minnesorta

Everyone's already got Quinn Hughes signing in New Jersey next summer. The brothers reunite, Jack and Luke and Quinn all on one blue line and one power play, and the Devils become a superteam overnight. I get it. It's the best storyline in hockey. But the more I look at it, the less I think it actually happens. I'll lay out why. Start with last year. The Canucks and Devils reportedly touched base on a Hughes trade, and New Jersey never pushed it across the finish line. Their cap and a couple of no-trade/no-move contracts made it messy, and they let it go. My personal read is that Quinn wanted Jersey. When the team with both his brothers on it had the chance and passed, I think that stuck with him. Players remember who came for them and who didn't. The bigger problem is money, and it's not close. The Devils are projected to have about $16.8M in cap space next season, and that's with only 16 roster spots filled. They still need to fill out the rest of the lineup with that same money. Quinn hits UFA as a Norris-caliber defenseman, and his max next summer is roughly $22.7M a year. Jersey can't even fit the max, let alone build a roster around it. So what would it actually take? Quinn would have to come in well under market just to fit, and even then there'd be almost nothing left for depth. That means a hometown discount on the biggest contract of his career, which also sets the market for every elite defenseman after him. Guys don't do that, and their agents definitely don't let them. A small discount is possible. The discount Jersey needs isn't happening. Meanwhile, look at what he already has in Minnesota. The Wild are first in the Central and #2 in the NHL's power rankings, and they're doing it while missing Faber, Gustavsson, both Folignos, and Spurgeon. That's a big chunk of their core on the shelf, and they're still near the top of the league. When those guys come back, this is a real Cup team. Why leave a contender to start over somewhere that can't afford you? Then there's Brock Faber, and this is the part people sleep on. When he's healthy, Quinn isn't finding a better partner anywhere in the league. Faber can jump into the play and drive offense right alongside him, but he's also a legit shutdown defender. That combination lets Quinn take every risk he wants, because he knows Faber has the back end covered. Players love that kind of pairing, and you don't find it twice. Put it all together. New Jersey passed on him once. They can't afford him without gutting the roster. And they can't offer him a better team or a better partner than what he has right now. The brothers thing is a great story, and I'd watch every second of it. But Quinn Hughes is staying in Minnesota. Tell me I'm wrong @minnesotawild