RealPortfolio

American Express $AXP Chairman, CEO Sold Shares Worth Over $99M .. what a timing, maybe he knows something.. maybe not

Intel $INTC -50% since Oct 1. SanDisk $SNDK -40%. Micron $MU -24%. The chips didn't break, the buyers did: Amazon $AMZN spent $77.3B in one quarter and its 12-month free cash flow is -$42.4B. No chip buys for me until $SMH closes back above $572. Nvidia $NVDA reports Nov 17.

$META just sold about $37.5B of new stock: $25B of common at $625 a share plus $12.5B of 6.5% convertible preferred. Q3 free cash flow was -$2.1B, the first negative quarter since 2012, and up to $60B more is planned from 2027. My line stays at $615.

Netflix $NFLX grew profit 44% last quarter. The stock fell about 6% this morning to a 52-week low anyway. Why: its 2026 ad outlook dropped to about $2.7B from $3B, while the subscription outlook went up. At about 18x earnings, it now trades below the S&P 500 average.

Anon: They say "money doesn't buy happiness" but it would literally solve all my problems which would make me very happy. RBL: well you mean most of the money problems not all problems. but yea I'll take it

CoreWeave $CRWV down 25%. Nebius $NBIS down 25%. Nasdaq's worst week since June. Who's next? $NVDA , $META , $GOOG , $ORCL , $MU , $SNDK

CoreWeave's $CRWV bonds hit a 16% yield this week. Stock down 25% in five days on about $52B of debt and leases. Big Tech borrowed about $220B too, but Google $GOOG fell 2.5% Friday while CoreWeave fell 12%. The market isn't scared of debt. It's picky about who owes it.

September CPI: 3.7%, core +0.3%, gasoline +9.1% in one month. The chip ETF is 20.5% off its high while Exxon $XOM , Chevron $CVX and the big refiners hit new highs. Valero's $VLO Q3 estimate: $20.89 a share vs $12.62 last quarter. Who pays the inflation bill, who cashes it, and my levels.

Mortgages hit 7.40%. The Fed is hiking again. Today chips got hit (SanDisk $SNDK -6.8%, Micron $MU -4.6%) while oil stocks made new highs. CPI lands Wednesday 8:30 AM, expected 3.6%. Which of my stocks are on each side, and what I'm doing before the print:

SpaceX $SPCX bought ~$8B of airwaves. By Friday's close T-Mobile, AT&T and Verizon had lost ~$57B in value. Barclays says SpaceX goes to $254. But up to 1.6B SpaceX shares can unlock from Oct 24. The date I'm watching before I buy:

PepsiCo $PEP closed at $123.73, a new 52-week low and 26% off its high, one day before earnings. Coca-Cola sits 7% from its high. Same aisle, opposite charts. My line: no buy before the report; a Roth starter only if it holds $125.16 Thursday and Friday.

Cerebras $CBRS IS up about 6% premarket after Sam Altman called it a close partner. The $10B OpenAI deal in the headlines is from January. 19.4M shares unlock Oct 14, more on Oct 28 and after Q3. What I'm watching before I buy.

#Gold is 25% off its January record. My 26-cent gold stock is still up 61% from my cost. I also got one thing wrong: it traded at 31 cents and I didn't sell half. New video: what I missed, and why some miners rise while gold falls.

$META rose 13% this week to about $751. The Fed hike pushed the 10-year yield to 5.135% Wednesday. No META order was in before its $779.82 record. This weekend I place a $615 order and a starter near $750.

“In financial markets, as long as one is careful with legalities, it is apparently permissible to make extravagant promises that never materialize.” ~anon

#Silver -3.9% to $64.39 Wednesday. #Gold -1.7%. 10-year at 5.1%, highest since 2007. My sell line is $62 on a weekly close. Two sessions left.

$META ran 11% Monday after Wells Fargo set a $796 target, two days before Connect. My buy order is still at $615. Q2 free cash flow: $784M, down from $8.55B. 2026 capex guide: $130-145B.

Wells Fargo just cut $NFLX to Underweight with a $57 target. Evercore has it at $110. Consensus is $93.88. Same company. Same week. A 93% spread between the bull and the bear. My limit filled at $73.63 the day before the downgrade. I'm not adding.