Michael H. Bachmann, MD, ScD

In my new book, I look at nine of the biggest risks to dying too soon across the world. Despite growing knowledge about how to live longer, healthier lives, life expectancy is going down in several high-income countries, while low and middle-income countries are facing a new chronic disease burden of cancer, type 2 diabetes, hypertension and heart disease. This isn’t all tied to ageing populations: in fact, cancer incidence is going up in each younger generation in G7 countries called the ‘birth cohort effect’. Coincidentally and entirely independent of my analysis, @SwissRe has just released its annual SONAR report, which identifies eight emerging risks that could impact the insurance industry. These insights help businesses and insurers anticipate future shifts and incorporate them into forecasts and long-term planning. The COVID-19 pandemic, for example, was an unforeseen event that significantly shortened millions of lives and disrupted actuarial models for life and health insurance. The excess mortality seen across Europe from 2020 to 2022 illustrates just how devastating those years were. While not all the emerging risks highlighted in the SONAR report relate directly to longevity, several overlap with the risk factors I discuss. These include the health consequences of ultra-processed foods, plastic and microplastic exposure, extreme heat, and widespread shortages and burnout within the healthcare workforce. Bottom line: the risks to our health are shifting fast—and it’s good to be anticipating and developing policies to manage them. swissre.com/institute/resear…