Prices, since start of the year. European natural gas: +233% UK natural gas: +212% Heating oil: +134% Brent crude: +91% Gasoline: +87% US crude oil: +79% Coal: +40%

I felt uncomfortable watching @ModoEnergy’s podcast on the future of Britain’s gas network with Cadent’s Director of Energy System Operations. The engineering discussion was interesting. Ed’s questions were thoughtful, and the conversation remained polite. But I sensed a tension between exploring the network’s future and defending its continued relevance. At times, it felt like an industry in denial about the scale of change ahead. 1. Hydrogen blending needed much more scrutiny. A 20% hydrogen blend is 20% by VOLUME, not energy. Because hydrogen contains much less energy per cubic metre than natural gas, it supplies only around 7% of the blend’s energy. The reduction in direct CO₂ emissions for equivalent heating is therefore only around 7–8%, before accounting for hydrogen production and other lifecycle impacts. That distinction was missing from the discussion. Blending cannot deliver anything approaching the decarbonisation domestic heating requires. 2. Hydrogen for home heating remains deeply unconvincing. Using renewable electricity to manufacture hydrogen, process and transport it, then burn it in a boiler requires several times more electricity than delivering the same heat through a heat pump. The Climate Change Committee excludes hydrogen boilers and hydrogen–heat-pump hybrids from its Balanced Pathway. Hydrogen has more credible uses in industrial clusters, particularly where it is required as a feedstock or where direct electrification is difficult. That was the more convincing direction discussed. 3. Retaining gas boilers is not the only way to manage demand peaks. Hybrid heat pumps can reduce peak electricity demand by switching to a boiler during cold weather. But the alternatives deserve equal attention. Domestic batteries, thermal storage, insulation, modest preheating and smart controls can all help. Where comfortable and appropriate, temporarily reducing the thermostat by a degree or two can also lower demand during a critical period. My own battery normally powers my house, including the heat pump, from 17:30 to 23:30. Cold spells can shorten that window, but it still substantially reduces peak grid imports while saving money on my electricity bill. Keeping a second heating appliance and gas connection for occasional peaks needs a convincing whole-system economic case. It should not simply be assumed to be the sensible solution. 4. Twenty-four years is not a distant future for infrastructure planning. The UK’s legally binding net zero deadline is 2050. The CCC’s pathway envisages fully decarbonised home heating by then, without domestic gas boilers. Yet replacement pipes were discussed as assets lasting 80–100 years. Their physical lifespan does not establish an economic need for them throughout that period. The explanation that gas networks cannot shrink neatly as individual households disconnect makes coordinated transition planning more urgent. How will declining demand be managed? Who pays for decommissioning? How do we prevent rising costs falling onto fewer remaining customers? 5. Perhaps ownership needs to be part of that discussion. A privately owned network has a commercial incentive to preserve its revenue base. That can conflict with an orderly retirement of infrastructure that households no longer need. Public ownership, with an explicit remit to manage the transition and protect customers and workers, deserves consideration alongside stronger regulation. Acquisition and decommissioning costs would need transparent scrutiny. What left me uncomfortable was hearing so much about ways to preserve the network’s role, and too little about planning for its decline. An affordable transition should be the objective. Keeping the existing business model alive should not be. Episode: modoenergy.com/transmission-… Climate Change Committee: theccc.org.uk/publication/th… #HeatPumps #Hydrogen #NetZero #ClimateChange