The Little Boy is here. El Nino has set in, officially. 63% chance of a very-strong El Nino, as per the latest forecast from NOAA (noaa.gov/news-release/el-nin…) So, what does a 'super' El Nino mean for India? Laying out the risks in this @livemint Long Story Key takeaways: 1. A strong El Nino persisting through March next year means the summer of 2027 could get very very hot and dry (see latest NOAA chart). Drinking water shortages in pockets is a strong possibility. 2. There is no perfect correlation between the strength of El Nino and the quantum of monsoon rainfall deficit- only in 3 out of 6 strong El Nino years since 1951, did the Indian monsoon record a deficit of 10% or more (see chart1)- so all is not bleak yet 4. Distribution of monsoon rainfall will be critical for Kharif crops- but resilience of Indian agriculture to deficit rains has improved greatly over the past few decades (see chart2)- but be ready to pay more for vegetables, cooking oils etc 5. Keep a close watch on Indian Ocean Dipole, currently in a neutral state, which can offset some of the negative impacts of a very strong El Nino 6. As a senior scientist said: El Nino is like a terrific fast bowler. But much will depend on the pitch it bowls on. So, fingers crossed! Read more: livemint.com/economy/el-nino…

The great Indian oil spill: a cold-pressed-to-refined thriller Indian consumers footed a staggering Rs 1.72 lakh crore bill in FY26 to import cooking oils. This year, the bill may surpass Rs 2 lakh cr. This is way more than the entire annual budget of the agriculture ministry. And unlike imported fertilizers and crude oil, no one shields consumers when global cooking oil prices spike. India imports 60% of its cooking oil needs now. But in the early 1990s, India had achieved a brief period of atmanirbharta. Then it lost the plot to cheap palm. Then to high-yielding GM or transgenic soy- that it imports in large quantities and consumes, but won't allow its farmers to plant. With its atmanirbharta, India is also losing a part of its culinary heritage. Kachhi-ghani desi oils making way for solvent extracted foreign oils. Misery for local mustard, groundnut, sesame, soy growers who switched to other profitable crops like rice, maize, horticulture etc. Yet, there's more to the story which involves the legendary Verghese Kurien of Amul fame. With some arson, deaths and conspiracy theories thrown in. Borrowing Kurien's words, a final question: Who are the "scoundrels" who got us here? @livemint Long Story. Read here: livemint.com/industry/manufa…

85% of India's children in the 6-23 month age group do not receive an 'adequate' diet 32% children under-5 yrs age underweight: NFHS-6 Whither Viksit Bharat? Pipe dream for a country which is unable to provide for its youngest? Photo: Barmer, Rajasthan, 2024.