NAIVEDH SHAH

+54% in rice prices since Jan 2026. For India, rice is an interesting commodity to watch. For us at Care PMS, this isn't a new theme we are chasing after the recent price move. We currently have ~10% exposure to Basmati rice in the portfolio. India is the world’s largest rice exporter, accounting for ~40% of global rice shipments. More importantly, when it comes to Basmati, India has a dominant position globally, with ~85% of global Basmati export volumes. And this is not just a domestic story. Nearly 60–70% of India’s Basmati exports are linked to the Middle East and West Asia. Despite the geopolitical disruptions this year, India’s Basmati export volumes grew ~7.5% in FY26. Sometimes “boring” businesses start looking very interesting when the underlying commodity moves and the macro starts validating what the portfolio was already positioned for. What’s probably driving the move? • Supply concerns: El Niño is raising the risk of drier weather across Asia, with rice among the crops most exposed to the weather cycle. Global 2026/27 rice production is currently expected to decline. • Indian paddy prices are already moving: domestic paddy prices have risen sharply, with non-basmati rice prices up ~15–20% over the past month in some markets. • Monsoon risk: August rainfall is forecast to be below normal, while cumulative kharif sowing remains below last year’s levels. Disclaimer: This post is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Picture Source : @tEconomics