i agree with ansem here
rebalancing the port a bit to reflect this. nothing drastic, but enough to make a difference.
i am bearish btc/eth & large cap stocks believe btc & eth have broken mid timeframe trend and will continue to accelerate to downside under 82k/2400
dont think the average retail speculator is going to slow down tho, Q4 is going to have a lot of volatility for traders in both directions & believe pockets of onchain will do well
headline risk is also very real and continues to impact markets, this week specifically we have fomc + lot of important earnings releases
technicals am bearish bc ai momo stocks look like parabolic blowoff top into following lower high and loss of trend, even mags stalling at ATHs, the breakout on Qs that looked great a few weeks ago has played out as a deviation above the highs
as it stands ai generally feels like there is a lot more uncertainty on where the next growth of revenues is going to come from, sofar we have had a ton of capex spending on investing in training these models across the board so believe investors will want to see how that impacts companies bottom line meaningfully, meta selloff post earnings last week is good indi, that combined with concerns around current state of models also breaking hella security across the internet is not great - am not bearish on extended timeframe just believe pullback before continuation higher
except i'm not sure about the retail speculator staying resilient
if the AI trade continues to cool off, i don't see how volumes don't as well
it feels like we've hit peak levels of uncertainty and anxiety. i suppose that could change if things start melting down but i don't think they will.
Private credit to the rescue somehow
$SPCX - SPACEX SIGNS $40 BILLION GPU FINANCING DEAL WITH APOLLO
SpaceX has entered into a binding commitment for a master finance lease with Apollo Global Management ($APO ), according to an SEC filing.
Apollo will purchase GPU pods and related equipment and lease them to SpaceX, with aggregate scheduled principal payments expected to total $40 billion.
The agreement is expected to close before year-end 2026.
The key takeaway: SpaceX is securing large-scale GPU infrastructure through lease financing, highlighting the enormous capital requirements of AI expansion.
mtn drew retweeted
I love Zuckerberg front running the Anthropic IPO just like Brin front ran the SpaceX IPO (which marked the top of the semi rally.) Tech Lords are ruthlessly opportunistic. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Just not big enough
$META announced plans to raise approximately $35 billion through two offerings:
> $22.5B in Class A common stock through forward sale agreements.
> $12.5B in depositary shares representing mandatory convertible preferred stock.
Interestingly, NVIDIA, AMD and Broadcom have expressed nonbinding interest in purchasing up to $5 billion of Meta shares combined.
Meta is also planning a potential $60 billion offering program for its new nonvoting Class C shares starting in Q1 2027.
Together, the plans could provide approximately $95 billion in equity financing capacity as Meta prepares to spend $135B to $145B on capital expenditures in 2026.
I'm torn
On one hand, these have been looming for a long time now and their rate of deterioration has been very gradual. Markets might have become complacent after being a bear due to these catalysts got punished over and over.
On the other hand, markets are forward looking. Everyone is aware of these problems and they are pretty well understood at this point. If all this is going on and the market doesn't want to break down, maybe it just really wants to go up.
That being said, the market is very much riding on one trade right now (AI). And the AI complex is actively in retreat. It's obvious the driver is people losing confidence in the AI revenue story, but still.
My best steelman of the bear case is that maybe investors are still in denial and under the assumption that Trump could end this whole disaster at the snap of his finger if he wanted to. Couldn't tell you when they'll throw in the towel on this idea.
Not up for an Ackman-sized tweet, but this is what I'm seeing:
- Early voting is swinging massively towards Ds
- Ds are not friendly to AI and data centers
- Trump loses midterms, he is going to obliterate Iran
- Oil goes to $200, a genuine energy crisis
- Reserves depleted to get it down
- Credit spreads ripping higher
- The usual concerns about private credit/insurers
If stocks were ever to drop, it will probably happen in the next few weeks
Great episode
I found it interesting that although they discuss a little bit of macro stuff, there was not one mention of the situation in the Middle East
Obviously not the topic of the episode, but it just seems to be becoming a bigger and bigger deal
open.spotify.com/episode/405…
One year later...
$HYPE up 119%
@chameleon_jeff
Grok says this cash came from earlier equity sales, presumably from when mNAV was >1
*HYPERLIQUID STRATEGIES INCREASED ITS STOCK REPURCHASE PROGRAM FROM $30 MILLION TO $100 MILLION
$PURR