AI predictions for next 6-9 months -> Anthropic/ OAI fail to ban OSS in the US -> Anthropic/ OAI continue to innovate product but stall on fundamental tech breakthroughs -> SOTA Gemini 4 launches at 10x lower cost -> Elon open sources Grok -> Anthropic/ OAI ARR growth stalls as enterprises move from tokenmaxxing to rational token consumption/ OSS -> slow realization in public markets that AI may not replace human labor in next 1-3 years/ has not had a fundamental tech breakthrough in over a year/ lacks ROI/ AI hyper and lab spend not durable -> moonboy VCs/ hedge funds/ softbank continue to fund Anthropic/ OAI equity raises in private markets as public markets for them are now fully closed -> CXMT, YMTC announce capacity expansions significantly above market expectations -> hypers deliver good q326 results on first look but fail to show meaningful AI ROI, guide to "significant capex expansion in fy27" -> broad realization in public markets the AI dream we got sold on is not anywhere close to realization -> 10yr hits >5% -> hyper bonds reprice >10%, CDS hit 3x current levels, and AI credit market dries up as market realizes GPU ABF was not a good idea -> hyper equities reprice 30-50% lower -> ORCL falls below $30 as rumors of bailout make the round -> market realizes memory is cyclical and LTAs won't hold -> 50% of korean traders get wiped within a week -> hypers cut fy27 capex -> semis reprice >80% lower -> fed cuts >150bps to avoid recession

i'm not sure what the long term goal for openai is, how much of their compute is going into people just burning through tokens on random shit because they reset the limits every three hours it's interesting to me that anthropic have not been drawn into the reset wars at all and yet they have the best model, they pull in more revenue, they attract the best staff, they're crushing enterprise. all of the real value is going to anthropic, this can not be sustainable for openai long term. maybe everone is simply building compute that anthropic will end up using.

Pretty much. As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers. SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue. That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.

SITUATION DETECTED: Warhound launched from stealth today with a $200M seed at a $1.2B valuation. Ben Lamm and Palmer Luckey are cloning gene-edited bio-enhanced dogs and equipping them with custom Anduril vests, goggles, and sensors for the military and law enforcement.

ok listen to me carefully delete all of your ai subscriptions. buy a claude max 20x plan use fable to plan, brainstorm and deliberate on your plans and use opus max to do the work everything else is a distraction and anthropic have won the race, it's over. take advantage of it.

SpaceX debt deal being led by Apollo and Goldman Sachs - Semafor $SPCX $GS