The ForbesPredict Midterm Tracker—a sentiment-driven political prediction market operated by Axiomcasts LLC based on choices made by its readers—shows massive positive momentum for Democrats in both the Texas and Michigan Senate races as of November 1, 2026.
The latest data from the platform reveals significant sentiment shifts since the market launched on October 21, 2026:
Texas Senate Race: The ForbesPredict market places James Talarico’s odds of defeating Ken Paxton at 82%.
This marks an aggressive 17-percentage-point swing in Talarico's favor from his initial 65% baseline odds at debut.
Michigan Senate Race: Despite the high-profile drama surrounding Haley Stevens' cross-party defection, Abdul El-Sayed holds a commanding 74% chance of winning on the platform.
This tracks an even larger 25-point swing toward the Democrat compared to his split 49% odds on October 21.
Senate race Pollster Margin
New Hampshire
Added 16m ago poll from
University of New Hampshire Oct. 27-31
Pappas +12
Results: 54% Chris Pappas (D). 42% John Sununu (R).
2% Edmond Laplante (Oth.).
Kansas
2h ago poll from
The New York Times/Siena University Oct. 27 - Nov. 1
Hamilton +5
Results:
49% Adam Hamilton (D). 44% Roger Marshall (R). 4% David Graham (Lib.).
Texas
2h ago poll from
The New York Times/Siena University Oct. 27 - Nov. 1
Talarico +7
Results: 50% James Talarico (D). 43% Ken Paxton (R).
Michigan
2h ago poll from
The New York Times/Siena University Oct. 23 - Nov. 1
El-Sayed +11
Results:
53% Abdul El-Sayed (D). 42% Mike Rogers (R).
Ohio
2h ago poll from
The New York Times/Siena University Oct. 26 - Nov. 1
Brown +6
Results:
49% Sherrod Brown (D). 44% Jon Husted (R).
Iowa
2h ago poll from
The New York Times/Siena University Oct. 26 - Nov. 1
Turek +1
Results:
48% Josh Turek (D). 47% Ashley Hinson (R).
Maine
2h ago poll from
The New York Times/Siena University Oct. 27 - Nov. 1
Jackson +6
Results:
51% Troy Jackson (D). 45% Susan Collins (R)
Race Poll Results Spread
Sunday, November 1
Maine Senate - Collins vs. Jackson YouGov Jackson 52, Collins 47 Jackson+5
2026 Texas Senate - Paxton vs. Talarico YouGov
Talarico 51, Paxton 47 Talarico+4
2026 Michigan Senate - Rogers vs. El-Sayed YouGov
El-Sayed 51, Rogers 47 El-Sayed+4
2026 Kansas Senate - Marshall vs. Hamilton YouGov
Hamilton 50, Marshall 49 Hamilton+1
2026 Ohio Senate Election - Husted vs. Brown YouGov
Brown 50, Husted 48 Brown+2
2026 Ohio Senate Election - Husted vs. Brown InsiderAdvantage* Brown 49, Husted 47 Brown+2
2026 Iowa Senate - Hinson vs Turek YouGov
Hinson 49, Turek 50 Turek+1
2026 Nebraska Senate - Ricketts vs. Osborn YouGov
Ricketts 49, Osborn 49 Tie
2026 Minnesota Senate - Tafoya vs. Flanagan InsiderAdvantage* Flanagan 49, Tafoya 46 Flanagan+3
2026 North Carolina Senate - Whatley vs. Cooper YouGov Cooper 55, Whatley 44 Cooper+11
Why would the Dems "tolerate" her? She and her ugly concubine (no wonder he is marrying a fatty - the ugly guys always do) burned all of the bridges on their way out.
They will never be welcomed in any Dem Admin, any respectable law firm, and respectable university, any respectable corporation or organization.
The two of them will now be relegated to Fox, Newsmax, OANN, the Hatetage Foundation, and other MAGAss aligned klans.
I am not sure what they think the end game is here but they are personae non gratae.
Sour grapes and cry babyness are hallmarks of the bagging MAGAsses, American or otherwise.
Do they have any proof, any proof at all, of that elusive "proof" or is that locked away with the "proof" of the fraud in the 2020 American election????
Lula won in a free, fair, transparent, and secure election and the fugitive pretty boy Bolsonaro lost in a free, fair, transparent, and secure election.
Why don't you baggers GROW THE FUCK UP?????
You baggers think that a 1.1% outlier for philandering @KenPaxtonTX is significant but months of Talafreako being ahead in 95% of all polls is insignificant??
Is that correct????
WOW!!! These Brazilian MAGAsses are as delusional as the American breed - the MAGAss psychosis is spreading!
@RapidResponse47
@VP
@WhiteHouse
@realdonaldtrump
@SpeakerJohnson
@bennyjohnson
@SecScottBessent
@RudyGiuliani
@dbongino
@elonmusk
@TheFive
@DineshDSouza (immigrant par excellance)
@realBrandonGill (brown anchor baby wife)
@StephenM
@RealTomHoman (50K bribe taker)
@SecMullinDHS
@IlhanMN
@seanhannity (JACKAss extraordinaire)
@SenTedCruz (EduardOH! Rafael Cancun)
@AGToddBlanche (Toady)
@FBIDirectorKash (Beasty)
@NickAdamsinUSA (Japanese car owner)
@berniemoreno (@MaxMillerOH BFF)
@ByronDonalds (Uncle Tom personified)
@ScottJenningsKY
@SecRubio (LIddle Marco)
@eric_schmitt (Dirtbag Extraordinaire)
@duhon_tracy
@FlavioBolsonaro
@BolsonaroSP
"Brazilian election fact-checkers and mathematical experts point out that highly skewed or zero-vote precincts (known locally as urnas zeradas) are regular occurrences in Brazilian elections rather than evidence of systemic fraud or statistical anomalies:
Indigenous Territories and Isolated Communities: A significant number of the precincts showing absolute or near-absolute majorities for Lula are located in deep rural areas, specifically within indigenous reservations in the Amazon basin and isolated communities in the Northeast.
Historically, these specific demographics vote almost unanimously for left-leaning candidates due to policy platforms regarding land rights and environmental protections.
Favelas Controlled by Specific Factions: Conversely, highly isolated precincts controlled by local militias or specific urban factions can show heavily skewed single-candidate outcomes due to local political dynamics and security conditions.
The Reverse Phenomenon Exists: Demographers point out that this mathematical phenomenon works both ways.
In wealthy enclaves of southern cities like Curitiba or specialized military precincts, Lula frequently received zero votes or single digits, while conservative candidates captured virtually 100% of the ballot."
Grand Jury Declines to Bring Charges Against Cassidy Hutchinson nytimes.com/2026/10/27/us/po…
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Hey bagging MAGAsses - how is that whole Cassidy prosecution working out for you???
The MAGAsshole clowns at the bagger DOJ apparently can't even indict a ham sandwich.
What a bunch of complete losers - am I right????
@RapidResponse47
@VP
@WhiteHouse
@realdonaldtrump
@SpeakerJohnson
@bennyjohnson
@SecScottBessent
@RudyGiuliani
@dbongino
@elonmusk
@TheFive
@DineshDSouza (immigrant par excellance)
@realBrandonGill (brown anchor baby wife)
@StephenM
@RealTomHoman (50K bribe taker)
@SecMullinDHS
@IlhanMN
@seanhannity (JACKAss extraordinaire)
@SenTedCruz (EduardOH! Rafael Cancun)
@AGToddBlanche (Toady)
@FBIDirectorKash (Beasty)
@NickAdamsinUSA (Japanese car owner)
@berniemoreno (@MaxMillerOH BFF)
@ByronDonalds (Uncle Tom personified)
@ScottJenningsKY
@SecRubio (LIddle Marco)
@eric_schmitt (Dirtbag Extraordinaire)
@duhon_tracy
GOD DAMN! Barack Hussein Obama and Jon Ossoff are on FIRE!!!!
LOCK HIM UP, LOCK HIM UP, LOCK HIM UP!!!!!!!
This will absolutely be talked about in the history books as the United States has a very long and very troubled past coddling notorious right-wing thugs in this hemisphere - here we go again.
Fab Flav was granted "asylum" specifically because he and his family mirror that of the convicted felon and adjudicated sexual assaulter and active traitor to the United States dummy donnie dumpo's klan.
Pretty boy Flavio is facing some very serious criminal charges for which he should face in Brazil.
@RapidResponse47
@VP
@WhiteHouse
@realdonaldtrump
@SpeakerJohnson
@bennyjohnson
@SecScottBessent
@RudyGiuliani
@dbongino
@elonmusk
@TheFive
@DineshDSouza (immigrant par excellance)
@realBrandonGill (brown anchor baby wife)
@StephenM
@RealTomHoman (50K bribe taker)
@SecMullinDHS
@IlhanMN
@seanhannity (JACKAss extraordinaire)
@SenTedCruz (EduardOH! Rafael Cancun)
@AGToddBlanche (Toady)
@FBIDirectorKash (Beasty)
@NickAdamsinUSA (Japanese car owner)
@berniemoreno (@MaxMillerOH BFF)
@ByronDonalds (Uncle Tom personified)
@ScottJenningsKY
@SecRubio (LIddle Marco)
@eric_schmitt (Dirtbag Extraordinaire)
@duhon_tracy
Come on you bagging MAGAsses - here is your chance to SHINE and PROVE that you are not in a cult!!!
Tell us how you would react if this were Vice-President Biden or his son Hunter!!!!!
Come on you "Back the Blue" types - you can do it!!!!!
"Brazilian authorities are investigating allegations of illegal foreign campaign financing, specifically looking into potential funding ties involving a group connected to U.S. Vice President JD Vance (of course.)"
@RapidResponse47
@VP
@WhiteHouse
@realdonaldtrump
@SpeakerJohnson
@bennyjohnson
@SecScottBessent
@RudyGiuliani
@dbongino
@elonmusk
@TheFive
@DineshDSouza (immigrant par excellance)
@realBrandonGill (brown anchor baby wife)
@StephenM
@RealTomHoman (50K bribe taker)
@SecMullinDHS
@IlhanMN
@seanhannity (JACKAss extraordinaire)
@SenTedCruz (EduardOH! Rafael Cancun)
@AGToddBlanche (Toady)
@FBIDirectorKash (Beasty)
@NickAdamsinUSA (Japanese car owner)
@berniemoreno (@MaxMillerOH BFF)
@ByronDonalds (Uncle Tom personified)
@ScottJenningsKY
@SecRubio (LIddle Marco)
@eric_schmitt (Dirtbag Extraordinaire)
@duhon_tracy
This will absolutely be talked about in the history books as the United States has a very long and very troubled past coddling notorious right-wing thugs in this hemisphere - here we go again.
Fab Flav was granted "asylum" specifically because he and his family mirror that of the convicted felon and adjudicated sexual assaulter and active traitor to the United States dummy donnie dumpo's klan.
Pretty boy Flavio is facing some very serious criminal charges for which he should face in Brazil.
Only the guilty flee justice.
1. The "Dark Horse" Biopic Scandal:
The most prominent case involves corruption, money laundering, and currency evasion regarding the financing of a biographical film about his father, titled Dark Horse.
The Allegation: Investigators allege that Flávio illegally routed roughly $12 million (61 million reais) from Daniel Vorcaro, the former owner of the collapsed Banco Master.
The Ponzi Link: The funds allegedly originated from a massive $7 billion fraud scheme that targeted private clients and state pension funds.
The money was reportedly wired to a U.S.-based fund linked to his brother, Eduardo Bolsonaro.
2. The Online Betting & Pension Fraud Scheme:
The specific case that triggered his recent passport confiscation order involves money laundering and currency evasion linked to the online sports betting industry and pension fraud.
The Allegation: Federal Police uncovered suspected financial ties between Flávio and an attorney, Willer Tomaz, who was targeted in a broader probe for making unauthorized deductions from Brazilian social security pensions.
The Evidence: Investigators reportedly found that Flávio held "master user" administrative access to bank accounts belonging to Tomaz’s holding company.
Investigators also suspect the network used online gambling platforms to wash the illicit funds.
3. Campaign Finance & Foreign Funding Investigation:
On October 27, 2026, Supreme Court Justice Flávio Dino officially ordered a new probe into Flávio's presidential campaign.
Authorities are investigating allegations of illegal foreign campaign financing, specifically looking into potential funding ties involving a group connected to U.S. Vice President JD Vance.
Why the Clock is Ticking:
Compounding his legal woes, Flávio is set to lose his parliamentary immunity on January 31, 2027, when his eight-year Senate term officially expires.
Without a legislative mandate, he will lose standard protections against arrest, which legal experts cite as the primary catalyst behind his suspected flight from Brazil.
@RapidResponse47
@VP
@WhiteHouse
@realdonaldtrump
@SpeakerJohnson
@bennyjohnson
@SecScottBessent
@RudyGiuliani
@dbongino
@elonmusk
@TheFive
@DineshDSouza (immigrant par excellance)
@realBrandonGill (brown anchor baby wife)
@StephenM
@RealTomHoman (50K bribe taker)
@SecMullinDHS
@IlhanMN
@seanhannity (JACKAss extraordinaire)
@SenTedCruz (EduardOH! Rafael Cancun)
@AGToddBlanche (Toady)
@FBIDirectorKash (Beasty)
@NickAdamsinUSA (Japanese car owner)
@berniemoreno (@MaxMillerOH BFF)
@ByronDonalds (Uncle Tom personified)
@ScottJenningsKY
@SecRubio (LIddle Marco)
@eric_schmitt (Dirtbag Extraordinaire)
@duhon_tracy
Pretty Boy Flavio is facing some very serious charges in Brazil for which he should answer.
1. The "Dark Horse" Biopic Scandal:
The most prominent case involves corruption, money laundering, and currency evasion regarding the financing of a biographical film about his father, titled Dark Horse.
The Allegation: Investigators allege that Flávio illegally routed roughly $12 million (61 million reais) from Daniel Vorcaro, the former owner of the collapsed Banco Master.
The Ponzi Link: The funds allegedly originated from a massive $7 billion fraud scheme that targeted private clients and state pension funds.
The money was reportedly wired to a U.S.-based fund linked to his brother, Eduardo Bolsonaro.
2. The Online Betting & Pension Fraud Scheme:
The specific case that triggered his recent passport confiscation order involves money laundering and currency evasion linked to the online sports betting industry and pension fraud.
The Allegation: Federal Police uncovered suspected financial ties between Flávio and an attorney, Willer Tomaz, who was targeted in a broader probe for making unauthorized deductions from Brazilian social security pensions.
The Evidence: Investigators reportedly found that Flávio held "master user" administrative access to bank accounts belonging to Tomaz’s holding company. Investigators also suspect the network used online gambling platforms to wash the illicit funds.
3. Campaign Finance & Foreign Funding Investigation:
On October 27, 2026, Supreme Court Justice Flávio Dino officially ordered a new probe into Flávio's presidential campaign.
Authorities are investigating allegations of illegal foreign campaign financing, specifically looking into potential funding ties involving a group connected to U.S. Vice President JD Vance.
Why the Clock is Ticking:
Compounding his legal woes, Flávio is set to lose his parliamentary immunity on January 31, 2027, when his eight-year Senate term officially expires.
Without a legislative mandate, he will lose standard protections against arrest, which legal experts cite as the primary catalyst behind his suspected flight from Brazil.
@RapidResponse47
@VP
@WhiteHouse
@realdonaldtrump
@SpeakerJohnson
@bennyjohnson
@SecScottBessent
@RudyGiuliani
@dbongino
@elonmusk
@TheFive
@DineshDSouza (immigrant par excellance)
@realBrandonGill (brown anchor baby wife)
@StephenM
@RealTomHoman (50K bribe taker)
@SecMullinDHS
@IlhanMN
@seanhannity (JACKAss extraordinaire)
@SenTedCruz (EduardOH! Rafael Cancun)
@AGToddBlanche (Toady)
@FBIDirectorKash (Beasty)
@NickAdamsinUSA (Japanese car owner)
@berniemoreno (@MaxMillerOH BFF)
@ByronDonalds (Uncle Tom personified)
@ScottJenningsKY
@SecRubio (LIddle Marco)
@eric_schmitt (Dirtbag Extraordinaire)
@duhon_tracy













