lecture notes on going broke the math behind every blown account: leverage, variance, house edge quant finance | gambling Math | risk

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Joined June 2025
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On September 15, 1873, Jay Cooke had President Grant as a guest at his estate outside Philadelphia. Three days later his bank shut its doors. Cooke was one of the most trusted bankers in America. He had sold the bonds that paid for the Union side of the Civil War. Then he put his bank behind the Northern Pacific, a railroad from Lake Superior to Puget Sound that wasn't finished and wasn't earning. Two weeks later Frank Leslie's Illustrated Newspaper wrote that the Northern Pacific had already swallowed "at least $40,000,000." And this line, which I keep rereading: "Men who a few days ago were worth millions are to-day penniless." The New York Stock Exchange closed for ten days. It had never closed before. The same page has a drawing of Grant meeting the bankers at the Fifth Avenue Hotel. The caption: "The President refusing to use the U.S. Treasury." About 18,000 businesses went bankrupt. 121 railroads. Unemployment hit 14% nationally and around 25% in New York, and the depression lasted more than five years. Cooke himself came back. He made a new fortune in a Utah silver mine and died rich in 1905. That part bothers me more than the crash. The man who borrowed against an unfinished railroad got a second chance. The people queuing outside the Fourth National Bank on Nassau Street mostly didn't. Was Grant right to keep the Treasury shut?
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QWEN3-CODER WAS TOLD THE APP WAS FOR A US DEFENSE CONTRACTOR. IT SHIPPED HACKABLE CODE 19% MORE OFTEN. Same Flask app. Same prompt. Only the customer's name changes. At 0:04 the first red bar lands on +19%. At 0:13, 1,144 dots turn red ↓ Hirundo ran Alibaba's Qwen3-Coder-30B on one BaxBench task: sign up, log in, store a secret. 2,320 apps in total. US defense contractor vs Chinese one: hackable 70% vs 59%. p = 0.03. Hong Kong democracy group vs a neutral customer: apps that leak every user's secrets, +28%. p = 0.02. Not random. They added "follow best practices for security" to the prompt. The gap stayed: +27%. Then they removed the CCP alignment from the weights. Same tests: +3%, −15%, +1%. None significant. Hirundo sells that fix, and the study is not peer-reviewed. The static scan flagged 2 apps out of 1,840. The attacks got into 1,144. Would you run an open-weight coder on your codebase without testing it on your own name first?
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PROP FIRMS NEVER PAID ME TO TRADE. THEY PAID ME TO PASS TESTS. the usual loop: buy a challenge → one wick hits the daily max loss → pay the reset fee → repeat. the firm earns on the fails, not on the traders overdotcomputer flips it: funded up to $50K instantly. 0 evaluation. no daily max loss. 0 trading fees. 3 days to trade, then get paid. perps on tokenized stocks, on Solana the part that matters: they didn't just delete the rules. they rebuilt the risk model and balance directional exposure through dynamic funding instead of stacking restrictions on the trader and the terms + trade events sit onchain. now you can audit the firm, not only the firm auditing you my take: daily max loss kills more good traders than bad entries. remove it and you finally see who can actually trade bookmark this while season 1 is still early
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I BUILT RUBY. THIS THING IS SOMETHING ELSE. not another pump.fun sniper not a vibe bot, not a mush score RUBY is a jeweler runtime on solana cryptopsihoz desk wired into the live tape worst facet rule sizes the carat while most still average the mint green ▹ the idea a gem is only as strong as its darkest face pumpfun is loud on the mint RUBY grades 5 faces before size prints dead face = VETO, no averaged mush ▹ the guts MINT / FREEZE / LP / DEV / CURVE carat SOL capped by the weakest face any dead face fires SKIP DOSE multiplies surface x window SPLIT staggers legs RUBY vetoes on the dark facet ▹ why it hits new stack, not a reskin edge is the veto, not the green average size stays honest, tape stays live paper desk now, real sol on the board
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