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Neoliberalism and social justice. My talk and Q&A at the LSE: youtube.com/watch?v=0HJGsooc…
Nick Cowen retweeted
I think the ‘snooping’ here is irrelevant but doing tax and redistribution through energy bills is developing world banana republic stuff. Squeezing policy agendas through powers never meant to enable them, never authorised by the public. It’s going to end in tears telegraph.co.uk/politics/202…
Nick Cowen retweeted
Stephen Kotkin is one of the great historians of Eurasia. In a new series for Works in Progress, he tackles the biggest question of them all: what went wrong between America and China? In the first part, he explains why we shouldn’t expect China to go the way of the Soviet Union. Beijing’s leaders have internalized the obvious lesson from Moscow: No Gorbachev. But they have also done something subtler: fix the incentives that made Soviet elites think that they had something to gain from ending communism.
worksinprogress.co/issue/sov…
In 1963, an ex-Marine opened a hot-dog stand, by his own admission without knowing how to cook a hot dog.
Decades later Dick Portillo sold the business for around $1bn and bought a 130-foot yacht named… Top Dog.
Ben Johnson (@BCJLondon) reviews 'The Everywhere Millionaire' a book that reveals that the American Dream is alive and well, yet the entrepreneurial and often unglamorous successes it produces are not celebrated by the authors.
theceme.org/book_review/the-…
Nick Cowen retweeted
Extraordinary: Palestine Action’s own lawyer admits in court today the group doesn’t condemn the sledgehammer attack that fractured Sgt Kate Evans’ spine
Nick Cowen retweeted
By late 1984, Bulgarian Communist Party grew increasingly paranoid about the growing population of the ethnic Turkish minority (who made up roughly 8.4% of the country). In December 1984, the regime launched a brutal, systematized assimilation campaign known as the "Revival Process"...
Tens of thousands of Turks and Muslims were forced at gunpoint to exchange their Islamic names for Slavic, Christian-sounding ones. The speaking of Turkish language in public was strictly banned, traditional clothing was outlawed, and mosques were forcibly shut down. When local communities resisted the changes in the winter of 1984–1985, the state deployed the military, resulting in clashes, mass arrests, and casualties.
For nearly five years, the minority population lived under intense surveillance and state terror. By 1989, widespread hunger strikes and massive civil protests broke out among the minority communities. Realizing that the population could not be successfully assimilated, Todor Zhivkov made a dramatic pivot. On May 29, 1989, Zhivkov gave a famous televised address demanding that Turkey open its borders to let "Bulgarian tourists" visit. The regime suddenly loosened passport restrictions and began actively coercing, intimidating, and forcing the Turkish minority out of the country. State propaganda deliberately labeled this sudden mass flight "The Big Excursion," pretending that hundreds of thousands of people were simply taking a spontaneous summer holiday. In reality, families were given mere hours to pack what they could carry into overloaded cars, leaving behind their homes, livestock, and ancestral lands.
The "Big Excursion" was a 1989 state-sponsored mass expulsion in which the Bulgarian communist regime forced over 360,000 ethnic Turks and Muslims across the border into Turkey. Rooted in the violent "Revival Process" of the mid-1980s, which aimed to forcibly assimilate minorities by changing their names and banning Islamic and Turkish culture—the summer exodus was masked by the state as a voluntary three-month vacation. The sudden departure of hundreds of thousands devastated Bulgaria's agricultural workforce, destabilized the government, and culminated in the ousting of dictator Todor Zhivkov just a day after the fall of the Berlin Wall. While officially condemned as ethnic cleansing by the Bulgarian Parliament in 2012, the dark chapter remains heavily debated and largely overlooked in national education.
. . .
In the biting sub-zero dawn of December 24, 1984, the remote mountain village of Benkovski in southern Bulgaria awoke to the rumble of diesel engines and the baying of attack dogs. Armored personnel carriers of the internal security forces cut off the mountain passes, while armed militia in sheepskin coats and officers of the Darzhavna Sigurnost (State Security) surrounded the village square. In the municipal building, clerks laid out pre-printed declaration forms and stacks of freshly minted identity cards. House by house, families were summoned at gunpoint. A municipal official pushed a pen into the trembling hand of the village elder and pointed to a line on the paper. The man’s name was Ahmed; the state decreed that by sunset he would sign a document certifying that he had "voluntarily" cast aside his foreign moniker to become Angel. His wife Fatima was renamed Radka; their son Mustafa was re-registered as Mladen. Across the snowy valleys of the Rhodope Mountains and the rolling plains of the northeast, the People's Republic of Bulgaria had launched the "Revival Process" (Vazroditelen protses)—an administrative crusade to erase nearly one million human identities by executive fiat.
#archaeohistories
Nick Cowen retweeted
🚨 NEW: The Government's "Black Sky" contingency plans for a national water or power blackout
- Around 100 BBC staff would be deployed to run an emergency RM radio studio stocked with enough food, water and fuel to keep it running for 3 days
- The BBC would broadcast pre-written Government scripts through the studio, including how to ration water, what to do if toilets stop working and which food to eat first (see scripts below)
- Radio masts would switch to diesel generators to keep broadcasts going for up to 72 hours without electricity
- BBC teams would use satellite phones to stay in contact, with agreed meeting points and backup arrangements if those phones stop working
- They would also report from emergency centres across the UK using satellite-equipped BBC vehicles to help keep information flowing to the public
- Emergency services would have alternative ways to communicate if mobile phone networks stopped working
- The Government is putting £70m towards aircraft that could restore mobile phone and internet coverage across the UK for over a week
The British government has extended the ban on extreme pornography to include depictions of strangulation/suffocation, and fictional scenarios where adults pretend to be children and/or closely related. In 2015, I write against the original ban: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/…
Nick Cowen retweeted
My latest column for @TheCriticMag is on why oppressing women doesn’t work as a strategy to boost birth rates.
Nick Cowen retweeted
I completely agree economists should do means-ends analysis. See Albrecht (2017).
But take support for a policy. Is that their goals (ends), or really their beliefs about how to achieve a different goal (means-ends connection).
Eg do people like price controls for their own sake, or because they expect affordable groceries?
In her book, Weber treats criticism of Harris’s price-gouging ban and Mamdani’s rent control as failures to defend democratic ends.
My contention is, for the most part, people want affordable-available groceries, and people fail to understand the means ends connection.
Hence we need the opposite of dethroning economics. We have a role for economics to understand that.
It’s an empirical debate.
Nick Cowen retweeted
Britain is good at rigorous and impactful social science research but on big national questions there's often little evidence to guide decisions: effort is over-concentrated on researchers' particular interest/worldview. More from @stianwestlake:
magicsmoke.substack.com/p/ri…
Nick Cowen retweeted
Good to see @TheEconomist saying: “Britain’s ban on some pornography is based on flimsy evidence”
It was a pleasure briefing @SonnyTLoughran on the potential consequences of this law.
He concludes:
“Where someone first sees something does not necessarily tell you why they want to do it. A study in Australia tested several variables to see what might predict whether an individual has a positive perception of choking during sex. Having seen choking in porn had little predictive value. Having previously tried choking or having discussed it with friends was much more likely to predict positive attitudes towards it. Other surveys find that the majority of sexual choking is consensual and pleasurable for those involved. Perhaps young people are choking each other during sex mostly because they like it”.
However, what we didn’t discuss is that an act of choking could amount to an offence of strangulation or suffocation under the Serious Crime Act 2015 (as amended by the Domestic Abuse Act 2021).
The PDEL spending categorisation will become an utter farce. Every public service 'prevents' something else happening in theory. So we're just going to end up reclassifying almost all RDEL as PDEL, in a huge win for policymaking by meme.
Nick Cowen retweeted
Now Russell Brand's been convicted of rape, we need to talk about Sylvie Berki. Because she can't speak for herself.
In 2014, Ms Berki said she'd been assaulted by Russell Brand.
But if she talks about it, even now, she risks jail.
Nick Cowen retweeted
The Thirty Glorious Years are overstated. A great deal of the growth in that period are an artifice tied to national accounts. As women entered the labor, non-market output became market/measured output. All of it was deemed a net gain. There was a gain but it was not as big. If you look at satellite accounts of GDP that account for household sectors, you find 0.2 percentage points fewer in growth.
Moreover, in work with Chandler Reilly, I show that the way that government is counted in total output is bound to overestimate growth (some Zvi Griliches was implicitly pointing out in thw 1990s).
But even with this, growth is fast. What my comments show is that growth is not exceptionally fast (compared say to 1870-1910)
notesonliberty.com/2017/02/0…
On Monday, I moved on to covering the “thirty glorious years” of post-1945 economic growth in my Global Economic History course:
sas.upenn.edu/~jesusfv/GEH_1…
This was a welcome relief. The middle of the semester, which covers 1914–1945 and the economic histories of socialism and fascism, always takes a toll on me. While many of the topics are fascinating, talking about war, dictatorships, and economic depressions always leaves me (and, I suspect, my students) somewhat distressed. Who can enjoy describing Generalplan Ost?
The “thirty glorious years,” instead, are a happier tale. At least in Western Europe, they were decades of fast economic growth, (mostly) democratic institutions, and shared prosperity. They also saw the start of the European integration process, a remarkable common effort to reorganize Europe from a different perspective than the Great Power competition of previous generations.
It will not surprise many of my readers if I admit that my treatment of Konrad Adenauer, Alcide De Gasperi, Robert Schuman, and Charles de Gaulle may be overly generous. While Adenauer, Schuman, and de Gaulle are well known, De Gasperi is perhaps not known enough outside Italy.
As I see what I am afraid is the deep decadence of Western Europe right now (sorry, I don’t want to mince words), I wonder where today’s Adenauers and De Gasperis are. The 1945 template of reconstruction is outdated, and the world has changed. But I am pretty sure that if Adenauer, De Gasperi, Schuman, and de Gaulle were alive today, they would share my concerns and would be thinking carefully about where we want to see Europe in 2050.
I love teaching economic history because I believe it has something to tell us about our current challenges.
P.S. If you have seen this slide deck before, this year I added quite a bit of material on France and Japan. The slide deck is long, so it takes a few seconds to upload.
You can only lower (real) costs by increasing supply. You can shift costs around (e.g. get government to pay more of some people's bills). But the additional government spending then feeds inflation and debt.
Bank Report today in two sentences:
Growth has been lowered by unaffordability, which reduces spending. And they’re worried about inflation.
That’s why we’re directly lowering energy bills. More spending, lower inflation, higher growth.
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Nick Cowen retweeted
I had a great time talking about one of my favorite books, Gulliver's Travels, on its 300th anniversary with my @mercatus colleague Henry Oliver for his Common Reader Substack and podcast.
youtu.be/xJICd5lOHXw?is=O7cA…
Nick Cowen retweeted
How can we make lovable cities? If you had asked a European architect this question in 1900, they would probably have referred you to a slender, lively book by the Austrian writer Camillo Sitte, translated as ‘The Art of Building Cities’. Published in 1889, ‘The Art of Building Cities’ swiftly came to be revered around the world.
worksinprogress.co/issue/the…
Sitte was repudiated by the modernists and fell into obscurity, but his ideas are beginning to be revived. My cousin @PMArslanagic and I have distilled nineteenth century's finest work on urbanism into five principles:
- Create enclosed spaces
- Keep squares small
- Symmetry is overrated
- Move monuments to the edges of spaces
- Nestle monuments in vernacular fabric
Nick Cowen retweeted
Because my wife and I welcomed a third little human being into the world last week, I had to cancel my lectures. Being pressed for time before the semester's end, I had to upload a unit online. I decided to share the video of this recorded lecture. Its my economic history lecture on health and development.
See link below:
youtu.be/7qQa8wqT-t4
Nick Cowen retweeted
I asked @HelenMiller_IFS of @TheIFS if the Budget did anything to improve our tax system. Her answer? No.
She then laid out to the Treasury Committee why the Government’s new Founder’s Relief is such a dreadful way to support entrepreneurship:
🎯It fails to help start-ups or people trying to get a business off the ground. Instead, it hands an average £500k tax break to people who have already made it.
↪️It sets up perverse incentives - pushing founders to sell up quickly just to bag the relief rather than building long-term, mature, productive businesses.
Watch here👇




































