@leoncfu

CTO @ https://xitter.cf/t.co/7yOEb25ZYM & Co-Creator of the TaiFu™ 30 Cryptocurrency Market Index at https://xitter.cf/t.co/RWP0pslLuV. Not financial advice.

 Hong Kong
cryptocurrency.market
Joined November 2010
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  • Followers23.7K
293Media
1/The question we keep getting asked is should we buy or sell X coin. What they’re really asking is if it will go up or down. We don’t know. Nobody knows. And we don’t need to know.
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Forget alt season. It’s Trump Season! 🤣🤣😂😂
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I bought yesterday’s crash. I had a some ammo left for the crash below $10K that never came, that I deployed now. Will continue to DCA if we drop further.
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Why? When has buying Bitcoin -20%+ been been wrong a couple years later? Never….
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I do not understand Schiff’s decade long jihad against Bitcoin since zero. Bitcoin started from nothing, a decade later is backed by the largest institutions, trading on global stock markets (not just US) and backed by the leading Presidential candidate is vindication we’re right
Peter Schiff
@PeterSchiff5 Aug 2024
Today's #crypto crash wasn't big enough to shake the confidence of ETF investors. However, their resolve will be tested soon. Capitulation is needed to from a short-term bottom. #Bitcoin breaking below $38K should do the trick. At that price all #BitcoinETFs will hit new lows.
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That it crashed 20% yesterday is irrelevant. Markets crash. That’s just what they do regardless of the asset.
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What am I doing in the crypto bull market? Mostly nothing. I invested nearly all my AMMO with just a little left in case we fell to $10K like so many believed. The bottom was in Dec ‘22 at $16K, but so many were bearish through most of ‘23. The bears have all been vanquished!
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Is it too late to buy? Yes and no. No, it’s not too late because it’s going higher. Yes it’s too late because we’re likely already higher than the bottom of the next bear market. Anything you buy now and don’t sell will likely be a loser in the next bear market.
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In the short run, the Bitcoin ETFs has been great! It's one of the reasons the new crypto bull market started. But I have mixed feelings about it, longer term.
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On one hand, it's a bridge to bring billions from the traditional markets into crypto. OTOH, every dollar that goes into Bitcoin ETFs is a dollar that didn't go into Bitcoin itself.
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If the majority of the capital ends up in Bitcoin ETFs rather than Bitcoin itself, it ultimately hurts adoption. The crypto industry still needs to work on adoption or it will end up just another asset in the traditional markets.
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As for the market, there's not much for us to do. We switched from bearish to neutral to bullish last year, after the regional bank failures in the US. I was pretty much fully invested by Q2 of last year. We are BULLISH now, which means we're looking for reasons to SELL.
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Contrast that with 2022 when we were BEARISH, but looking for reasons to BUY. We are looking for reasons to buy when the market is going down and reasons to sell when the market is bullish.
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The ETF approval yesterday is a milestone in Bitcoin and crypto. The saying "first they ignore you, then they fight you, then you win" is happening before our eyes.
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Wall Street is now onboard. Now it's up to the industry to create utility and make adoption happen, not just an asset that's traded and held the way gold is. 😂
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My view switched from neutral to bullish after the regional bank failures last March. The bear market ended last Nov and we’ve been trading sideways since. I believe the bull market has started. It means, I start looking for reasons to SELL coins I bought in the past year.
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I still have some AMMO, but most of it has been deployed. I will no longer be looking to buy, unless there is a specific reason. This is the opposite of many investors. They either stay out, look to sell, short, etc. Even as recently as Aug and Sept, many were still bearish when
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We pulled back to $26K even though the bear market ended last year in November. Yes, I was painfully early sometimes, like buying SOL at $100, but am looking to profit over the ~4 year cycle, not over a month or even a year.
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My best performing position so far from the bear market is Solana (SOL). But it was ugly. I started DCA’ing at $100, $90, and that really hurt as the bottom was still -90% down, at $10.
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But I continued to buy, adding more at $13 and in the $20’s. Despite some terrible buys, it’s still has become my best performing position on % basis.
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A year later, we can now say with some confidence, the bottom was a year ago, Nov 21st 2021, at $15,500. That was the end of the bear market. We were DCA’ing in small amounts before, then heavily at the beginning of the year.
Leon Fu@leoncfu11 Nov 2022
Since people like to call bottoms and tops (myself included), I will GUESS (purely speculative) it’s >$10K. But I doubt it stays there long enough to buy few, if any coins <$11K unless you have standing limit orders on exchanges. We learned from FTX how risky that is.
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Correction, Typo: Nov 2022….
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