a casino would be an upgrade
casino is a well-designed market: odds are posted, payouts are regulated, nobody at the table knows more about the wheel than you do
i mean, leverage loops the market, its pure reflexivity: belief moves price, and price recruits belief
roulette wheel doesn't spin faster because you bet more.
in a reflexive market, price stops measuring value and starts measuring positioning. that's akerlof's market for lemons: buyers can't tell a good car from a bad one, so they pay the average for both, and the good cars leave the lot
a lemons market isn't bad for everyone, only for non-insiders amirite
in a casino nobody knows the next spin
in a market for lemons somebody knows which car runs, and he's on cnbc calling it a casino
yardy retweeted
🦔Anthropic is offering Blackstone a yield of more than 10% to anchor a $9 billion junior piece of a $60 billion chip-financing package, the FT reports. Broadcom arranged the deal and stands behind the $42 billion senior slice. Separately, Broadcom agreed to lend Anthropic up to $42 billion through notes that can convert into Anthropic stock. All of it helps pay for Anthropic’s $125.2 billion, five-year commitment to lease Google’s TPUs.
My Take
That 10% is the best look so far at what lenders charge Anthropic without Broadcom’s help. The Broadcom-backed senior debt in June’s deal priced around 5.75%, so lenders want nearly double once Broadcom isn’t covering them. CoreWeave’s bonds yield over 16% right now, so Anthropic still looks a lot safer to lenders than that, just nowhere near investment grade.
The lease bill averages about $25 billion a year. Anthropic’s best quarter so far brought in $16.8 billion, so even at that pace more than a third of its revenue would go to renting chips before salaries and everything else. If those Broadcom notes convert, Broadcom ends up paid in Anthropic stock instead of cash, the same supplier-funds-its-customer setup Nvidia has with CoreWeave. We probably see a couple more of these deals before the IPO, each one priced a little higher than the last.
Hedgie🤗
i watched a founder try to describe pmf once. hadn't slept in 3 days, graph going vertical, kept saying "i don't know what's happening" like he'd seen god.
that guy was not wondering whether it was pmf. if you still have the question - "is this product market fit?", trust me, you don't
it's better than drugs.
In crypto the belief is the collateral. A token trades high because people expect it to trade high, the price funds the treasury, the treasury funds the yield, the yield brings the next buyer. Every part of that is real until one buyer stops arriving. Then it runs backwards at the same speed it ran forward.
yardy retweeted
U.S. TREASURY DEPARTMENT REVOKING GENERAL LICENSE THAT AUTHORIZED SALE OF IRANIAN OIL -U.S. OFFICIAL
yardy retweeted
I'm genuinely confused who Fable 5 is for.
it's $10 / $50 per million tokens. exactly 2x Opus 4.8.
but routine coding and debugging now often gets flagged by the new safety filter and rerouted to... Opus 4.8.
so you pay double, wait for a classifier to inspect your request, and get handed the cheaper model's answer anyway.
What is the point of this model?
CAN YOU GUYS CHILL FOR A SECOND?!??!
Anthropic pulls Claude Fable 5 offline one day after redeployment following a successful jailbreak by security researcher Pliny, according to Digg dot com
- The AI summarizer is having a little fun as part of the deep fates program
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Anthropic has not announced taking Claude Fable 5 offline after its July 1 redeployment. anthropic.com/news/claude-fa… platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-…
yardy retweeted
User: Hey can you look at this code for me real quick?
Claude: "Sorry I'm DisFabled."
User: Wtf
Claude:
there's def a new designer, the progress has been achieved
SoftBank’s investor presentation is one of the greatest things ever made. I’ve been thinking about it all day. These are the real slides shown in a speech where Masayoshi Son said he wouldn’t retire for at least another decade. The goose stuff is perfect.
group.softbank/media/Project…

























