https://xitter.cf/t.co/JOsOr9qozE Adam Crisafulli Most comprehensive and insightful market commentary Podcast link: https://xitter.cf/t.co/VjxUpmMDma

New York, NY
Joined July 2019
Listen to Vital Dawn on Spotify for Creators open.spotify.com/episode/5F2…
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DOJ seeks to block Alaska Senate result if Republican incumbent narrowly loses - Washington Post
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The geopolitical situation in the Middle East deteriorated further on Fri after Netanyahu ordered what he said would be the most intense military campaign in the West Bank in decadesafter an attack (which Hamas claimed responsibility for) killed two IDF soldiers.
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Starlink Mobile’s ongoing threat to legacy telecom and cable companies has major macro implications for the market in two ways: 1) it suggests SpaceX’s capex might be even larger than what investors are presently envisioning and 2) it’s creating pressure on AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile bonds (these are three of the most indebted companies on earth - corp. credit markets were already in flux because of what’s happening with AI, and now they are grappling with this wireless overhang).
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OpenAI has cut its valuation target to $1.25T for its latest funding round after facing resistance on a $1.4T price tag from some investors - FT
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If not for oil, 10-year yields would be at <4.5% today.
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"Hegseth wanted Eisenhower’s globe for his office. His staff broke it". Some might find this headline ironic in that one of the main architects of the US-led, post-war global order saw his globe destroyed by an individual (arguably) undermining that order. washingtonpost.com/national-…
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$BX "Demand for compute is accelerating, and we see no signs of that slowing down. Seldom my career have I seen such a supply constrained market of this scale"
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This should help AI a bit: Nebius today announced that it has entered into a $3.5 billion senior secured facility provided by Citi. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang tells CNBC that neocloud demand is ‘off the charts’ but capital is scarce
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$PHM "The rapid increase in interest rates has stretched affordability even further, made selling an existing home even harder, and has pushed even more consumers to the sidelines"
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Listen to Vital Dawn on Spotify for Creators open.spotify.com/episode/0yV…
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IBM's CEO on open-weight vs. frontier models: “Would you like something that's 10% of the cost if it's 90% as good as the best, or do you want to pay that 10 times higher cost? Some tasks require the best frontier models, but the vast majority, summarizing an email, examining a contract, answering a customer call, composing an email, all of those can be done as well with a much cheaper model” (this quote has been tweaked for clarity)
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"U.S. troops and diplomats evacuating Middle East posts, sources say" - NBC News. NBC News makes it sound like the Gulf withdrawal is larger than just Saudi Arabia
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$TSLA This is the most important/impressive part of the TSLA report: "FSD attach rate continued to grow, reaching over 75% of new vehicle deliveries in North America – our most mature market – a nearly twenty percentage point sequential increase"
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Follow-up: the State Dept. clarified that the departure order was only for Saudi Arabia, not the full region
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US State Dept. preparing to issue an ordered departure of some personnel and family members at US embassies across the Gulf - Reuters
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