Consultant , special interest in terrorism&Levant https://teapaw.org/t.co/0e8dTX4WoK Geopolitics, interests non-state armed actors, economics, international trade, ressources
Lebanon/Syria/Jordan/Iraq/ GCC
Joined April 2009
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The return of #Shiite #Iran backed jihad ? Sources close to #Lebanon #Hezbollah say militia recruiting teenagers and calling for #Jihad. @AlArabiya reporting similar trend among #Yemen #Houthi.
Mona Alami retweeted
Take a look at the extra costs added by insurance and freight. So even if there is more oil flowing via Hormuz its at a higher cost #OOTT
Normally, the combined cost of freight and insurance represents around 3% of the total cost of crude or petroleum products.
By the end of January 2026, the total share of freight and insurance for very large crude carriers (VLCCs) from the Middle East to East Asia was around 5% of the total cost.
By the end of October 2026, however, this share averaged 30% of the total cost.
These exceptionally elevated costs are, in turn, transmitted across the entire value chain. They increase and prolong the cost burden on producing and consuming countries and place additional inflationary pressures on the global economy.
Read more in the new brochure ➡️ opec.org/assets/assetdb/who-…
Mona Alami retweeted
And electrical equipment, cooling, networking and batteries
Elon Musk says the AI boom will hit a WALL by the end of 2026.
He says the whole industry is about to learn a hard lesson in hardware.
Chip output is exploding, but electricity is nearly flat everywhere outside China.
So the two lines cross this year.
He says by the end of the year, we will be making more AI chips than we can actually turn on.
Millions of them pile up with nowhere to plug in.
In his words, the bottleneck for the next year is not chips, it is raw power.
Whoever can turn on the most chips fastest wins the race.
In the end, the AI race comes down to one thing:
Raw electricity.
— Elon Musk (.@elonmusk) on Dwarkesh Patel's (.@dwarkesh_sp) podcast
Mona Alami retweeted
Relatively small amounts of critical minerals underpin trillions of dollars in economic value globally
The rare earth export controls introduced in 2025 highlighted the vulnerabilities of concentrated supply chains – & the importance of diversification 👉 iea.li/4w9Bn5Z
Mona Alami retweeted
**No — lithium, nickel and cobalt are not rare earth minerals.**
Rare earth elements (REEs) are a specific group of 17 elements (the 15 lanthanides plus scandium and yttrium). Lithium is an alkali metal, while nickel and cobalt are transition metals. They are all classified as **critical minerals** (or battery metals) because of supply risks and their importance to modern technology, but they are chemically and geologically distinct from rare earths.
### Role in batteries
They are essential for lithium-ion batteries:
- **Lithium** is fundamental — lithium ions move between the anode and cathode to store and release energy.
- **Nickel** is used in high-energy-density cathodes (such as NMC and NCA chemistries) to boost capacity and range in EVs.
- **Cobalt** improves cathode stability, safety and cycle life in many chemistries (though its use is being reduced in some formulations, such as LFP, which relies more on iron and phosphate).
Demand is rising rapidly with EVs, energy storage systems, electronics and defence applications. Processing (refining ores into battery-grade materials) is highly concentrated, particularly in China.
### Largest reserves (approximate, based on recent USGS data)
- **Lithium**: Chile (~9.2 million tonnes contained Li), Australia (~8.4 Mt), China (~4.6 Mt), Argentina and the United States (~4.4 Mt each). World total ~37 Mt. (Resources are larger; Bolivia and Argentina hold substantial resources that are not all classified as reserves.)
- **Nickel**: Indonesia (around 55–62 Mt), Australia (~24–25 Mt), Brazil (~16 Mt). World total roughly 130+ Mt.
- **Cobalt**: Democratic Republic of the Congo (~6 Mt, roughly half of global reserves), Australia (~1.7 Mt), followed by Indonesia, Cuba and others. World total around 11–12 Mt. Production is even more concentrated, with the DRC supplying the large majority of mined cobalt.
### India’s position
India has very limited economically viable reserves and near-total import dependence for refined lithium, nickel and cobalt materials:
- **Lithium**: Exploration has identified resources (e.g., in Jammu & Kashmir, Rajasthan and elsewhere), with figures cited in the range of several million tonnes of ore in recent government data, but no commercial mining or significant domestic production yet.
- **Nickel**: Resources of nickel ore are reported at around 189 million tonnes (mostly low-grade), but economic reserves are effectively zero and there is no domestic production.
- **Cobalt**: Resources are small (tens of millions of tonnes of ore or very limited contained metal in some inventories); production is negligible.
Mona Alami retweeted
ماذا سيتغير في السياسة الأميركية بعد فوز الديمقراطيين بالكونغرس؟
نشرت مجلتا Foreign Policy ومعهد Brookings عدة تحليلات حول نتائج انتخابات التجديد النصفي لعام 2026، وتأثير سيطرة الديمقراطيين على مجلسَي النواب والشيوخ في سياسات الرئيس ترامب خلال العامين المقبلين.
أبرز النقاط والاستنتاجات:
1. أسباب خسارة الجمهوريين: تشير التحليلات إلى أن ارتفاع تكاليف المعيشة، والرسوم الجمركية، والحرب على إيران، والمخاوف من الفساد، ساهمت في تراجع التأييد لترامب والجمهوريين.
2. الحرب على إيران: ستكون من أبرز ملفات المواجهة.
يستطيع الديمقراطيون تقييد تمويل الحرب أو ربطه بشروط، لكنهم لا يستطيعون بالضرورة إجبار ترامب على إنهائها.
3. عزل ترامب: يبقى احتمال عزله فعلياً ضعيفاً، لأن إدانته تتطلب موافقة ثلثي مجلس الشيوخ. وقد يفضل الديمقراطيون إبقاءه في منصبه بدلاً من وصول نائبه جي دي فانس إلى الرئاسة قبل انتخابات 2028.
4. عزل الوزراء: قد يتجه الديمقراطيون إلى استهداف كبار المسؤولين، خصوصاً وزير الدفاع بيت هيغسيث، بسبب الحرب على إيران والعمليات العسكرية الأخرى. وقد تدفع إجراءات العزل بعض المسؤولين إلى الاستقالة حتى دون صدور إدانة.
5. مستقبل القوات الأميركية في الخليج: الأضرار التي لحقت بالقواعد الأميركية نتيجة الضربات الإيرانية ستفتح نقاشاً حول إعادة بنائها أو نقلها، وسيكون للكونغرس دور مؤثر من خلال الموافقة على التمويل.
6. الموازنة العسكرية: قد يعرقل الديمقراطيون طلب ترامب تخصيص 350 مليار دولار إضافية للإنفاق الدفاعي، ويفرضون رقابة أشد على مشروعات مثل القبة الذهبية والبارجة الذهبية.
7. أوكرانيا وروسيا: سيعمل الديمقراطيون على زيادة الدعم لأوكرانيا ومعارضة تخفيف العقوبات على موسكو، والحد من خطط تقليص الوجود العسكري الأميركي في أوروبا.
8. التحقيقات مع إدارة ترامب: من المتوقع فتح تحقيقات بشأن إدارة الحرب على إيران والتعاملات مع الحكومات الأجنبية والمصالح التجارية لعائلة ترامب، خصوصاً في فنزويلا وقطاع النفط.
9. التعيينات الحكومية: يستطيع الديمقراطيون في مجلس الشيوخ تعطيل أو تأخير تعيين مسؤولين في مناصب الأمن القومي واستخدام هذه الصلاحية للضغط على البيت الأبيض.
10. صلاحيات الحرب: قد يحاول الديمقراطيون تعديل قانون صلاحيات الحرب لعام 1973 لتقييد قدرة الرئيس على شن عمليات عسكرية دون موافقة الكونغرس، لكن الفيتو الرئاسي سيجعل إقرار إصلاحات كبيرة أمراً صعباً.
11. العقبات التشريعية: رغم الأغلبية الديمقراطية، يستطيع ترامب تعطيل كثير من القوانين باستخدام الفيتو.
كما أن بعض التشريعات تحتاج إلى 60 صوتاً في مجلس الشيوخ لتجاوز المماطلة البرلمانية.
12. الملفات الداخلية العالقة: سيواجه الكونغرس الجديد تحديات تتعلق بتمويل الحكومة، وسقف الدين العام، والتشريعات الزراعية، وإصلاح إجراءات التراخيص، والموازنة الدفاعية.
13. التعاون مع الجمهوريين: قد يتمكن الديمقراطيون من استقطاب بعض الجمهوريين، خصوصاً في ملف الحرب على إيران، لكن الاستقطاب الحزبي سيحد من فرص التعاون الواسع.
14. انتخابات 2028: ستؤثر الحسابات الانتخابية في قرارات الحزبين. فقد يفضل كل طرف تحميل الآخر مسؤولية الجمود السياسي بدلاً من تقديم تنازلات تشريعية.
15. مستقبل الترامبية: تطرح النتائج احتمال بداية موجة سياسية مضادة لترامب، لكن من المبكر اعتبارها نهاية للترامبية أو تحولاً دائماً في اتجاه الناخبين الأميركيين.
الخلاصة:
فوز الديمقراطيين لا يعني انتقال السلطة التنفيذية إليهم، ولا يعني أن ترامب سيفقد قدرته على اتخاذ القرارات، خصوصاً في السياسة الخارجية والأمن القومي.
لكنه يعني أن ترامب سيواجه خلال العامين المقبلين كونغرساً يمتلك أدوات قوية للضغط عليه: التمويل، والرقابة، والتحقيقات، والتعيينات، والتشريعات.
والاختبار الأهم سيكون الحرب على إيران، ومدى استعداد الديمقراطيين لاستخدام سلطاتهم المالية والسياسية لتغيير مسارها.
أما الإصلاحات الكبرى التي تعيد توزيع صلاحيات السياسة الخارجية بين الرئيس والكونغرس، فقد لا تصبح ممكنة قبل انتخابات الرئاسة لعام 2028 وتولي الإدارة الجديدة السلطة في 2029.
@BrookingsInst @ForeignPolicy
Mona Alami retweeted
One of my friend makes $1.2 million a year as an Anthropic engineer.
I asked him how he learned prompting so well. He sent me a video that was never supposed to get out. Their core team's prompting playbook.
You won’t find anything better about prompting than this 30 minutes video.
I watched it last night. Halfway through, I realized I've been using Claude completely wrong for two years.
Watch it, then read the article below.
Mona Alami retweeted
Holy shit!
Read Vance's entire tweet. Here's a teaser:
"The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night."
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.
So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us."
Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.
There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true.
But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.
Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:
1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to Israel
Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)
In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.
The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.
If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest.
But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.
I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
. @lorienttoday quotes #Yemen #Saudi government accusing 21 #Hezbollah foreign experts of supporting #Houthis. WRONG Hezbollah has more than 100 Military experts deployed in Yemen providing missile and tech support 2 Houthis.
If @POTUS believes he will make peace in the Arab region with his current strategy he will FAIL. Both #Iran & #Israel have similar expansionist views on the Arab region and Iran a cheap asymmetric warfare policy in #Hormuz #Lebanon #Iraq #Palestine . No peace possible for NOW.
#Beirut s attacks by #Israel in response 2 #Hezbollah R misguided . the #IRGC from #Iran R leading directly the party military since their leadership killing. Iran either wants 2put pressure before signing the deal or more plausible is not serious about it @AJEnglish @Harb3Imad
. @AJEnglish distorting facts: #Lebanon attacks today were initiated by #Hezbollah , an #Iran guards decision since the IRGC R PRESENT in LEBANON. This is a repetition of March s attacks on Israel, after the start of the Iran Israel war.
#Beirut s attacks by #Israel in response 2 #Hezbollah R misguided . the #IRGC from #Iran R leading directly the party military since their leadership killing. Iran either wants 2put pressure before signing the deal or more plausible is not serious about it @AJEnglish @Harb3Imad
#Beirut s attacks by #Israel in response 2 #Hezbollah R misguided . the #IRGC from #Iran R leading directly the party military since their leadership killing. Iran either wants 2put pressure before signing the deal or more plausible is not serious about it @AJEnglish @Harb3Imad
Mona Alami retweeted
Timely piece on @SyriaTransition that pushes back against recent vilification of Druze communities in Suwayda opposed to the gove't by pro-Damascus media, especially simplistic claims that the area is a haven for Assad loyalists and a hub for Captagon.
syriaintransition.com/en/hom…
Dunno #Itan like I know #Hezbollah but inside media sources rtelling me that regime is still up but has become decentralized and having difficulty to coordinate . Iran built Hezbollah like it did 4them astarfish model growing an arme when it’s cut vs spider theory #Lebanon
Mona Alami retweeted
إصابة مباشرة
عدّي معي :
-رفيق الحريري
- وسام عيد
-وليد عيدو
-وسام الحسن
-محمد شطح
-اشتباكات الجامعة العربية طريق الجديدة ٢٠٠٧
-٧ أيار ٢٠٠٨ (يوم مجيد)
-إسقاط حكومة سعد الحريري ٢٠١١
-تفجير مسجدي التقوى والسلام طرابلس ٢٠١٣
- حكومات نجيب ميقاتي، حسان دياب
-دواعش، دواعش،دواعش
-بني أميّة، بني أميّة، بني أميّة
-ساااااهيونيييي نواف سلام ساااااهيوني
ف من الآخر، السنة مع الدولة ويلي بتقرره الدولة، استعطاف السنّة ع آخر لحظة ما رح يجيب نتيجة حتى لو بتعملوا تمثال لرفيق وسعد بساحة النبطية...يلا رجعوا ركزوا عالميدان، ما زال الكلمة للميدان ما في داعي لمناشدة السنّة 😆
Mona Alami retweeted
Rafik Hariri Hospital in Beirut has begun DNA testing on human remains to identify dozens still missing after Wednesday’s massacre.Israeli strikes were so powerful they mangled bodies beyond recognition, with many victims arriving at hospitals in bags. Identification could take weeks.
Mona Alami retweeted
I went to school with this person. He lost his parents in the massive wave of Israeli strikes on #Lebanon yesterday.
They are not Hezbollah, nor are they fans. They are civilians.
A sample of many suffering the horror of a war they never wanted.
RIP ❤️🩹
