
capital allocator | @humphilomath fan | @cornell a while ago
Joined August 2022
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1) if you had size on eth to sell on-chain, I question your sanity
2) transactions with fifty dollars worth of gwei were not going through so you had to gamble on extremely high gas to try and get through to arb the eth price dislocation before Circle moved to freeze funds in like 37 minutes, despite accounts telling you that you had an hour to profit off the arb
You don't know the true probability and neither do I. There is no correct probability, just a market implied one. You aren't running a repeated experiment whose outcome can be observed to count the number of successful trials. The reality is Polymarket forecasts closely align with actual outcomes across all probability buckets both 12 hours out and 4 hours out. This argument makes no sense and I can't believe I have seen multiple accounts parrot it. By this same logic, election models are similarly guess work because remember this? Note it was last updated the literal day of the 2016 presidential election.
midpricedog retweeted
An internal model at OpenAI has produced a claimed refutation of ETH! Russell Impagliazzo, Mohan Paturi, and I have been asked to help organize an open and independent examination of this claim. 1/4
midpricedog retweeted
Announcing three major scientific discoveries, one each in mathematics (harmonic analysis), computer science (complexity theory), and physics (quantum field theory).
AI starting to help us improve our understanding of the universe! openai.com/index/building-sc…
midpricedog retweeted
The fact is you have to be pure of heart and sound of mind to appreciate the fascist master-planned exit suburbia—Jung spoke of this. All the same teens who rightly flee to discover themselves always ultimately return in adulthood; the only ones who don’t, and continue to resent the “conformity” and “boredom” are the clear failsons, the perpetual manchild, left behind to continue the empty oversocialized consumerism of the downwardly mobile coastal transplant citycel wasteling, living for nothing and no one at all, and dying facing the same; you’re supposed to get it out of your system and grow up but Netflix never told them. The same things that repel the suburb for the adolescent are what draws them as adults, but only those who survived the night’s journey, resolved their painful insecurities and emerged fully mature and individuated, where suddenly order and responsibility is a calling and not a suffocating oppression—stability, structure and investment can now be understood as a foundation for achievement where as a teen it was correctly resented as preventing the novelty and possibility of exit needed to discover and re-invent yourself, and so he escapes to the city and does so. This is the natural way of things, but the failure is the urbanites trapped in perpetual adolescence. They tell themselves culture comes from the slums and the red light district and such, but it’s because their entire cultural consumption is social media signaling and content streaming—culture has always only comes from the gaze of the literate aristocracy, who only ever wrote about such things from their high towers gawking down and trawling through in their own journeys out, prince beyond his castle—skid row can swallow Los Angeles whole and the only thing that will ever grow in the “deep culture pressure cooker” of civil mismanagement is gonorrhea; no, the 21st century Rimbaud—the next Burroughs, the next Wyndham Lewis, the next Mishima—will be born to a tiger mom in too-perfect Irvine CA.
when people from other places complain about irvine being soulless or boring or whatever else, i thik it's sad but natural that those acclimated to a deprivation of beauty would underestimate the immeasurable value that beauty in one's surroundings adds to one's life. every single day i thank God for so many beautiful little scenes that many people might only get to enjoy on a brief, rare vacation.
here are some pictures from my irvine office park parking lot. every little corner is truly God's country 😌
midpricedog retweeted
Introducing Kimi K3.1 Pro: our most capable 3T-class open-weight model.
🔹 1M-token context, 2.8T total / 104B active params (MoE), Multimodal.
🔹 Full-project coding: games in Unreal, Unity & Godot.
🔹 Excels at parametric 3D modeling in Blender & CAD.
🔹 More reliable at finance work: Accurate modeling with hallucination down by 65%.
🔹 Matching the strongest proprietary models across coding, agentic and knowledge benchmarks.
Kimi K3.1 Pro and K3.1 Pro Highspeed (2–3× faster) are now live on Kimi.ai, Kimi Work, Kimi Code, and the Kimi API.
Open weights by Nov 4, 2026.
🔗 API: platform.kimi.ai
🔗 Tech blog: kimi.ai/blog/kimi-k3-1-pro
midpricedog retweeted
Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana all need to build new clients implemented in Lean, . Then plan to deprecate existing clients
Major blockchains are ripe targets with complex codebases that are easy to hide bugs. Given what we’re seeing, the only safe approach is end to end formal verification. Rust/C/Go simply will not cut it
Yes, it will be extremely laborious and expensive. No one has ever ported such massive pieces of systems software to Lean before. But practically it can be done, it’s just hard. And the sooner it gets started, the better.
midpricedog retweeted
It has been interesting to watch San Francisco as it has been stripped of nearly all of its original countercultural garments (distrust/apathy towards The Cathedral, high-openness, suspicion of credentialism, original thought, etc.) and has donned a new zeitgeist that is the absolute antithesis of its former ethos.
Everywhere you look resembles third-world, low-trust, social hierarchy jostling . "How much did you raise bro? Did you get the Sequoia check? You don't work at a Tier 1 lab? You didn't... didn't go to Stanford?".
The city that was once great because of its disgust with these sorts of people has now been corrupted by them as they have min-maxed Machiavellian social dynamics to accumulate power in the valley like XP points. Power which is now completely divorced from any genuine talent, skill, or benevolence. All that matters is that you are able to Scam a16z out of $15M (@cluely) because you are a poaster and you are anointed with SF Clout™
This infestation is so deep that even those who rightfully call it out are still willful participants in the exact culture they so detest (check her bio).
made me physically disgusted reading this
>literally the only reason why you care about a person you have not met is because they've done something publicly approved
not only is it not true, this kind of mindset is so inhumane. sad for him but also the fact that lots of tech bros think like this to some degree. reject treating people transactionally.
It took Jeff Yan and Don Wilson to get Joe Weisenthal to realize blockchain can be an interesting and useful technology for trading? Top tier kek
This got downgraded to mediocre farm given the lack of transferability. Staking yield paid for losses farmed over first week, but for sure not worth it anymore knowing there is 0 terminal value payout on the token itself.
midpricedog retweeted
This evening I sat across from the CEO of a so-called trading neo lab with over $1B val. He told me their models—built on best-in-class RL environments and online learning algorithms—have produced exceptional pnl and sharpe ratios.
I later learned that the company is, in fact, a data broker LARPing as a frontier lab. Its actual edge is trading stocks and options on insider information of model releases and synthetic-data acquisitions.
It appears I have once again materially underestimated the absurdity of this industry.
midpricedog retweeted
Ok can finally talk about what I’ve been working on at Reflection. Introducing Mirror, our own open source coding agent optimized for Beam.
I started the mirror project when I first joined Reflection, and it has gone through many iterations since then.
Install it today with: uv tool install reflection-mirror
github.com/reflection-oss/mi…
RT @Razultull: Built this dashboard as I wanted to understand the game theory behind @papertrade_xyz a bit more. Big fan of what @izebel_et…
I midcurved this on day two because of how staking rewards fell off a cliff but if you sit down with your LLM of choice and go over the docs and poke around the protocol API a bit you can see its still a very good farm.


























