General Strike

“Covid is over.” “Covid is a nothing-burger.” Let’s run a simulation to see how long it’ll take before the majority of the population has persistent infection/chronic disease [LongCovid] with the following assumptions: Initial Infection: •67% of the US population has had Covid once since 2020. •10% of those will have persistent Covid. •This means 6.7% of the US population has persistent Covid from the initial infection. Reinfections: •50% of the US population has had Covid two or more times since 2020. •The risk of persistent Covid compounds with each infection. So, for the first reinfection, the risk is 10% + 5% = 15%. For the second reinfection, it's 15% + 5% = 20%, and so on. •From the first reinfection, 50% * 15% = 7.5% of the US population will have persistent Covid. •From the second reinfection, 50% * 20% = 10% of the US population will have persistent Covid. Total as of 8/28/23: •From initial infections and reinfections, 6.7% + 7.5% + 10% = 24.2% of the US population will have persistent Covid. Now, let's project into the future shall we? •The spread continues at a rate 10% faster each year, with an average of 2 infections per year. •The risk of persistent Covid compounds by 5% with each reinfection. End of Year 1 (8/28/24): •67% * 1.10 = 73.7% of the US population gets infected this year. •Of the remaining 75.8% (100% - 24.2%), 73.7% or 55.9% get infected. •From these infections, 10% + 5% = 15% or 8.385% get persistent Covid from the first infection and 15% + 5% = 20% or 11.18% from the second infection. •Total with persistent Covid = 24.2% + 8.385% + 11.18% = 43.765% End of Year 2 (8/28/25): •73.7% * 1.10 = 81.07% of the US population gets infected this year. •Of the remaining 56.235% (100% - 43.765%), 81.07% or 45.6% get infected. •From these infections, 20% + 5% = 25% or 11.4% get persistent Covid from the first infection and 25% + 5% = 30% or 13.68% from the second infection. •Total with persistent Covid = 43.765% + 11.4% + 13.68% = 68.845% By the end of the second year (8/28/25), 68.845% of the US population will have persistent Covid, which exceeds the 51% target. …So, it will take less than 2 years from today 8/28/23 for 51% of the population to have persistent Covid given these assumptions. I think these are entirely reasonable assumptions unless there are some changes around here… 1. Shifts in public perceptions of risk (after infection or reinfection that causes fear, attitude & behavior change) 2. Investment in & fast deployment of clean air technology in hot spots like schools, hospitals and public restrooms that could reduce spread. 3. Viral mutations (slower or faster transmissibility or changes in pathogenicity) The only thing that seems possible at this moment in time, here in the US, is (3). And that’d be pure luck. It could go either way or just stay the same.