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Do the Math: Five Mathematical Reasons Trump Beats Harris in 2024
The math doesn’t lie. Trump will win the national popular vote, all swing states and 312 electoral votes becoming the 47th President of the United States. See the five data points and historical analysis that suggests a Trump victory.
1) The current RealClear Politics direction of the country right track / wrong track average of polls at 63.1% wrong track and 26.7% right directions suggests the incumbent party will lose (footnote 1). The Cook Political Report historical analysis (footnote 2) shows that the incumbent party loses the election when they have high wrong track and low right track numbers. Incumbents have lost with an average of 70% wrong track and 24% right track.
2) According to Gallup, Republicans have a stronger party identification with 48% identifying as Republicans or leaning Republican versus 48% for the Democrats (footnote 3). The Republican party is winning the battle for the hearts and minds of voters for the first time in the modern era.
3) Republican early voting rates have significantly increased from 30.5% in 2020 to 36% in 2024 while Democrat rates has fallen from 44.8% in 2020 to 37.9% in 2024 (footnote 4). The Republican disadvantage in 2020 was a key reason for their lose. The former campaign manager for Barack Obama, Jim Messina, said that the early voting figures from Republicans are "a little scary" for Democrats.
4) Republicans have massively increased national and swing state Republican voter registrations by margins that would have changed the outcome of the 2020 Presidential election (footnote 5). Republicans have improved their registrations by 198,006 or 3.92% in AZ which Biden won by only 10,427 votes in 2020, 440,288 or 5.37% in GA which Biden won by only 11,779 votes in 2020, 97,674 or 1.16% in MI which Biden won by 154,188 votes in 2020, 71,734 or 2.98% in NV which Biden won by 33,596 in 2020, 311,587 or 4.06% in NC which Trump won by 74,481 in 2020, 585,957 or 6.4% in PA which Biden one by 81,660 in 2020, and 86,571 or 1.59% in WI which Biden won by 20,608 votes in 2020. In all States except Michigan, these new registered Republicans would have given Trump the edge and the Presidency in 2020. See footnotes 5 and 6.
5) RealClear Politics November 4th average of polls has Trump tied with Harris for the national vote and leading in five of the seven swing states with enough electoral votes to win the 2024 election (footnote 7). In 2016 Trump over performed the polls by 2.5% and in 2020 by 2.9% (an average of 2.7%). When the RealClear Politics average national and seven swing state polls (AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA and WI) are adjusted by this average, Trump wins the national popular vote, the electoral college and all seven swing states. Only tomorrow’s election will tell if the pollsters improved, but their 2020 performance declined over 2016.
When these five mathematical points are understood and coupled with the significant Democrat disadvantages on the key issues of inflation, economic performance, immigration, foreign wars and crime, it’s hard to see how Harris can win.
#DeSantis2024
#RD24
#DeSantisForPresident
#RonDeSantis
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#Trump2024 #Trump
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#PatriotsUnite
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1. realclearpolling.com/polls/s….
2. cookpolitical.com/analysis/n….
3. news.gallup.com/poll/651092/….
4. newsweek.com/early-voting-fi…
5. teapaw.org/elonmusk/status/185260…
6. abcnews.go.com/Politics/2024….
7. realclearpolling.com/polls/p…
Republican early vote now is massively ahead of where it was in 2020.
If this trend continues, then @realDonaldTrump will win (and I hope he does)
Mark Straton retweeted
Trump: "The Senate is KILLING our country. NOTHING is getting through. And you know what? Our voters saw that. And in my opinion, that's the biggest problem we had. The Save America Act didn't get passed. The Republicans should have passed it."
Mark Straton retweeted
Alito won't retire in the lame duck and he doesn't need to. Trump can nominate someone to the Supreme Court and the senate can confirm without a vacancy. Then Trump can wait to sign the commission any time in the next two years. The question isn't Alito, its Cornyn/Tillis/Thune.
Mark Straton retweeted
It's appalling that the victory of one party or another means that a private citizen and his businesses, none of which have been accused of breaking the law, would suddenly be targeted by the government. That's pure Third World and should outrage everyone. latimes.com/business/story/2…
This is why DeSantis should be President.
Governor Ron Desantis cut taxes by almost $10 billion, cut spending year after year, maxed out the rainy day fund, paid off half the state’s historic debt, kept the budgets balanced with AAA ratings, pushed Amendment 3 to slash property taxes for homeowners, strengthened voter ID, banned ballot harvesting and Zuckerbucks, created an election crimes unit, signed the Florida SAVE Act to verify citizenship, wants a balanced budget amendment, wants to ban stock trading for Congress and the executive branch, backs term limits, and actually goes after special interests instead of kissing their ass.
Every state should be ran like Florida.
100% correct.
The same DO NOTHING RINO House members who have had thousands of hours of hearings that have accomplished ABSOLUTELY NOTHING in the past 10 years, are fighting for control of the Republican House.
HELL NO to useless Jim Jordan and Steve Scalise. We need real America first leaders like @gregsteube or @realBrandonGill in leadership.
John Thune must be defeated as minority leader and any Senator supporting him needs to be primaried and defeated. He’s incompetent and he’s not a Republican. @GOPSenate @GOP @VP @POTUS @RonDeSantis @SecRubio @SecScottBessent
He’s my choice for speaker. Republicans need the next generation of leaders and good public spokespersons. That’s not Scalise and Jordan.
When's the last time you heard Jim Jordan talk like this..answer is... never
Raise your hand ✋️ if you want @SpeakerJohnson to endorse Brandon Gill to be the next Minority leader
Jim Jordan will work with Jeffries, Gill will work to stop Jeffries
Remove Thune. Incompetent. Any Republican Senators supporting him needs to be primaried and defeated. @GOPSenate @SenRickScott @SenAshleyMoody @VP @POTUS @SecRubio @SecScottBessent @GOP
Mark Straton retweeted
🚨BREAKING: Sen. Mike Lee is calling on the Senate to stay in session, cancel its vacation, and confirm all 135 of President Trump’s nominees before Chuck Schumer takes the gavel in January.
Lee says every vacant seat left open hands Democrats an advantage the moment they take control.
He is placing the responsibility directly on Majority Leader John Thune to keep the Senate working and get the confirmations done now.
The window is closing.
Mark Straton retweeted
🚨 DESANTIS WANTS COTS IN THE SENATE CLOAKROOM.
He is urging Republicans to work around the clock and confirm every pending Trump judge before January 3.
Lifetime appointments matter more than Washington's vacation plans.
Sleep in February.
Jason Chaffetz gets things right in the article Five Timeless Political Lessons attached.
“Number 2. Results must be felt. A majority is judged by outcomes people can feel, not by legislative talking points. The Senate had two years. Voters do not grade on process. They grade on whether prices at the pump and the grocery store stopped rising, whether their communities felt safe and whether the problems they voted to fix in 2024 actually got fixed. A Senate that refuses to build on the work of the House, maximize judicial appointments or secure the president’s signature election security promise is asking for a loss. Excuses do not win midterms. Outcomes do. A majority that is perpetually in recess and does not deliver consistent results should expect to pay dearly. That is neither new nor complicated.”
Republican Senators must dismiss John Thune. @GOPSenate @GOP @vp @POTUS @SecRubio @SecScottBessent @RonDeSantis @SenRickScott @SenAshleyMoody
foxnews.com/opinion/jason-ch…
Jim Jordan is the last person I want leading the Republican minority. I want a good spokesperson who the American public can relate to and someone who actually gets things done. Lothar’s not Jordan. Johnson should run for speaker again. He did a good job. @GOP @GOPHouseOfRep @VP @POTUS @SpeakerJohnson
🚨 JIM JORDAN IS IN: "I am running to serve as Republican Leader in the 120th Congress."
His letter: "In times like these, I'm reminded of the resilience and optimism of the American people. When Americans get knocked down, they pick themselves up and get back to work. Now our Conference must do the same."
Then the line that matters: "Offense, not defense, wins elections."
Scalise is running too. He is telling colleagues his number one goal is leading the conference back into the majority.
Mike Johnson told his staff this morning he is not running at all.
All three of them spent the last two years in charge.
They lost the House. Now they want a promotion.
Remove Thune.
Speaker Johnson didn’t really do anything wrong, if anything he did about as much as he could do and delivered some tough votes. Never the less, as a leader he accepted responsibility for the outcome, whether that was fair or not.
On the other hand, Thune, who absolutely failed to deliver in the Senate and didn’t get things done, is refusing to accept responsibility and step down.
In a fair environment, Johnson would retain his position and Thune would step down.
This must be done and Thune must be voted out. Total incompetent.
Imagine holding the Senate for two years and waking up the morning after you lose it to suddenly discover there are judicial seats that still need filling… and now everybody wants to roll in the cots.
Ron DeSantis said it plain today, "You are not going to be able to confirm any conservative judges starting January 3rd for the remainder of President Trump's term. You cannot leave anything on the table." He is right, and Ryan is right, and yet where was this urgency in January, or in June, or a month ago when these same people were telling you the map was safe and the red wave was in the bag?
Here is the reality. The Senate GOP had the gavel, the calendar and the votes, and they treated the job like a part time gig while the people who sent them there begged for judges who would actually read the Constitution instead of rewriting it from the bench. Every lawfare ruling you screamed about this year came out of a courtroom somebody had the power to fill... and they sat on their hands.
I do not believe last night was real, and you all know exactly where I stand on that, but you do not get to lose the Senate and then also hand team evil the courts on your way out the door. That is the one thing still sitting in your hands.
So John Thune, cancel the recess, keep the lights on, and put every conservative nominee you can get to the floor up for a vote before the gavel changes hands. Nobody goes home. How is this even a thing that it takes a wipeout to get Republicans to do the job they were hired to do?
Think I am wrong? Show me the calendar. End stop.
Mark Straton retweeted
If Thune and his RINO buddies would grow a spine, in the next 60 days they could nuke the filibuster and pass Trump's entire agenda.
The best part is that Democrats couldn't do a damn thing because Trump would veto any attempt to overturn!
But knowing Thune, he'll send everyone into recess and do NOTHING.
Mark Straton retweeted
No. You didn’t. You are absolutely 100% wrong. You did nothing of the sort. @NRSC Senate Republicans under YOUR “leadership” did nothing. Nothing.
You had the chance to begin the process of saving our election system from the radical left. By passing the SAVE America Act. But K Street either didn’t care or opposed it. So why bother, right?
Because the GOP Senate only does what can be monetized via those endless lobbyist dinners / fundraisers. If it can’t raise you money? Probably not worth doing.
And you BERATED @BasedMikeLee for trying to get you to work full weeks, to try to pass the SAVE America Act. Or to work a weekend sometime. Or not to recess for weeks in March and then again recess for a month in August. You and your fellow GOP Senators told him that nobody cared about the SAVE America Act. That he needed to sit down and shut up.
And the American people watched you, day after lazy, do-nothing day. And how you literally could not come up with a single idea to manage the Senate rules to get the bill passed. You just could not figure it out. Because you really didn’t and don’t care. And because you just are clueless.
What’s all the fuss, you say. It’s not a big deal to you that our election system has been taken over and manipulated by the left. That aliens by the hundreds of thousands are on our voter rolls, that there are illegal votes by the thousands in the election results…and that it matters. It matters to the USA. But not to you @LeaderJohnThune
So now, you don’t have to worry about it. You don’t have to be in charge of producing meaningful results for the American people. They just sent you to your room without any supper. I’m sure you must be relieved. You and your fellow GOP colleagues who just flat couldn’t be bothered to figure out how to save our elections.
Well done, you. What a waste of space you’ve been as a leader. That term should never be applied to you or to your inner circle.
Utterly disgusted by the lot of you. You did this. Tuesday was the Thune election. You own it. Hope you’re happy.
@EIwatchdogs @seanmdav @EricLDaugh @elonmusk @realDonaldTrump @Bannons_WarRoom @greg_price11 @RealAmVoice