美股投资｜期权实盘｜资产配置 2020年入美股，2025年起专注期权，计划2033年退休。 记录交易判断，也讲亏损和纠错。 不荐股、不带单，一起为退休布局。
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Joined February 2020
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Anthropic正式定价区间70-78美元，最多募644亿，目标估值约1万亿。前几天误发的文件里还是70-80。更狠的是，10月底年化营收810亿，一个月多了100亿，估值只有营收的12倍出头。
老周认为：12倍不算疯，问题是增速能撑多久。
Anthropic上市，你会去抢吗？
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来认识几个新朋友。
我是老周，平时聊美股，也记期权实盘。今天截图里，账号曝光约116万；主页那条聊苹果的置顶帖，已经有178万次浏览。
新朋友来置顶底下打个招呼，顺便说说：你下次换手机，还会选苹果吗？
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October CPI: +0.4% m/m, core +0.3%. Both hotter than expected.
The twist: core was 0.296% (Timiraos), right at the 0.3% line Waller said could justify a 50bp hike.
Nasdaq futures down ~1%.
My take: 25bp in December is now the floor.
Are you positioned for 50?
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美国10月CPI环比+0.4%，核心+0.3%，双双高于预期。核心实际0.296%，正好卡在沃勒刚划的50基点门槛上。纳指期货跌近1%，2到5年期美债收益率至少涨10个基点。
老周认为：12月加25基点已是底线，市场该怕的是50。
12月真加50，你的仓位扛得住吗？
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Fed's Waller, hours before CPI: he backs a 25bp hike in December, and if core CPI prints ~0.3% or hotter, a 50bp hike "should be considered."
The twist: he says only 25 would put Fed credibility at risk.
My take: a 0.3% core print today puts 50bp in play.
Positioned for 50?
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Twitter-style rewrite, same rules, restructured:
The TQQQ regime-switch strategy that's been making the rounds on US retail forums 👇
The idea is simple: run 3x leverage while the trend is up, and step aside when it breaks. Don't ride TQQQ all the way down.
Every signal comes from where SPY closes relative to its 200-day moving average.
🐂 Bull mode
SPY closes 4%+ above its 200DMA → go 100% TQQQ in one shot.
🐻 Bear mode
SPY closes 3%+ below its 200DMA → dump all TQQQ, no second-guessing. Sit in cash, then dollar-cost average into QQQ over 6–12 months.
🔁 Re-entry
SPY gets back to 4%+ above its 200DMA → sell the QQQ, go all-in TQQQ again.
🛑 Overheat brake
QQQ 30% above its own 200DMA → start trimming leverage.
QQQ 40% above → exit completely.
📊 Backtest (from the original poster)
Since 2003: ~31% annualized.
Max drawdown: worse than −60%.
It runs well past 280 characters, so it posts as one long post with your Premium account. If you'd rather post a thread, you can split it at the dividers.
If anyone pushes back on the backtest: TQQQ only started trading in 2010. Anything before that has to be simulated 3x Nasdaq-100 returns, not real fund history.
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