ✅ (we gave Dems 92% · 251 Dem seats) We projected Dems to have 238 seats Winners called: 438/468 (93.6% right) Competitive races: 53/73 (races we had under 90%) Brier score: 0.048 (experts 0.052 · lower is better) Governors: 22 D (forecast 20, range 15–26) 2026 midterms · graded against the final forecast, published before polls closed #polling #midtersm2026

The final Prediction of the cycle! Woot here we go! Senate: D 52 Rep: 48 with Dems having a 62% chance of winning and Rep having a 35% of winning House: Dems 234 Rep 201 with Rep having a 8% chance of taking control and Dems having a 92% chance of taking control. And of course the long stufff: 🔵 North Carolina - Cooper +8.6 · 95% (Flip) 🔵 Maine - Jackson +2.1 · 66% (Flip) 🔵 Texas - Talarico +1.6 · 64% (Flip) 🔵 Ohio - Brown +1.0 · 57% (Flip) 🔵 Kansas - Hamilton +0.1 · 50% (Flip) 🔵 Delaware - Coons +31.6 · 99% 🔵 Oregon - Merkley +29.8 · 98% 🔵 Rhode Island - Reed +29.1 · 100% 🔵 New Jersey - Booker +25.8 · 97% 🔵 Massachusetts - Markey +25.6 · 100% 🔵 Virginia - Warner +23.4 · 95% 🔵 New Mexico - Luján +16.6 · 100% 🔵 Colorado - Hickenlooper +15.7 · 97% 🔵 Illinois - Stratton +13.2 · 98% 🔵 Georgia - Ossoff +9.4 · 96% 🔵 New Hampshire - Pappas +7.4 · 92% 🔵 Minnesota - Flanagan +6.0 · 88% 🔵 Michigan - El-Sayed +3.7 · 77% 🔴 West Virginia - Capito +37.8 · 100% 🔴 Wyoming - Hageman +33.0 · 99% 🔴 Oklahoma - Hern +24.6 · 100% 🔴 Tennessee - Hagerty +22.4 · 100% 🔴 Montana - Alme +21.7 · 100% 🔴 Alabama - Moore +16.6 · 100% 🔴 Arkansas - Cotton +15.9 · 99% 🔴 Kentucky - Barr +14.5 · 96% 🔴 South Dakota - Rounds +12.3 · 99% 🔴 Mississippi - Hyde-Smith +9.2 · 86% 🔴 Idaho - Risch +8.4 · 89% 🔴 Florida - Moody +7.1 · 92% 🔴 Louisiana - Letlow +6.0 · 78% 🔴 South Carolina - Graham +3.7 · 76% 🔴 Nebraska - Ricketts +3.6 · 75% 🔴 Iowa - Hinson +0.7 · 55% 🔴 Alaska - Sullivan +0.5 · 54%

Final Prediction of the Midterm Elections: Senate: Dems 51 Rep 48; House: Dems 234 Rep 201 Race specifics for the Senate: 🔵 North Carolina - Cooper +9.3 · 97% (Flip) 🔵 Maine - Jackson +1.3 · 61% (Flip) 🔵 Texas - Talarico +1.2 · 60% (Flip) 🔵 Ohio - Brown +1.1 · 58% (Flip) 🔵 Delaware - Coons +31.7 · 99% 🔵 Oregon - Merkley +29.9 · 98% 🔵 Rhode Island - Reed +28.5 · 100% 🔵 Massachusetts - Markey +27.4 · 100% 🔵 New Jersey - Booker +25.9 · 97% 🔵 Colorado - Hickenlooper +24.9 · 96% 🔵 Virginia - Warner +23.4 · 96% 🔵 New Mexico - Luján +16.6 · 100% 🔵 Illinois - Stratton +13.2 · 98% 🔵 Georgia - Ossoff +9.4 · 96% 🔵 Minnesota - Flanagan +6.4 · 89% 🔵 New Hampshire - Pappas +6.3 · 88% 🔵 Michigan - El-Sayed +3.3 · 74% 🔴 West Virginia - Capito +37.7 · 100% 🔴 Wyoming - Hageman +32.9 · 99% 🔴 Oklahoma - Hern +24.6 · 100% 🔴 Tennessee - Hagerty +22.4 · 100% 🔴 Montana - Alme +21.7 · 100% 🔴 Alabama - Moore +16.6 · 100% 🔴 Arkansas - Cotton +15.9 · 99% 🔴 Kentucky - Barr +14.4 · 96% 🔴 South Dakota - Rounds +12.3 · 99% 🔴 Mississippi - Hyde-Smith +9.2 · 86% 🔴 Idaho - Risch +8.4 · 89% 🔴 Florida - Moody +7.1 · 92% 🔴 Louisiana - Letlow +6.0 · 78% 🔴 South Carolina - Graham +3.8 · 76% 🔴 Nebraska - Ricketts +3.6 · 75% 🔴 Iowa - Hinson +0.7 · 55% 🔴 Alaska - Sullivan +0.4 · 53% 🔴 Kansas - Marshall +0.2 · 52% The House: 🔵 MT-1 - Forstag +1.9 · 66% (Flip) 🔵 IA-3 - Garriott +1.9 · 62% (Flip) 🔵 PA-1 - Harvie +1.5 · 61% (Flip) 🔵 IA-2 - James +1.3 · 59% (Flip) 🔵 PA-8 - Cognetti +0.9 · 56% (Flip) 🔵 WI-3 - Cooke +0.7 · 54% (Flip) 🔵 PA-10 - Stelson +0.4 · 54% (Flip) 🔵 NC-11 - Ager +0.4 · 53% (Flip) 🔵 OH-9 - Kaptur +1.5 · 60% 🔵 NC-1 - Davis +1.2 · 59% 🔵 ME-2 - Dunlap +0.8 · 56% 🔴 AL-2 - Marques +2.7 · 69% (Flip) 🔴 OH-15 - Carey +2.9 · 71% 🔴 SC-1 - Honeycutt +2.8 · 72% 🔴 OH-7 - Miller +2.6 · 68% 🔴 TX-15 - Cruz +2.5 · 68% 🔴 MI-4 - Huizenga +2.5 · 68% 🔴 CO-3 - Hurd +2.0 · 65% 🔴 FL-7 - Elijah +1.9 · 64% 🔴 OH-10 - Turner +1.7 · 62% 🔴 VA-1 - Wittman +1.4 · 62% 🔴 NY-1 - LaLota +1.4 · 58% 🔴 KY-6 - Alvarado +1.2 · 60% 🔴 MO-2 - Wagner +1.2 · 59% 🔴 WI-1 - Steil +1.0 · 58% 🔴 MI-10 - Bouchard +0.4 · 53% 🔴 TX-35 - Cruz +0.3 · 52% 🔴 FL-22 - Askar +0.1 · 52% #polling #midtersm2026

My second to last two predictions. Senate: 51 Dems and 49 Rep. With the Dems having a 60% chance of taking the senate. House: Dems 234 Rep 201. With the Dems having a 90% chance of taking the house. I'll post one more on Sunday or Monday.

My current predictions 8 days out.. I will keep it as updated as I can.

Updated as of 10/23/24 Senate Forecast from my model the Ledger: Senate Forecast 🔵 North Carolina - Cooper +9.0 · 95% (Flip) 🔵 Ohio - Brown +1.5 · 61% (Flip) 🔵 Texas - Talarico +0.5 · 54% (Flip) 🔵 Maine - Jackson +0.4 · 53% (Flip) 🔵 Delaware - Coons +32.2 · 99% 🔵 Oregon - Merkley +30.4 · 98% 🔵 Rhode Island - Reed +28.5 · 100% 🔵 Massachusetts - Markey +27.4 · 100% 🔵 New Jersey - Booker +26.4 · 97% 🔵 Colorado - Hickenlooper +25.4 · 96% 🔵 Virginia - Warner +24.0 · 96% 🔵 New Mexico - Luján +16.5 · 99% 🔵 Illinois - Stratton +15.3 · 99% 🔵 Georgia - Ossoff +8.3 · 93% 🔵 New Hampshire - Pappas +6.1 · 86% 🔵 Minnesota - Flanagan +4.0 · 76% 🔵 Michigan - El-Sayed +2.3 · 67% 🔴 West Virginia - Capito +37.1 · 100% 🔴 Wyoming - Hageman +32.3 · 99% 🔴 Oklahoma - Hern +24.6 · 100% 🔴 Tennessee - Hagerty +22.4 · 100% 🔴 Montana - Alme +20.8 · 100% 🔴 Alabama - Moore +18.9 · 100% 🔴 Arkansas - Cotton +16.2 · 99% 🔴 Kentucky - Barr +14.4 · 95% 🔴 South Dakota - Rounds +13.7 · 99% 🔴 Mississippi - Hyde-Smith +11.2 · 90% 🔴 Louisiana - Letlow +8.6 · 84% 🔴 Idaho - Risch +7.8 · 87% 🔴 Florida - Moody +7.4 · 91% 🔴 South Carolina - Graham +3.7 · 73% 🔴 Nebraska - Ricketts +2.6 · 66% 🔴 Kansas - Marshall +1.3 · 59% 🔴 Iowa - Hinson +0.9 · 57% 🔴 Alaska - Sullivan +0.6 · 54% The Ledger Forecast as of Oct 23, 2026 · model 2026.10.13

Some of the closest races right now as of 10/19/26

Updates for the House:

New Senate update from the Ledger Forcast: Senate Forecast 🔵 North Carolina - Cooper +8.1 · 92% (Flip) 🔵 Ohio - Brown +1.5 · 60% (Flip) 🔵 Texas - Talarico +0.8 · 56% (Flip) 🔵 Maine - Jackson +0.5 · 54% (Flip) 🔵 Rhode Island - Reed +31.5 · 100% 🔵 Delaware - Coons +31.3 · 99% 🔵 Oregon - Merkley +29.5 · 98% 🔵 Massachusetts - Markey +25.6 · 100% 🔵 New Jersey - Booker +25.5 · 96% 🔵 Colorado - Hickenlooper +24.5 · 96% 🔵 Virginia - Warner +18.2 · 99% 🔵 New Mexico - Luján +16.3 · 99% 🔵 Illinois - Stratton +12.6 · 92% 🔵 Georgia - Ossoff +9.1 · 93% 🔵 New Hampshire - Pappas +6.0 · 85% 🔵 Minnesota - Flanagan +3.8 · 74% 🔵 Michigan - El-Sayed +2.6 · 68% 🔴 West Virginia - Capito +38.1 · 100% 🔴 Wyoming - Hageman +33.3 · 99% 🔴 Oklahoma - Hern +24.9 · 100% 🔴 Tennessee - Hagerty +22.8 · 100% 🔴 Montana - Alme +20.4 · 100% 🔴 Alabama - Moore +19.7 · 99% 🔴 Arkansas - Cotton +18.0 · 99% 🔴 Kentucky - Barr +14.9 · 96% 🔴 Mississippi - Hyde-Smith +11.6 · 91% 🔴 Louisiana - Letlow +8.9 · 85% 🔴 Idaho - Risch +8.7 · 89% 🔴 Florida - Moody +7.5 · 90% 🔴 South Dakota - Rounds +7.4 · 86% 🔴 South Carolina - Graham +4.0 · 73% 🔴 Nebraska - Ricketts +3.0 · 68% 🔴 Kansas - Marshall +1.5 · 60% 🔴 Iowa - Hinson +0.8 · 55% 🔴 Alaska - Sullivan +0.4 · 52% The Ledger Forecast as of Oct 14, 2026 · model 2026.10.13

Read about how I created The Ledger Forecast here: theledgerforcast.substack.co…

Updated predictions from my last one. Not much has changed: Senate Forecast 🔵 North Carolina - Cooper +7.5 · 90% (Flip) 🔵 Ohio - Brown +1.5 · 60% (Flip) 🔵 Texas - Talarico +1.1 · 58% (Flip) 🔵 Maine - Jackson +0.5 · 54% (Flip) 🔵 Alaska - Peltola +0.3 · 52% (Flip) 🔵 Delaware - Coons +31.3 · 99% 🔵 Oregon - Merkley +29.5 · 98% 🔵 Massachusetts - Markey +25.6 · 100% 🔵 New Jersey - Booker +25.6 · 96% 🔵 Colorado - Hickenlooper +24.6 · 96% 🔵 Rhode Island - Reed +21.7 · 100% 🔵 Virginia - Warner +18.2 · 99% 🔵 New Mexico - Luján +17.2 · 99% 🔵 Illinois - Stratton +12.6 · 92% 🔵 Georgia - Ossoff +9.1 · 93% 🔵 New Hampshire - Pappas +6.1 · 85% 🔵 Minnesota - Flanagan +3.8 · 74% 🔵 Michigan - El-Sayed +2.5 · 67% 🔴 West Virginia - Capito +38.0 · 100% 🔴 Wyoming - Hageman +33.2 · 99% 🔴 Oklahoma - Hern +24.9 · 100% 🔴 Montana - Alme +24.1 · 100% 🔴 Tennessee - Hagerty +22.7 · 100% 🔴 Alabama - Moore +19.7 · 99% 🔴 Arkansas - Cotton +18.0 · 99% 🔴 Kentucky - Barr +14.8 · 95% 🔴 Mississippi - Hyde-Smith +11.6 · 91% 🔴 Louisiana - Letlow +8.9 · 85% 🔴 Idaho - Risch +8.7 · 89% 🔴 South Dakota - Rounds +7.5 · 86% 🔴 Florida - Moody +7.1 · 88% 🔴 South Carolina - Graham +4.0 · 73% 🔴 Nebraska - Ricketts +3.0 · 68% 🔴 Kansas - Marshall +1.5 · 60% 🔴 Iowa - Hinson +0.6 · 54% Forecast as of Oct 13, 2026 #polls #election #senate

Some forecasting I have done: 🔵 North Carolina - Cooper +7.4 · 90% (Flip) 🔵 Ohio - Brown +1.5 · 59% (Flip) 🔵 Texas - Talarico +1.1 · 58% (Flip) 🔵 Maine - Jackson +0.5 · 54% (Flip) 🔴 Florida - Moody +7.1 · 88% 🔴 Kansas - Marshall +1.8 · 61% #election2026 #senate

This scatter plot shows the relationship between Presidential Approvals and midterm losses for the Senate: