If the Ohio Valley Conference’s near-death experience taught us anything, it should be this: nothing is for certain until it’s for certain. But Le Moyne’s exit is looking pretty doggone certain. It’s been rumored for weeks that Le Moyne would be proceeding to the Metro in the near future, although the curious part about the news is that as of now the Dolphins are going it alone. Matt Brown of Extra Points had previously reported that Stonehill was going to be in the mix as well, and you can trust Extra Points as much, if not more, than any other source out there. It is probably a bit premature to say Stonehill is going, too, but it doesn’t feel out of the realm of certainty. Brown actually tweeted this morning that he did not think the Metro was done making realignment moves. Which leads us to the possibility of a 7 team NEC. Strictly by my understanding: This would be exactly enough to maintain a basketball autobid if there are no further departures. New Haven and Mercyhurst would have to become full members within a two year grace period as well. This is all doable. The Football league would go down to 8 members if Stonehill is indeed also departing, which makes scheduling more difficult than it necessarily has to be with an independent Merrimack out there willing to accept an invite back into the fold. In football, if you want 8 conference games- and you do, minimum- the question is basically if you’d rather let Stonehill stay or invite Merrimack back. Neither is appealing, but survival isn’t always easy. It isn’t necessarily as easy as inviting up a Division II school, either. Unfortunately there are less and less schools available with the desire to reclassify within the footprint as well as the means to do it. IN the past, I’ve spoken with schools like Bentley who have been tremendously successful at the D2 level- and they’ve told me that they want to stay right there, where they’ve had those wins. More pressingly, there’s a moratorium at this time on D2 schools joining up with a D1 conference, although that may expire well before the end of a grace period and at that point the question is more along the lines of if they’d count towards any sort of limit if they’re still transitioning. I don’t think this is necessarily “the end of the NEC” although I expect it to be spun that way. There are probably moves out of this and I certainly hope there has been preparation for this moment for some time. But right now you’ve got to circle the wagons and find a way to keep members together, because stability in college conferences these days is found in numbers, and if anyone else is looking for more members you’ve got to make the case that the NEC is the best place to be. I think that can be done just in terms of athletic success. It’s rare for a school like Robert Morris to make the tourney after leaving the league. But if stability is everything, all eyes are on the lifeboats, and the question of just how many there are.