Just a little goblin looking for the golden pot sharing information, discussing opinions, trading US and EU shares & options. No recommendations #DYOR
Joined March 2019
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UBS (double) downgrades $BESI.NA to Sell and expects a delay for meaningful Hybrid Bonding adoption from HBM4e to HBM5 which means TCB / conventional advanced packaging lifespan extends.
Hybrid bonding is not “wrong” but the timing and tool-intensity may be wrong (for now at least).
$AMZN Reading some sellside comments which see a pretty bullish AWS setup into Q3 earnings.
UBS raises PT to $348, forecasting 46% AWS operating margins in 2027 vs 38% Street, despite $300B+ capex, with +40.6% in revenue growth YoY.
Edgewater sees Q3 AWS revenue +40.9% YoY vs +37.6% consensus.
Goldman Sachs’ Taiwan PCB/CCL checks point to an accelerating AI hardware upgrade cycle.
Customers are increasingly funding supplier capacity expansions through LTAs/prepayments, while M10 materials command ~$800/sheet vs EMC’s ~$63 blended ASP.
ABF substrate CCL TAM could quadruple by 2028.
UBS bullish on PCB/CCL:
Q-glass is currently on hold after failed sampling, while an M9/PTFE hybrid has emerged as the more feasible solution - potentially reshuffling winners across the PCB/CCL supply chain.
Meanwhile, 800G/1.6T optical modules and custom ASICs are becoming important nearterm PCB drivers, reducing dependence on Nvidia alone. UBS therefore sees the recent weakness as more of a reset than the end of the AI PCB cycle.
$MU New quarterly bonus scheme linked to company profits: 50% in cash and 50% in shares
Barclays´ EU team flags a potential shift in AI infra from “capacity at any price” to “capacity at acceptable returns.”
Anthropic/Nscale pricing implies forward compute economics well below recent scarcity-driven $CRWV /$SPCX AI levels, suggesting buyers are starting to push back.
Seeing mildly negative readthrough for US peers like $ETN $HUBB $NVT $GEV $CRWV if scarcity-driven pricing/margins normalize.
But also potential +ive readthrough for Hyperscalers and AI Labs with lower equipment and compute pricing improves ROI and can actually support more total AI deployment $AMZN $MSFT $GOOGL $META
Softbank down 6% today after credit risks rise to a new 4y-high as concerns grow over AI-related funding.
Might be too obvious, but watching $ORCL again today for a potential readthrough with overall AI sentiment being a bit shacky today after the Korean Elice Inc. IPO desaster
SoftBank (-10% in its Asian session today) is the cleanest readthrough here so far: it’s basically a leveraged equity bet on OpenAI with its ~11% stake.
Oracle is a bit different here and arguably even riskier. It’s tied to +-$300B in compute and data center buildout.
If OpenAI demand wobbles, $ORCL isn’t just a valuation story but a balance sheet story.
Short $ORCL today and seeing it even lower than early ARCA prints around $167 but pls dyor!
$CRWV upgraded to Buy at Goldman arguing the market is overstating financing risk and understating contract economics. Asset-backed DDTLs mean marginal funding costs look closer to ~7.5-10.5%, while new contracts around ~$13M/MW can still generate ~15% uIRRs; residual GPU value could push that toward 20-25%.
Positive for neocloud/AI infra peers with strong execution and financing access; also supportive for power, cooling, networking and storage vendors as enterprise AI deployment broadens. Biggest risk remains a future collapse in compute pricing once supply normalizes. $IREN $NBIS
Goldman Sachs just raised its global server TAM forecasts by 31% for 2027 and 45% for 2028, now approaching $1.6 Trillion (!!!) by 2028.
Both AI and traditional servers are driving the upgrade, fueled by AI infrastructure expansion, higher memory costs and richer configurations.
FinX discussing how $QQQ performs today and what a massacre this is ... but imagine you are a leveraged Korean seeing this - unable to react in any way, knowing the circuit breaker will enter the stage early monday ... that might hurt even more
$TSM ´s Wendell Huang "It is a bit too early to share the CapEx number beyond this year" ... it is October, when is the right time then?
$NVTS Wolfe has an interesting take here today (if you are interested in latest power developments):
Bottom Line:
800VDC looks like a real CY27 revenue inflection, not just a longdated theme.
Stock´s down 68% from this year´s highs with even the ALLATIS program news from late September being sold rapidly.
Sidecar bookings are already in backlog, mid-2027 ramp is expected, hyperscalers should lead GaN-based 800V to 50V adoption, and NVTS sees roughly $10–15k GaN and $5–8k SiC content per MW, excluding protection/IVR upside.
Might not be the classic daytrade but maybe smth to keep in mind for the mid-/longerm. Stock in kinda no man´s land at the moment so maybe things have to develop first.
$NVTS | Daytrading idea
800V moves from roadmap to backlog
Bullish thesis. Read today’s Hot on the Street:
tradersecho.com/home
Something you could have expected with most trackers showing compressed wait times for the $AAPL iPhone 18 pro ... I mean ofc you get it faster if less people want it!
NIKKEI: APPLE CUTS IPHONE 18 PRO ORDERS DUE TO SOFT DEMAND
"Component orders for this month have been cut by at least 15% from the volumes originally requested due to weaker-than-expected market demand for the iPhone 18 Pro series."
$AAPL
