US 10-year hitting 5.31% taking out 2007 peak - Means long end effectively ignored softer PCE relief & gone back to pricing the bigger structural issues: resilient growth, energy inflation, heavy issuance/fiscal concerns, and term premium. - That is exactly the distinction we’ve been making: Front end = Fed expectations. Long end = inflation + supply + fiscal + term premium + global bond pressure.

Carry Watch: #USDCHF 6 straight up days 0.8182 → 0.8358 (+2.15%) a meaningful move fits what we’ve been watching in CHFJPY/AUDJPY 10Y >5.30% + equities holding up + CHF weakening = not a classic fear trade. If markets were genuinely becoming frightened by the long-end move, We’d expect CHF to catch more of a bid. Instead, Spoos are climbing the wall of worry and CHF is being sold. hat supports the idea that, at least for now, the bond selloff is being interpreted more as growth/term-premium/fiscal/inflation repricing than an immediate systemic-risk event.

We separate three issues: 1. Verbal intervention: Increasing pressure on excessive yen weakness. 2. Monetary divergence: Japan's policy normalization versus the Fed's tightening bias. 3. Actual intervention: A separate decision that requires more than officials attending the same meetings. As we've discussed, #USDJPY may attract the headlines, but #AUDJPY and #CHFJPY can be more revealing about underlying carry positioning.

Friday TGIF Trading — October 9, 2026 PREMARKET CROSS-ASSET PLAYBOOK Morning! Happy Friday. Interesting setup to finish the week: Nasdaq is leading, crude is retreating, gold and copper are recovering, but Treasury yields remain stubbornly elevated. The important distinction is that we're seeing a rebound in risk appetite, not necessarily a wholesale improvement in financial conditions. 1. Premarket scorecard Dow futures +0.09% S&P 500 +0.37% Nasdaq futures +0.86%

With the up down on Oil we still have exactly the trading environment we've been dealing with until proven otherwise: Physical bearish development + diplomatic optimism → oil down sharply then Iran says no / sequencing Disagreement / military headline → oil can reverse $2–4 immediately. #OOTT $XLE

France fiscal risk ↑ → OAT/Bund spread ↑ → European currency pressure. French to German 10-year bond spread widened a further five bps to 109 bps. (up 110bps y-t-d) #France now expects public debt to hit 119.3% of GDP in 2026 and 121.7% in 2027, while its borrowing premium over Germany has pushed above 100 bp, the widest since the euro-area debt crisis. At the same time, the government is trying to find €54 billion savings for the 2027 budget amid political resistance.

Cautious Investor #21 — Long-End Stress, Carry Rotation & AI Credit Cracks 10s above 5%. 30s near 20-year highs. MOVE surging. Breadth narrowing. CHF funding rotation emerging. AI credit starting to crack. Oil remains the inflation transmission mechanism. traderscommunity.com/cautiou… #Markets #Bonds #AI

Not all Europe is the same .... French to German 10-year bond spread widened nine bps to 105 bps. It's borrowing premium over Germany has pushed above 100 bp, the widest since the euro-area debt crisis. France now expects public debt to hit 119.3% of GDP in 2026 and 121.7% in 2027 At the same time, the government is trying to find €54 billion savings for the 2027 budget amid political resistance #CAC40 #EURUSD

Oil, yields and the funding trade — where is the stress actually building? WTI above $100. The 30Y pressing a near-20-year extreme. MOVE finally waking up. Yet semis haven’t broken and carry remains alive — its funding leg is changing. This week’s Cautious Investor: #Oil #Bonds #CarryTrade #Macro traderscommunity.com/cautiou…

Has #Gold, $GDX & $GDXU completed their correction? The bearish take would have the move off ATH as a Wave 1 down, here isa possible bullish sequence which fits in with sentiment ABC - failed (X) ABC complete - impulse needed to confirm - some fibs above for P&Ds, thoughts? Here is the high-octane ETF @dapstats @M4VERICK_CARTER

One for the punters with RXT back over $5 An uber bullish alt ABC complete for Rackspace with earnings coming up its big move prior to the collapse with Semis etc was the $AMD deal - does that get more air? $RXT 5.11 +0.34 (+7.02%) Keep an eye on Call activity

Bond Wrap: U.S. Treasuries started the week with yields on longer tenors back to last week’s highs. Yields on 10s and 30s within ten basis points of their respective 2026 highs from early May 2-yr yield also within ten basis points of its 2026 high, which was formed last week. #Yields: 2-yr: +4 bps to 4.21% 3-yr: +5 bps to 4.25% 5-yr: +6 bps to 4.33% 10-yr: +6 bps to 4.60% 30-yr: +5 bps to 5.12%

AI unwind. Oil shock. Bonds hesitate. Semiconductors tumbled, KOSPI leverage cracked, WTI surged 15.5% to $82.49 and the 10-year yield held near 4.54%. This week’s Cautious Investor looks at what broke, what held—and what matters next. traderscommunity.com/cautiou… #Markets #Oil

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF has bounced hard after spitting the 535-bear market threshold (20%) as per @knovaWave in the CI weekly. $SMH 585.23 +26.40 (+4.72%) Today memory names such as Sandisk & Micron $SNDK 1574.47, +183.52, +13.19% $MU 976.61, +111.15, +12.84% Along with semis such as Teradyne, Intel & Advanced Micro Devices are outperforming $TER 376.00, +42.24, +12.66% $INTC 104.62, +7.56, +7.79% $AMD 541.50, +37.93, +7.53%)

#USDJPY just traded 161.97 the highest level since the end of 1986. and just above the intervention hit high of mid 2024. But does Japan really mind? One thing to note Japan has been trying to get inflation since Adam was a boy and don't forget energy costs aside, they have been desiring a weak yen for those 40 years (at least) for their exports - Meanwhile this also strengthens Japan exports versus China i.e Yen/Yuan. China is in a currency war with #Japan and South Korea. Another fact Japan is the largest US treasury holder (outside the Fed0 and the strong USD helps those assets

AI mania is alive. Hawkish money is back. SpaceX and Micron kept the speculative flame burning, but Warsh, USDJPY, oil and the long bond are tightening the frame. Copper confirms the buildout. Oil controls the panic. The long bond prices both. traderscommunity.com/cautiou… #Macro #Markets #Oil #AI

Carry still rules. SpaceX mania, semis surging, credit spreads tightening and AUDJPY holding near highs all point to the same late-cycle message: High rates are hurting parts of the economy, but they have not yet broken the speculative bull market. Cautious Investor — Market Weekly: traderscommunity.com/cautiou…

Japanese debt slid to fresh lows for the year ahead of tomorrow’s 20-yr JGB auction. Bank of Japan is expected to meet with #JGB investors on Thursday and Friday. Q1 GDP 0.5% qtr/qtr (expected 0.4%; prior 0.2%); 2.1% yr/yr (expected 1.7%; last 0.8%). Q1 GDP Price Index 3.4% yr/yr (expected 3.1%; prior 3.4%) #USDJPY #NIkkei traderscommunity.com/japan-i…

U.S. 10Y yields are compressing near highs, with higher lows forming. 👉 Pressure is building at elevated levels A breakout reinforces the move higher.

Oil prices moved higher for the second consecutive session this week, WTI crude oil futures settling today's session $3.56 higher (+3.7%) at $99.95 per barrel. #OOTT $CL_F $UCO $XLE $XOM