Former $GOOGL employee on why data center capacity and electricity are the real bottlenecks, not GPU production itself, and how unreliable some of the neoclouds are ($AMZN, $GOOGL, $MSFT, $NVDA): 1. According to the expert, open-source models are closing the gap with frontier models faster than expected, with customers increasingly replacing Anthropic and OpenAI models in multi-agent architectures with open-source alternatives starting from Q2 of this year. The shift started with simple tasks like tool calling and MCP, but has moved up the stack to low-level orchestration. 2. The expert identifies capacity as the biggest constraint at the moment, with certain companies' traffic growing 5x while GPU availability, particularly in the U.S. where latency requirements are tightest, simply cannot keep up. Sourcing capacity overseas in Asia or Australia is technically possible but adds latency that most customers will not accept. 3. Hyperscalers offer reliability but are expensive, require multi-year commitments of three or more years, and have limited availability of the latest hardware, with customers already chasing B300s. AI-native companies tend to gravitate toward neoclouds due to hyperscaler pricing and contract rigidity, but neoclouds come with their own reliability issues, with GPUs dropping off unexpectedly and requiring engineering resources to manage fleet stability around the clock. 4. The third tier consists of smaller independent operators who have invested in GPU racks, seeing the opportunity to lease out capacity and recoup costs within a year or two, with the remainder being pure profit. The expert describes these as essentially unusable in practice, with operators who do nothing more than find land, install racks, connect electricity, and set up cooling, with no real cloud management, maintenance, or operational expertise behind them. 5. The expert expects overall GPU availability to increase meaningfully over the next year or two, with $NVDA continuing to ramp production. The real bottleneck is not GPUs themselves but data center capacity and electricity in the U.S. On the supply side, the expert also sees players $SPCX beginning to lease out spare capacity to the market, with more likely to follow. 6. The expert notes that U.S.-based neoclouds typically require 20-30% prepayment upfront, with the remainder paid monthly or quarterly over the contract term, and rebates negotiated at the end for any reliability incidents like traffic loss. APAC-based providers operate differently, with no prepayment required at all. found on @AlphaSenseInc

Ambrosia’s Austin factory is open. We plan to make 10 GWh per year of our battery packs. This will enable us to build at least 300 MW of firm solar + battery power plants per year starting in 2028.

@ambrosiaenergy just hit 2 MW of solar at our pilot plant. We broke ground Jan 4, completed the first 1 MW on Aug 17, and 2 MW on Sept 24. Each solar panel we install with our ground mechanism now takes under 10 person-minutes to install, compared to the industry standard of ~120 person-minutes.[1] Our install time includes all amortized land clearing, road install, wiring, racking, and anchoring. Everything we do is built in a factory, rolled out to the field, and snapped together. Our innovative battery storage design also enables 24+ hour storage. That means we can deliver power to customers at 99% to 99.9% reliability, at competitive prices, built in 9-12 mo.  Next up: 30 MW of continuous power in 2027, then hundreds of MW after that. We're a team of under 20 and hiring in Austin, El Paso, and Redwood City. Come build the fastest power plants in the US with us. [1] docs.nlr.gov/docs/fy23osti/8…

I am a delusional optimist and i will win

🛰 The beautiful blue plasma, and beautiful engineering of SpaceX's argon thrusters, visible in space for the first time on the giant Starlink V3 satellites (200 ft. wingspan). The backstory on the incredible advance of these thrusters (below) is my most viewed post ever.

SpaceX doubled its revenue compared to last year, according to its first quarterly earnings since going public in June. spr.ly/6014BEhpD2

SpaceX is partnering with @Nvidia to design the Starmind AI1 satellite compute payload. Each of the Starmind satellites will include NVIDIA Rubin GPUs and Vera CPUs for datacenter class space compute → spacex.com/spacexai/starmind

The first Starlink V3 satellites in space successfully deployed their solar arrays, fired their thrusters, established connections with the Starlink constellation using radio frequencies and laser links, and captured imagery of Starship