Matthew Schultz

#teamafn Matthew Schultz & John D’Onofrio taking the mortgage industry by storm. #mortgageindustry

🚨 FED HOLDS RATES! DID WARSH JUST SIGNAL THAT GEOPOLITICS COULD BE THE KEY TO LOWER RATES? 👀 The Fed held rates steady yesterday, as we expected. But what caught my attention was Warsh’s commentary on oil prices and geopolitics. Warsh highlighted the recent correlation between oil prices and market interest rates, acknowledging that geopolitical developments could push oil prices lower and change the inflation outlook. This is exactly what I’ve been discussing for weeks! You cannot fix an energy supply shock by raising interest rates. But a geopolitical breakthrough, particularly an Iran peace deal, could help bring oil prices down, ease inflationary pressure, and give the bond market some much-needed relief. I’ve maintained that an Iran deal could be the catalyst that helps seal a near-term top in Treasury yields. The Fed can influence demand. A peace deal could help restore supply. That’s a BIG difference! The question now is whether diplomacy can deliver before inflation forces the Fed’s hand. 🙏🙏 US10YR flat 5.00% Watching closely. 👀

🚨 FED DAY! 93.4% ODDS OF A HOLD, BUT DECEMBER IS A DIFFERENT STORY! 👀 All eyes on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh today! According to CME FedWatch, markets are pricing a 93.4% probability of NO rate change today, with just a 6.6% chance of a hike. But here’s where it gets interesting. December is pricing an 84.5% probability of at least one rate hike by year-end, including a small probability of additional tightening beyond 25 basis points. Inflation remains stubborn, economic growth is holding up, and longer-term inflation expectations remain elevated. My outlook? I expect a hold today, but unfortunately, I think Warsh could deliver a hawkish message. I think Warsh has to be hawkish today, if we see that I think we will see a bounce up in the US10YR, but I think markets will settled down after it digests the comments. Recent CPI, PPI, and even Truflation readings have been running hot. The real market mover won’t be today’s decision. It will be what Warsh says about inflation, employment, oil prices, and the possibility of additional hikes. I’ve maintained that the Fed needs to be patient. You cannot fix an energy supply shock by raising interest rates. All you risk doing is slowing the economy and putting unnecessary pressure on employment. That brings me back to Iran. I’ve been discussing the possibility of a peace deal for weeks, and I still believe it could be one of the most important catalysts for a near-term top in interest rates. The window is closing. Ideally, Trump would secure a deal before the midterms. It could provide relief to energy markets, inflation expectations, and potentially Treasury yields while delivering a major diplomatic victory. Iran is under tremendous economic pressure. Its currency, trade flows, and oil exports have been severely disrupted. I believe both sides recognize the opportunity, but timing matters. I’m still optimistic we get a deal. However, if negotiations extend beyond the midterms, the political incentives could change, and the risk of additional military escalation may increase. For the mortgage industry, the US10YR reaction matters more than today’s widely expected hold. Can yields continue holding below recent highs? Will Warsh give the bond market a reason to rally, or will his commentary push yields higher? I still believe we may have seen a near-term top in rates, but today’s press conference could be an important test of that thesis. The decision is likely priced in. The message is what matters! US10YR 🔺 4.99% Watching closely.

DON’T GIVE UP NOW. YOU MAY BE CLOSER THAN YOU THINK! 🙏❤️ Sometimes the hardest part of the journey is continuing when you can’t see the results. You’ve been working. Praying. Sacrificing. Showing up. Doing everything you can, yet wondering when things will finally turn around. Here’s your reminder today: Just because you can’t see progress doesn’t mean nothing is happening. God may be opening doors you don’t even know exist yet. Preparing opportunities you haven’t imagined. And putting people in your path who could change everything. 🙏 One phone call. One opportunity. One decision. One unexpected blessing. That’s how quickly life can change. Don’t let a difficult season convince you that your best days are behind you. Keep showing up. Keep doing good. Keep believing in yourself. And most importantly, keep your faith bigger than your fears. Your story isn’t finished. Your purpose hasn’t expired. And your greatest moments may still be ahead of you. ❤️ Sometimes all it takes is the courage to keep going one more day. Trust God. Trust the journey. YOU’VE GOT THIS! 🙏❤️ 👇 Comment “AMEN” if you’re trusting God’s timing and believing that better days are ahead! ❤️ SHARE this with someone who needs a little hope, faith, and encouragement today! #success #motivation #purpose #Happiness #mindset

I WANT TO SEE YOU WIN! YES, YOU! 👀☕❤️ Whatever you’re chasing right now, that dream, that business, better health, financial freedom, or simply a happier life, GO ALL IN! Life’s too short to play small, doubt yourself, or wait for someone to give you permission to succeed. I’m rooting for you, even if we’ve never met. 💪 Show up. Give it everything you’ve got. Believe in yourself. Your success doesn’t take anything away from mine. There’s room for ALL of us to WIN! 🚀❤️ Now let’s GOOOO! ☕🔥 #success #motivation #purpose #Happiness #mindset

YOUR JOURNEY IS YOURS. STOP COMPARING YOUR LIFE TO SOMEONE ELSE’S! 🙏❤️ One of the quickest ways to steal your own happiness is to compare where you are in life to where someone else is. Someone is getting married. Someone is building a business. Someone is buying their dream home. Someone is celebrating a major success. And sometimes you wonder, “Why am I not there yet?” Here’s something I want you to remember… You’re not behind. You’re on YOUR own timeline. ❤️ Everyone has a different starting point, different challenges, different opportunities, and a different purpose. Stop measuring your progress against someone else’s highlight reel. Celebrate your small wins. Be proud of how far you’ve come. And never underestimate the power of showing up every single day. God didn’t create you to live someone else’s life. He gave you your own path, your own gifts, and your own purpose. 🙏 Your journey doesn’t have to look like anyone else’s to be beautiful, meaningful, and successful. Keep growing. Keep believing. Keep becoming the person you’re meant to be. And remember, you’re probably doing a lot better than you give yourself credit for. ❤️ 🙏 Comment “AMEN” if you believe everyone’s journey is different and God’s timing is always worth trusting! ❤️ SHARE this with someone who needs a reminder that they’re doing better than they think! #success #motivation #purpose #Happiness #mindset