Egypt, Eritrea, and Ethiopia may be sliding towards a war on one side of the Red Sea to another vs the Houthis. Add the risks of Somalia vs Somaliland, and the mess in Sudan and South Sudan, and the chaos in Libya,… And Pakistan now bombing Afghanistan,… And then a U.S. escalation vs Iran that could involve the whole GCC,… And then how that can conflate with an escalation of Russia-Ukraine potentially involving Europe,… And you see why I am talking ‘War and Peace’.

2026, day 89 Good morning from Asia. ‘Israel faces pressure to end Iran strikes as US pushes ceasefire-for-talks option’ (Ynet) - “Officials say Washington is pressing for the war to wind down within days to allow possible US-Iran negotiations, even as Israel doubts a deal is likely and sees potential American ground action as a preferable next step”; ‘Donald Trump says US could ‘take the oil in Iran’’ (FT) - “US president tells the FT he is considering seizing strategic Kharg Island even as negotiations continue”; ‘Trump Weighs Military Operation to Extract Iran’s Uranium’ (WSJ) - “The president hasn’t made a decision, U.S. officials said, as he considers the risk to U.S. troops”; ‘Iran’s heavy water production plant no longer operational, IAEA says’ (Al Arabiya); ‘Pakistan prepares to host peace talks as Iran accuses US of ground assault plans’ (Reuters); ‘Iran Threatens Payback if U.S. Launches Ground Invasion’ (WSJ); ‘Iran’s missile infrastructure severely strained after weeks of strikes’ (WaPo); ‘Kuwait Says Power Plant Hit by Iranian Strike, Killing One Worker’ (WSJ); ‘Iranian missile attack sparks blaze in chemical plant, fears of hazardous leak’ (ToI); ‘Russia took satellite images of US base in Saudi Arabia before Iran strike: Zelensky’ (The Hill); ‘How Iran destroyed US base’s $500m battlefield nerve centre’ (Telegraph); ‘Why Russia Is Stepping Up Its Support for an Embattled Iran’ (WSJ! - “Moscow is trying to salvage what is left of a shrinking web of global partnerships”; ‘What the Houthis’ entry into the Iran war means for the conflict and the wider region’ (Guardian); ‘France detains two more suspects over foiled Paris Bank of America attack’ (Reuters); ‘Netanyahu Lets Catholic Leader into Jerusalem Church Following Criticism’ (WSJ); ‘Iran’s ambassador won’t leave Lebanon despite expulsion, diplomatic source says’ (AFP); ‘Israel's Netanyahu orders expansion of southern Lebanon operations to halt Hezbollah rockets’ (Reuters); ‘$500 and a trip abroad: How recruits end up in Russian sabotage training camps’ (Politico); ‘U.S. to Allow Russian Oil Tanker to Reach Cuba, Breaking Blockade’ (NYT); ‘Why revived China-Philippine talks won’t lead to energy cooperation in the South China Sea’ (SCMP); In geoeconomics, ‘Iran activates its ‘resistance economy’ to survive the war’ (FT); There are claims the UAE has seized $530 billion from Iran and removed all Iranian residents from Dubai; ‘National cabinet to plan for fuel rationing, but hopes to avoid it’ (AFR); ‘Keir Starmer to meet fuel bosses as fears grow over Iran war shortages’ (The Times); ‘Hormuz shock sparks defense concerns and a push for green jet fuel’ (Politico); ‘Karachi leverages Iran war, wins a year's worth of transshipment in 24 days’ (Nikkei Asia); ‘EU’s Šefčovič confirms push for Western steel club with US and U.K.’ (Politico); ‘Huawei poaches top German scientist, as scholars blame academic system’ (Nikkei Asia) - “Lawmakers call for tighter rules over fears of Chinese tech know-how theft, sabotage”; In politics, ‘Tony Blair says left's 'unholy alliance with Islamists' is endangering U.K.’ (LBC); ‘Starmer told to ‘get a grip’ of McSweeney phone scandal’ (Telegraph); ‘EU wants to open deportation hubs in Africa this year’ (The Times); ‘Inside the shift in Labor heartland to One Nation’ (Australian); ‘Pope seems to rebuke Trump in remarks about leaders with ‘hands full of blood’’ (Guardian); In markets, ‘Oil Gains as Iran War Escalates With Houthi Attacks on Israel’ (BBG); ‘Aluminum Surges 6% After Iran Strikes Plants in UAE, Bahrain’ (BBG); ‘Eurozone borrowing costs soar on fears of fiscal hit from Iran shock’ (FT); ‘Three Reasons the Stock Market Can Endure the War’ (WSJ); ‘Why Kenneth Rogoff thinks China’s yuan will be a reserve currency ‘in the next 5 years’’ (SCMP); ‘Bitcoin resilience amid Iran war raises optimism about crypto adoption in ASEAN’ (Nikkei Asia)

2026, day 86 Good morning from Asia. ‘Donald Trump extends Iran talks deadline after sell-off on Wall Street’ (FT) - “US stocks post worst day since Middle East crisis began as fresh inflation fears send Treasury yields higher”; ‘US proposal to end war is ‘one-sided and unfair,’ Iranian official says’ (Al Arabiya); ‘US said mulling ‘final blow’ options if Iran talks fail, including sending troops to seize key assets’ (ToI); ‘Trump Weighs Sending Another 10,000 Ground Troops to the Middle East’ (WSJ); ‘US deploys uncrewed drone boats in conflict with Iran’ (Reuters); ‘Israel Races to Cripple Iran’s Arms Production Before War Ends’ (WSJ) - “Targeting priorities have shifted to inflicting lasting damage to industrial sites, as hopes of regime change fade”; ‘Israel kills Alireza Tangsiri, IRGC Navy chief 'behind blocking of Strait of Hormuz'’ (JPost); ‘Iran’s hardline new leaders take control’ (FT) - “US-Israeli assassinations have left a regime that looks more hawkish at home and abroad”; ‘Iran hardliners ramp up calls for a nuclear bomb, sources say’ (Reuters); ‘Iran recruits children as young as 12 for checkpoints in Tehran’ (Al Arabiya); ‘American troops forced to withdraw from Middle East bases’ (Telegraph) - “Iran’s missile and drone strikes have left some facilities ‘almost uninhabitable’”; ‘US denies targeting Iraqi forces, says it sought locations repeatedly’ (Al Arabiya); ‘Chief of Staff Zamir warns IDF will collapse due to lack of manpower, raises 'ten red flags'’ (JPost); ‘Yemen's Houthis may cut off trade route between Asia and Europe, Iran claims’ (9News); ‘France says it approached 35 countries over future Hormuz mission’ (Reuters); ‘Senior Hamas official assails Board of Peace envoy for conditioning reconstruction on disarmament’ (ToI); ‘Trump scorches NATO for failing Iran loyalty test, debates bailing on alliance’ (NYPost); ‘Trump describes UK aircraft carriers as ‘toys’ in latest anti-Nato jibe’ (Guardian); ‘'NATO safer under Trump,' says Secretary General Mark Rutte’ (Euronews); In geoeconomics, ‘Saudi finance minister warns of impact on global economy amid ongoing Iran war’ (Al Arabiya); ‘Cyclone forces WA LNG shutdowns, worsening global gas crunch’ (AFR); ‘24 days to disaster: Trump’s new deadline won’t change oil shock maths’ (AFR) - “It’s hard to avoid thinking Trump’s fresh cutoff for a deal with Iran wasn’t partly prompted by a sell-off on Wall Street. Whatever the case, he’s running out of time”; ‘Trump claims Iran ‘begging to make a deal’ but teases new aid for farmers amid war fallout’ (SCMP); ‘Putin says Iran war consequences could be as serious as those of COVID-19 pandemic’ (Al Arabiya); ‘Vietnam, Philippines seek oil aid from Japan amid Mideast war’ (Nikkei Asia); ‘Carney’s mega anti-Trump alliance starts quest to save world trade’ (Politico) - “Nearly 40 nations are hatching a plan to save the WTO or, if it can’t be salvaged, to build a new order”; ‘Not so fast: Brussels snubs Merz's suggestion for EU-China trade deal’ (Euronews); ‘China threatens Mexico with trade reprisals over 50% import duties’ (SCMP); ‘Patriots' paradox: Trump's far-right European allies refuse to support his EU trade deal’ (Euractiv); ‘German Armed Forces Association calls to prepare for war economy’ (Euractiv); ‘EU countries push to set up deportation hubs by year-end’ (Politico); ‘Trump to sidestep Congress, pay TSA workers’ (Axios); ‘McSweeney phone theft claims don’t add up, says Badenoch’ (Telegraph) - “Tory leader claims there is ‘something fishy going on’”; In markets, ‘Anthropic wins court order blocking Pentagon’s security threat designation’ (FT); ‘US bond market shows signs of strain as Iran war sparks Treasury tumult’ (FT); ‘Federal Reserve could cut balance sheet by $2tn without market turmoil, says Miran’ (FT); ‘Trump’s Signature to Appear on U.S. Paper Currency’ (WSJ) - “Set to be the first sitting president to have his name on American money, Treasury Department says”

2026, day 85 Good morning from Asia. ‘Most of Iran’s Missile Plants Are Damaged or Destroyed, U.S. Says’ (WSJ) - “White House threatens more attacks if Tehran doesn't make a deal to end the conflict”; ‘Russia sending drones to Iran, western intelligence says’ (FT); ‘Russia sought to blackmail US using intelligence to Iran, Zelenskiy says’ (Reuters); ‘US Troop Movements Fan Fears of a Risky Ground Attack on Iran’ (BBG); ‘How a US assault on Kharg Island could unfold’ (FT) - “Seizing Iran’s oil export hub by sea or air would choke regime but risks dragging American troops into open-ended conflict”; ‘White House: US ahead of expected 4-6 week timeline for Iran war; ‘very close’ to meeting objectives’ (ToI); ‘Iran could take action in Bab al-Mandab Strait if provoked, Tasnim news agency says’ (Reuters); ‘Iran officials reply coldly to truce offer, as US warns of harsher strikes if rejected’ (ToI); ‘"They'll get mowed down": Trump rebuffed Netanyahu idea to call for Iran uprising’ (Axios); ‘The Narrow Path to a U.S.‑Iran Deal’ (WSJ) - “Both sides will have to scale back demands, but their history points to a way to get it done”; ‘Iran says it is reviewing US proposal to end war’ (Reuters); ‘Gulf states slam Iran attacks on their territories as flagrant violation of sovereignty’ (Al Arabiya); ‘Uganda military chief: Iran war must end, but we’ll join it if Israel’s at risk of defeat’ (ToI); ‘A CEO Sees Four War Outcomes: ‘The Good, the Bad, the Ugly and the Very Ugly’’ (WSJ); ‘Netanyahu says Israel is expanding ‘buffer zone’ in Lebanon’ (AFP); ‘Lockheed Martin's Martell says warfare requires human-machine teamwork’ (Axios); ‘Pentagon announces major surge in missile production’ (Defense News); ‘Pentagon inks deal with BAE, Lockheed to quadruple THAAD seeker production’ (Defense News); ‘Trump’s ‘absurdly incoherent’ Iran pleas leave allies befuddled’ (Politico); ‘Xi-Trump summit: White House locks in new dates in May, Beijing silent’ (SCMP); ‘Analysis: Xi Jinping finds himself in a Japan-US dilemma’ (Nikkei Asia) - “The Chinese leader wants to attack Sanae Takaichi but not Donald Trump”; ‘At least 40% of Russia's oil export capacity halted, Reuters calculations show’ (Reuters) - “Ukraine intensified drone attacks on Russia’s oil and fuel export infrastructure this month, hitting all three of its major western oil export ports”; ‘US links security guarantees to Ukraine giving up Donbas, Zelenskiy says’ (Reuters); ‘Brazil unveils first supersonic fighter jet assembled in country’ (Reuters); ‘US ramps up fuel exports to Cuba's private sector’ (Reuters); ‘Brazil's Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro in technical tie in run-off simulation, poll shows’ (Reuters); ‘Right-wing candidates Fujimori, Lopez Aliaga top crowded Peru field ahead of presidential vote, poll shows’ (Reuters); In geoeconomics, ‘Japan-Europe container shipping hangs on by a thread’ (Nikkei Asia) - “CMA CGM steps in after ONE scraps direct route in sign of Japanese ports' decline”; ‘Asia Braces for Worst-Case Energy Scenarios as Iran War Drags On’ (BBG); ‘Donald Trump taps Silicon Valley billionaires for policy advice’ (FT) - “Appointments to advisory body deepen ties between tech industry and White House”; ‘Meta and YouTube Lose Landmark Social-Media Addiction Trial’ (WSJ); ‘EU trustbuster deepens ties in California, brushes off Trump demands’ (Politico); ‘Germany’s Merz doubts EU budget will be finalised this year’ (Euractiv); In markets, ‘Markets were not made for Trump’s never-ending ping-pong’ (FT) - “The chaos of the Iran war will have long-term consequences for investors and the dollar”; ‘Iran war could boost China’s ‘petroyuan’ and weaken US dollar dominance, analysts say’ (SCMP); ‘Trump Team Examines What Oil as High as $200 a Barrel Would Mean’ (BBG)

2026, day 69 Good morning from Asia. ‘Donald Trump said the war with Iran would end “very soon”’ (FT) “but indicated to reporters it would not be within the next week”; ‘Trump Advisers Urge Him to Find Iran Exit Ramp, Fearing Political Backlash’ (WSJ) - “The president told reporters on Monday that he thought the war in Iran would be over ‘very soon’”; ‘Trump Warns Iran to Keep Strait of Hormuz Open’ (WSJ); ‘G7 ‘stands ready’ to release emergency oil reserves’ (FT) - “Finance ministers pledge ‘necessary measures’ to tackle surging crude prices with deal expected as soon as Tuesday”; ‘Japan gives order to prepare for release of oil reserves’ (Nikkei Asia); ‘U.S. and Iran Predicted a Very Different War Than the One Now Being Waged’ (WSJ) - “Economic disruption stemming from the conflict is hurting countries worldwide—while providing a windfall to Russia”; ‘Iran bets on endurance, energy disruption to outlast US, Israel’ (Reuters); ‘More attacks on Shaybah oil field despite Saudi warnings to Iran’ (Al Arabiya); ‘Trump's Gaza plan on hold as Iran war pauses disarmament talks, sources say’ (Reuters); ‘Troops Mass as Landlocked Ethiopia Chases Access to the Sea’ (WSJ) - “The threat of civil war is returning, too, after 600,000 died last time”; ‘Gulf attention is turning inward: why the Iran war could destabilise the Horn of Africa’ (The Conversation); ‘Hezbollah preparing for long war, US pours cold water on Lebanon-Israel talks proposal’ (JPost); ‘Syrian president declares support for Lebanon’s effort to disarm Hezbollah’ (Al Arabiya); ‘Aoun accuses Hezbollah of working toward ‘collapse’ of Lebanese state for Iran’s sake’ (Al Arabiya); ‘Top EU officials say no tears shed over fall of Iranian regime, but warn of ‘chaos’ ahead’ (Politico); ‘Von der Leyen shifts EU's global focus to security’ (Euractiv) - “Security should become the 'organising principle' of Europe's foreign policy, says Commission president”; ‘France preparing to escort ships in Strait of Hormuz when war calms: Macron’ (Al Jazeera); In geoeconomics, ‘Why Iranian Regime Change Would Transform Global Energy Markets’ (WSJ) - “One of the largest oil industries in the world has been strangled for years by international sanctions”; ‘Trump reviews options to curb energy prices as Iran strikes roil markets’ (Reuters) - “options include restricting U.S. exports, intervening in oil futures markets, waiving some federal taxes and lifting requirements under a U.S. law called the Jones Act that domestic fuel move only on U.S.-flagged ships, among others”; ‘China’s financial superpower ambitions get legal backing at ‘two sessions’’ (SCMP); ‘Economic Security 101: why China’s officials now have to study rare earths and supply chains’ (SCMP); ‘Japan's Proterial eyes making magnets without heavy rare earths in North America’ (Nikkei Asia) - “Former Hitachi unit targets businesses aiming to lower reliance on China: president”; ‘US reaches agreement to end prosecution of Turkey’s Halkbank’ (FT); In markets, ‘’Unfathomable’: Oil traders left reeling after historic 24 hours’ (AFR); ‘Iran War Is Giving Markets a Covid-Like Shock’ (BBG); ‘Trump sons back launch of new military drone company’ (FT); ‘Anthropic Sues U.S. Defense Department, Pete Hegseth for Targeting the Company’ (WSJ); ‘Canada's banking regulator warns major lenders about lending practices as condo prices crash’ (Reuters); ‘Indonesian fund Danantara chases Prabowo's dreams, but spurs major doubts’ (Nikkei Asia)