Macro-Advisory Ltd

The Kyrgyz Republic is one of the fastest changing, and improving, investment stories in Central Asia. It has shed its reputation as a difficult, if not dangerous place to do business and is now attracting a greater range of businesses and investors, especially with the innovative @TamchySFIT on the shores of Lake Issyk -Kul. The country is described, scenically, as the Switzerland of Central Asia. Now it is replicating the Swiss investment model. I contributed an Op-Ed about this to intellinews.com and it can be accessed vis this link  intellinews.com/macro-adviso… #Kyrgyz   #Kyrgyzstan    #CentralAsia

Several shipping companies have suspended their operations in the Black Sea amid disruptions caused by drone attacks. MSC, world’s largest container operator, stopped accepting new orders to the Russian port of Novorossiysk following the drone attack on the MSC ULSAN III vessel. Companies have begun to divert some of their ships to St. Petersburg, which, on average, costs US$850/TEU more and takes 15-20 days compared to 3-4 days to Novorossiysk (from a Turkish port). #OOTT    #Sanctions    #Russia   #Turkey     #Ukraine    #Shipping    #Cargo

The two-day 47th Eurasian Intergovernmental Council (EaEU) started in Bishkek today. The five permanent members are Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan. Also attending are the four states with observer status: Cuba, Iran, Moldova, and Uzbekistan. The EaEU’s purpose is to promote economic and trade integration and to expand bi-lateral and group investment. The organisation is relatively substantial with a combined GDP (nominal) of $3.7 trillion and population of 430 million people. Moscow is keen to develop the group and not have it absorbed or marginalized with the expansion of BRICS. Moldova is not expected to remain part of the observer group and Cuba is very remote. #Armenia   #Belarus    #Kazakhstan   #Kyrgyzstan   #Russia   #Iran   #Cuba   #Moldova   #Uzbekistan   #EurasianUnion    #BRICS

Macro-Advisory Limited has issued its annual mid-year compilation of the best business, political and general interest books published in 1H26, covering the Eurasia region plus all twelve Eurasian states plus Iran and Afghanistan. The document also includes the updates Recommended Reading list for the region (Ukraine-Russia conflict, Caucasus, Central Asia, Energy, etc) and, individually, for all fourteen countries in the region. The books are those that Macro-Advisory considers to be the most useful for investors and multi-national companies. The full report can be accessed as a free download from the Home Page on the macro-advisory.com website #Eurasia #Iran #Afghanistan #Ukraine #Russia #Caucasus #CentralAsia #BookRecommendation #OOTT  #Armenia   #Azerbaijan   #Georgia   #Iran   #Kazakhstan   #KyrgyzRepublic   #Mongolia    #Tajikistan   #Turkmenistan    #Uzbekistan

Russia has extended the export ban for gasoline until the end of this year. The ban had been due to be lifted on August 1st but because of the drone damage to some large refineries (taking 30-35% of total capacity offline) the government said its priority is to ensure the domestic market is fully supplied and prices do not rise. The budget will not lose too much from the loss of export receipts as the crude, previously destined for refining, is adding to oil exports and, currently, with a shrinking discount to the $96 per barrel Brent price. The move adds to the global gasoline supply pressure (as Gulf exports remain very restricted) and is likely to put further upward pressure on gasoline prices, which are already up 100% since the start of 2026. #Russia #OOTT #Gas #Gasoline #Brent #export

Azerbaijan President Aliyev said that relations with Russia are now “fully normalized”. Relations had deteriorated badly since the downing of the Azeri civilian over Russia in December 2024. Before that, Moscow and Baku had been talking about greater cooperation in the energy sector and that may now again be on the agenda. Azerbaijan wants to export as much gas as it can to the EU and would like to import Russian gas to supply its domestic market. Currently, Azerbaijan’s main problem is the export pipeline capacity (TANAP and TAP) but is looking for investment to expand that route to the EU. When that happens, it will want to export all its own gas and use Russian gas at home. #Azerbaijan #Russia #Caspian #Caucasus #OOTT #EU #gas #oilandgas #TANAP #TAP #energy

Macro-Advisory is honoured to be participating in the Tashkent International Investment Forum this week. #TIIF #Tashkent #Uzbekistan

#Turkmenistan appears to be finally in the right place at the right time. It has the world's largest undeveloped gas reserves, which is now of greater interest to #China and to the EU as a result of the disruptive wars in the region. It is also an increasingly important transit route from Europe to China and it can be a big provider of green energy to the so-called Green Energy Corridor. The Gulf War is propelling Turkmenistan from Hermit State to an important energy and transit country between Europe and China. See my article published in Neglobal using this link neglobal.eu/turkmenistan-is-… #CentralAsia #GulfWar #Caspian #NaturalGas #MiddleCorridor #OOTT

My comments and observations about the oil price trend expected after the fighting ends. Because of the damage already sustained, it will be 12 months, at least, before previous production of oil and (especially) gas can be restored. Also, the legacy of fear of a repeat will mean that insurance cover will be tight for a long time. neglobal.eu/iea-issues-globa… #OOTT #LNG #IranWar‌ #Gulfwar

In the Kyrgyz Republic, President Japarov continues to consolidate his power with the further clear out of people close to the former Head of State Committee for National Security, Kamchybek Tashiev. Tashiev used be part of a power-tandem in Bishkek until Japarov fired him in February in what was seen as a high-risk gambit for sole power. Most recently Tashiev’s brother was forced to resign from parliament on the back of a social media campaign discrediting him. Also gone are other Tashiev loyalists, including the mayor of Osh, the country’s southern capital and the location of many political protests in the past. Japarov’s actions remain in the high-risk category. #KyrgyzRepublic #CentralAsia

India and Russia have agreed to prepare for the resumption of direct supplies of LNG (Reuters, citing sources). This is because of the suspension of LNG exports from the Gulf which, according to industry sources, will take at least one year to fully repair even if the war stops tomorrow. If India decides to proceed with the deal, negotiations could be completed within a few weeks. This will coincide with the start of the EU’s program to finally end the import of Russian LNG and piped gas this year. Moscow has stated that once it diverts LNG from the EU market (circa 15 mln tons which is equal to 14% of total imports) it will not be quick to return to the market even if the EU changes its plan. #OOTT #India #Russia #LNG #GulfWar

Kazakhstan lays claim to having the world’s “most beautiful” flag. It achieved the accolade in an online tournament organized by the Reddit platform. The competition was held in a playoff/knockout format, where participants voted round by round for the best national flag design. In the final round, the Kazakh flag defeated the flag of Kiribati, which depicts a rising sun and a bird above ocean waves. Bhutan, known for its traditional dragon emblem, finished in third place. Borat would be proud. #Kazakhstan #CentralAsia

Eid Mubarak to all our friends and clients celebrating the end of the Holy Month of Ramadan.

Macro-Advisory Ltd. and ISTAR Capital launch a strategic partnership delivering Eurasia intelligence to global investors—bringing together two independent firms committed to rigorous, high-impact research and actionable market insight across some of the world’s most complex and fast-evolving markets.

The war in the Gulf positions Russia in a relatively good position: China will buy all available Russian LNG and at market price and with summer approaching, the Northern Passage will be available to switch LNG from the EU; India is already reported to be buying Russian oil, which was stranded on tankers and, also reportedly, at greatly reduced discounts; Russia’s negotiating position with China regarding Pos2 is improved; The Russian federal budget will have a much better result in March as discounting eases/ends and because there are eager buyers of Russian oil and oil products. #OOTT #LNG #Russia #China #India #PowerofSiberia2

The EU has adopted a plan to completely phase out Russian LNG and piped gas by the end of this year. The plan calls for a ban on any new LNG contracts from April 25th. But, if Gulf LNG production is reduced for even several weeks and exports blocked, there will be calls for Brussels to suspend that action to protect supply. Hungary is already challenging the ban in the courts. #OOTT #LNG #Hungary #Gulf #oilandgas #EUEnergy #Russia

China is expected to become more serious about building the long-talked about, but still delayed, 50 bcm capacity Power of Siberia 2 pipeline from Russia (via Mongolia). The effort to fund and build the equally long-delayed Trans-Caspian pipeline to take Turkmenistan gas to Türkiye and then onto the EU should become more serious. Several U.S. investors have been pushing to acquire ownership of the undamaged Nord Stream pipeline (circa 15 Bcm annual capacity) and to then persuade Germany to buy gas from them as intermediaries. Azerbaijan should be well placed also but has very limited additional export capacity because of slow production growth and limited pipeline capacity via TAP and TANAP. #OOTT #LNG #China #Gulf #Azerbaijan #Turkmenistan #Mongolia #Russia #NordStream2 #PowerofSiberia2