老赵

为什么仅凭两根斜线，就可以看多？因为斜率的变化。 想象你在一个长坡向下滑雪。起初，你越滑越快，逐渐不受地心引力束缚。中段，你匀速下滑，感受风掠过耳畔。末段，摩擦力起效，你的速度自然慢下来，偶遇几个小坡，开始起起伏伏。 最终，你来到平地，丝毫感受不到重力的作用，身边人嘻嘻闹闹，庆祝你完成了漂亮的滑行。你回望长坡厚雪，没错，那场刺激的、精彩的下行，已经结束了。

Expanding on why I believe "ETH as store of value (SoV)" makes much more sense to focus on than "ETH as fee-burning token". Three primary reasons: 1. ETH as fee-burning token never was as strong as it seemed 2. Optimizing for ETH as fee-burning token would demand Ethereum and ETH function in ways that are very hard to make compatible with decentralization and capture resistance. 3. Meanwhile, optimizing for ETH as SoV is aligned with Ethereum focusing on its unique strengths (decentralization and CROPS) EIP-1559 (including its burn) is fine and good, we should keep them. But we should not feel sad if fee burn is < 10% of breakeven indefinitely; the value of ETH comes from elsewhere. The core idea: the big thing that people appreciate about Ethereum is decentralization and CROPS. The main pragmatic benefit that these things translate into is stability. SoV is the category where that is not an unneeded extra we merely put effort into for ideological reasons, but rather a pragmatic strength from the perspective of people putting in their assets. And in the era of AI disruption, stability will be highly valued.

I was investing in 2000 (43 yo managing a $200m venture fund). I was investing in 2008 (51 yo managing a private hedge fund). I was investing in 2020 (63 yo managing a mining stock fund). Each represented the bursting of a bubble. Thursday, November 5, 2026 was deja vu for me. I have seen this movie three times. Party is over. Consequences of ZIRP, and free money driven "Everything Bubble" are coming home. Persistent inflation is the pin. Stock bulls better rethink their buy the dip strategy IMO. It's a long way down.

The floor is in... we could go down another 10% in tech valuations, which would be the ultimate buy time for me. Every spare dollar I can find in the couch goes into $tsla $SPCX $UBER $AMZN $SHOP $MSFT $GOOG and $AAPL Here's what will happen: 1. The Dems are going to force us to exit Iran... President Trump will claim a Bush "mission accomplished!" and take the win for his legacy. 2. Inflation drops 3. Dems will come out in support of Data Centers and AI, in exchange for repealing tax cuts on the wealthy and some regulation on frontier models. 4. President Trump takes credit for brokering this deal and takes a second win for this legacy. 5. Ballroom reaches completion... @realDonaldTrump throws a year of ragers. Third win for his legacy 6. Pardon paloooooooza... autopen on fire. 7. Markets top tick and set new records. Bookmark this... and @grok please remind me of this every 1st of the month @bot

Wall Street’te eski bir söz vardır: “Borsada en dipten sadece yalancılar alır.” Yıllar içinde yaşadıklarım bana bu sözün ne kadar doğru olduğunu gösterdi. Pandemi başladığında borsacı arkadaşlarla bir WhatsApp grubumuz vardı. Aramızda bir arkadaşımız, salgının nereye varabileceğini öngörerek bütün hisselerini satıp nakde geçmişti. Ben doktor olmama rağmen olayın bu boyutlara ulaşacağını öngörememiştim. Kendisini hepimiz tebrik ettik. Gerçekten müthiş bir öngörüydü. Biz bütün portföyümüzle düşüşe yakalanmış, arkadaşımız ise tamamen nakitteydi. Ama bir sorun vardı. Borsa dipten dönmeye başladığında arkadaşımız alım yapmadı. Belirsizliğin devam ettiğini, ekonominin ve şirketlerin toparlanmasının uzun süreceğini düşünüyordu. Borsa yükseldi, yine almadı. Biraz daha yükseldi, yine almadı. Sonunda kaçırdığı fırsatlar moralini o kadar bozdu ki bizden müsaade isteyerek WhatsApp grubundan ayrıldı. Yıllar önce başka birinden de benzer bir hikâye dinlemiştim. 2001 krizine erken girmiş ama sabrederek 2006’da cidd karla bütün hisselerini satıp kenara çekilmiş. 2008 krizi geldiğinde satmış olduğu hisselerin bazılarının onda bir fiyatına düştüğünü görmüş. Ama o fiyatlardan bir lot bile alamamış! Ancak 2009-2010 yıllarında, hisseler eski fiyatlarına yaklaşırken güç bela borsaya dönebilmiş. Bu iki hikâyeden benim çıkardığım çok önemli dersler var. Birincisi, borsadan tamamen çıkmak kolaydır ama geri dönmek sandığınızdan çok daha zordur. En iyi fırsatlar önünüze geldiğinde bile alım yapamayabilirsiniz. Sürekli bir ayağınızın piyasada olması bu yüzden gerekli. İnsan piyasadan çıkınca eli soğuyor ve fırsatları değerlendirmekte geç kalıyor. İkincisi, kimse dibin neresi olduğunu ve piyasanın ne zaman döneceğini bilemiyor. Bu arada aynı durum tepeler içinde geçerli. Çünkü “Borsada en tepeden sadece yalancılar satar.”

Market Thoughts 6 Nov 2026 - Equities Bloodbath - At this point, it is quite clear that the trade is over, and has been over for quite some time; Today was the day people decided to *all* rush to the exits in no order whatsoever - Retail momo was the first to go a few months ago, with Space stocks and Quantum all crashing. Then now is the time for semis. 80% of the S&P has been in a bear market the past few months; the 20% are now joining them. - In general, the way I see it now is that it has all been one giant liquidity cycle; In a K-shaped world, money flows to the top 20% of assets that keep the game going, and in this case, it was all in AI; now that the music has stopped, money is flowing out and getting destroyed. - This comes after the fact that the Fed has started a new hiking cycle, you have rising costs of living, a war that hasn't stopped and is devastating for the real economy, and it's all now showing up in real time through a blue sweep in midterms - But of course, the present is already priced in. Now all that's left is what's next. Sadly this sorts of demand destruction is incredibly hard to recover from - you need time. Now that everyone is poor again, you'll need time for some of these assets to bottom out - I believe that there are certain sectors that are also still forming rounded tops - financials being one; so in general over the next few weeks / months we should be seeing more down moves. - Is the AI trade dead though? As assets bottom out, it would be obvious to start picking your horses for the eventual success of the buildout. I do think this is true, but it's going to take time to show who genuinely wins. As the cost of intelligence becomes cheaper and cheaper, it's pretty clear that the whole "infrastructure wins because volume explodes" also isn't as good of an explanation anymore as infrastructure gets better and better. Gun to my head, the winner of better intelligence would instead be the companies that learn to leverage this intelligence into real world outcomes instead (e.g Biotech) - What's the next trade? It looks pretty grim now, for most sectors. At times like this, it's much better to let the market show its hand, but if you really want a decisive answer, going by the charts, digital assets still look the best - although this has been said for the 20th time; - Somehow, every week there is a new "maximally bearish" event and Bitcoin fails to break below 76k. Even if it does break, I have a feeling it's going to fake-out and reclaim. - But from a fundamental standpoint there seems to be no good reason for digital assets to do well. So far, most investors I've asked have backward looking indicators that would justify a pump in hindsight, but doesn't necessitate any sort of buying pressure now. Examples include: 4 year cycle lows, relative strength to equities, or cheap fundamentals - I will say that the most bullish case I can think of is that akin to software, digital assets are uniquely situated in how they can leverage AI to build more economical output much quicker. In a time where the market is starved of any sort of positive catalyst, digital assets are seeing breakneck rates of adoption e.g Druckenmillers investment into Trade[XYZ], tokenization of stocks, equity perps, ICE partnerships, etc. - It would be thus incredibly offside if investors didn't allocate 1-2% minimally into what is potentially a new emerging trend in the markets while everything else crashes. The world hates the previous iteration of crypto, but with this new adoption and people waking up to its usecases, price may follow Overall though, the best thing to do now is probably remain mostly flat, with a small portion of one's book allocated to these new emerging trends. And the larger portion waits until the time is right to allocate into the death knell of some of these assets that will be 10x'es in half a decade.

爽吃了，炒股没有任何难度，7月吃一波反弹，11月又吃一波反弹，只需要看K线和情绪就行了，根本不需要长拿，也不需要了解基本面。

老实说 我感觉现在在币圈做山寨的难度是以前的十倍不止 而且未来只会更难 川普上台后的持续抽水 10.11清算完做市商后场内资金的锐减 这轮被盗后产生的资金空缺 全都是要散户买单 以后想高杠杆吃趋势启动的概率已经微乎其微了 以前钱多可以一起赚，现在扫的就是高杠杆的损 没肉了，蚊子也是肉

@VitalikButerin just opened Devcon and set the tone for the week. A formally verified OS, open silicon, self-sovereign healthtech, free discourse, private communication, trustworthy AI — these are all part of Ethereum's mission.