Updates and analysis on the Levant and Geopolitics as a whole. All opinions are my own, RT and Quote Tweets do not mean endorsement
Bint Jbeil, Lebanon
Joined March 2024
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My geopolitical predictions and analysis for 2026:
1. 110 years after Sykes-Picot we are facing a new project called the United Abrahamic States with its goal of partitioning existing countries based on sectarian and ethnic lines. The project is based on Israeli hegemony through occupation of land and natural resources.
2. Uprisings in Syria that will do more then spark annexation talks, a alawite state on the coast a durzi state in the south and a Kurdish state in the north. The momentum of annexation will spread to other countries forcing unusual alliances to form.
3. A youth movement in the Middle East. Leadership changes in Bahrain and Jordan. Hussein ibn Abdullah will be crowned king. Turkey will have a new president.
4. The rivalry between the UAE and Saudi Arabia will reach Saudi Arabia, MBS will face his biggest challenges internally after the death of Salman, and we may see a Ritz Carlton 2.0
5. 3 governments in Yemen
6. Attempts at destabilizing the regime in Egypt with fingers pointed towards the Muslim brotherhood. Protests and chants form but in my opinion won’t succeed. The deployment of the Egyptian military and its navy across Africa.
7. Nuclear and Intercontinental Iran.
8. New governments in Lebanon and Palestine pave the way for reform.
9. Without stating the obvious there is no such thing as a ceasefire.
10. Geological and financial crisis worldwide.
Leaving this post here to revisit throughout the year. These are just predictions of the Middle East based on analysis.
1) We will use the word “replaced” more than word “elected” when it comes to leadership across the middle east. We will find it hard to distinguish between revolutions and coups. Families that were in power before will resurface in the news in countries such as Iraq, Egypt, Libya, Palestine and yes even Syria.
2) The hysteria that the Muslim world used in regard to Wilayat Al Fakih will now shift to the ideology of the Muslim Brotherhood especially in Egypt and Jordan.
3) Unfortunately the same images that we saw in Beirut and the Dahya we could see in Sanaa Yemen.
4) The existential threat that the factions in Gaza used to launch October 7th will be used to launch a similar operation in the West Bank.
5) Iran will face its biggest test internally and will lead to it exerting its force externally.
6) Repeat of True Promise but this time in Lebanon.
7) After a brief scare of civil war adversaries in Lebanon and Palestine will put differences aside and rule together.
8) The prisoners that were promised to be released from Palestine will be released including Al Bargouthi.
9) Fist fights turn into hand shakes between Iran and the gulf countries.
10) The war in Lebanon in certain areas isn’t over.
“Everything is so trivial compared to the existential threat of Iran and the Shiite axis.”
תקראו את הדברים החשובים של יובל בלומברג:
מדינת ישראל נמצאת בסכנה קיומית אמיתית ומוחשית. אם האיראנים ישיגו גרעין, שום דבר כבר לא ישנה יותר. הכל כל כך טפל אל מול הסכנה הקיומית של איראן והציר השיעי.
הסערות המבוימות והמומצאות חדשות לבקרים נועדו להסיט את תשומת הלב מהדבר האחד שהוא החשוב ביותר: סיום העבודה באיראן.
זה נוגע בקיום הפיזי של כל אדם ואדם כאן.
יש לנו עוד שנתיים של טראמפ לסיים את העבודה באיראן, ואין לדעת מה יהיה לאחר מכן, אם זו תהיה קמאלה האריס, או תואם מאמדני כלשהו.
זה חלון הזמן שנותר לנו כדי להשלים את העבודה הנדרשת כדי להבטיח את הקיום הפיזי שלנו לשנים הבאות. כל משאבי המדינה הנדרשים, צריכים להיות מושקעים במשימה הזו.
קטאר, חרדים, אוריך, גיוס, התראות.
הכל מסך עשן ענקי כדי להסתיר את הנושא היחיד שניצב מעל כולם בפער.
אם יפלו במרכז הארץ שתי פצצות אטום, את מי יעניינו כל סערות הסרק האלה?
הדורות הבאים לא יסלחו לנו אם נפספס את חלון ההזדמנויות ההיסטורי שמאפשר לנו לנסות ולהשלים את המשימה הקריטית ביותר שעומדת בפני הדור שלנו.
זה לא יקרה עם ראש ממשלה שמוחזק בצווארו על ידי האחים המוסלמים וסייעני הטרור.
זה לא יקרה עם ראש ממשלה שלא מסוגל להרים את הטלפון ולנהל שיחה אינטימית רציפה עם טראמפ.
זה לא יקרה עם ראש ממשלה שלא מסוגל לעמוד בלחץ של ראיון טלויזיה.
השינאה לנתניהו, ככל שהיא עולם ומלואו עבור מחנה שלם, לא תעזור מול הגרעין האיראני.
כל אחד שדואג לקיום הפיזי שלו, של משפחתו, ושל אהוביו, ידו צריכה לרעוד לפני שהוא בוחר במישהו שלא יהיה מסוגל להשלים את המשימה, ובכך לדון את עצמו ואת משפחתו לסכנה של שואה שניה, בגלל השינאה הפוליטית שלו או בגלל סערת דמה מטופשת וחסרת חשיבות.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
נתניהו אמר בקולו שאיראן כבר לא איום קיומי ושהנצחון עליה יעמוד לדורות
x.com/IsraeliPM/stat…
x.com/IsraeliPM_heb/…
Iraqi PM Ali Al-Zaidi “If we close the borders with Iran-we’ll be besieging ourselves (Iraq) not Iran”
Say Wallah 😂
مصادر العربية: إيران تعرض على أميركا فتح مضيق هرمز مقابل رفع الحصار البحري وتبلغ باكستان أنها منفتحة على استئناف المفاوضات
==========
مصادر العربية:
🔴 إيران تقدم عرضا للإدارة الأميركية عبر باكستان
🔴 عرض إيران يتضمن فتح مضيق هرمز مقابل رفع الحصار الأميركي عن موانئها
🔴 إيران أبلغت باكستان أنها منفتحة على استئناف المفاوضات مع أميركا
Oil exports that have been able to bypass the strait of Hormuz through shadow tankers have primarily relied on the UAE and in particular the port of Fujairah.
For Oil to bypass the 125 dollars a barrel mark, the operations at this port have to be disrupted and I don’t believe we’re that far away from this happening.
The 4 factions of the Islamic resistance of Iraq announces it will join the upcoming war
In light of the complex circumstances facing the country and the region, and the continued crimes committed by the Zionist-American enemy against the people of our nation, we emphasize the importance of the following:
First: The American enemy continues to violate Iraqi sovereignty and renege on its declared commitments to the government. A documented (171) airspace violations were recorded, carried out by fighter and reconnaissance aircraft, during the period from September 30th to October 23rd of this year. This constitutes a blatant violation of existing agreements and the obligations they entail, and a clear contradiction of the duties imposed on all parties. This places the government in a moral obligation to be transparent with the Iraqi people about what is happening.
Second: The decisions to close airports and border crossings with the Islamic Republic of Iran are decisions dictated by American will and directives. Talk about achieving (national sovereignty) while these violations and the disregard for national decisions continue, is an affront to the dignity and free will of our people. How can we speak of the sovereignty of a state whose decisions are restricted from the outside, thereby reinforcing American hegemony and strengthening its influence at the expense of national decision-making independence?
Third: Standing with the front of righteousness against the forces of evil is a duty imposed by sound human nature. The aggression against the Islamic Republic by the Zionist-American enemy represents the reality of the war between the camps of right and wrong.
The Islamic Resistance in Iraq
October 24, 2026
The Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth: In three days, approximately 7.3 million eligible Israeli voters will head to the polls. Polls suggest that neither party has the ability to form a government, which could make a re-election necessary.
Most polls, whether published by major television channels or conducted by the parties themselves, indicate this possibility. They also point out that significant changes could occur in the results depending on the voter turnout and the number of votes that parties failing to meet the electoral threshold might lose. Furthermore, any last-minute developments or backtracking by party leaders on their statements and commitments, as has happened in the past, could also influence the outcome.
The Israeli newspaper Maariv: If Netanyahu wins the elections, he will not have a political need to attack Iran. And if the leader of the "Yesh Atid" party, Gadi Eisenkot, emerges victorious, Netanyahu will not be able to order an attack during the transitional period that precedes the formation of a new right-wing government, according to political sources.
These sources stated that the military leadership is expected to explain to him that he lacks the necessary legal and political support.
The Israeli newspaper Maariv: If Netanyahu wins the elections, he will not have a political need to attack Iran. And if the leader of the "Yesh Atid" party, Gadi Eisenkot, emerges victorious, Netanyahu will not be able to order an attack during the transitional period that precedes the formation of a new right-wing government, according to political sources.
These sources stated that the military leadership is expected to explain to him that he lacks the necessary legal and political support.
While we’re on the topic, what’s Mohammad Bin Nayaf been up to? How about the other royals that were held up in the Ritz Carlton from 2017-2019 and were extorted for 106 billion dollars. There’s no way that they could have passed sensitive intel and data about the Saudi ruling family out of spite and had it reach those in Yemen right?
Right?
Hezbollah MP Ali Al Ammar
I say to the Lebanese: We have 10 tough days ahead of us..
Between the elections in the states and the occupied entity, they could seize the moment to attack at anytime. I hope the support base of the resistance will be characterized by patience. There is no fear for the resistance.. The resistance is at the highest levels of readiness in capabilities and preparations.
Does he think we can’t read?
The comments 😂 are a good indicator of what’s going to happen in November’s elections. The people are fed up with the lies .
Hezbollah Political Bloc: Indicators warn of placing the region on a hot plate, and Lebanon is not immune to fragmentation due to the direction events are heading in its surroundings.
In my assessment:
If the war resumes at full force (which seems likely at this point) Lebanons and particularly Hezbollahs options are 3.
1. Maintain the status quo in hopes for a regional development revolving around the elections or political breakthrough to force an Israeli withdrawal.
2. Reenter the war-and some will say as a support front to Iran which is not the case. Iran does not require a support front, although the concept of the unity of the fronts will be present. The front in Lebanon would be reopened under the premise to liberate the occupied territories in accordance to international law for those who are hung up on it.
3-await an Israeli expansion of strikes under the premise that it wants to expand the buffer zone to improve its negotiation leverage at which Hezbollahs reentry would be forced to defend.
In my estimation option 2 and 3 are the most likely, however their entry may not begin right away they could wait a few days or weeks depending on the circumstances of the war to assess their involvement as they did during the 40 day war or 12 day war and assess the developments.
Either way the region is holding its collective breath, with all hands on the trigger.
