Trading High Potential Stocks Using Stage Analysis Premium Newsletter: https://teapaw.org/t.co/J4ecbi4iKo https://teapaw.org/t.co/SvGfrZNKmG https://teapaw.org/t.co/2yxPgXh10N
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The holy grail of trading isn't an indicator or method but simply finding ways to tilt odds in your favor.
Stan Weinstein's Forest To The Trees Approach is a repeatable method of finding good times to buy stocks with better odds of success.
This weeks newsletter will have more short setups, and for any new members the Shorting Guide is an educational document to study along with the Timing Model and Correction Playbook
$WKHS this was a stock I traded in 2020 as it was part of the hot EV theme.
Look how far down Stage 4 can go 🤣🤣
Have to use a logarithmic chart just to appreciate it.
A lot of people benefit when asset prices get crushed.
Young people especially as they have the time to compound off of big bottoms.
Only those who have no idea what they are doing but are flush with assets lose when the market goes down.
If you know how to trade its a mega opportunity, but you have to let it get down to the buy point first.
That first quarter of 2022 was really where many of these 2020-2021 leaders totally imploded.
Some of these stocks are already in Stage 4 by then, but many finally moved into Stage 4 for good in December 2021 and then were crushed like $FVRR below.
With semis the bull leader of 2023-2026 moving into Stage 4 now, the next quarter probably isn't going to be pretty.
This is the key thing to understand. Once these stocks enter Stage 4, many of them are NEVER coming back.
You're not getting a "deal" on a stock that never comes back, you're permanently destroying your capital.
Major bull markets do this over and over, they are led by new actors, and then once the stock goes into Stage 4 its over.
The problem with AI wizard fundamentalists is many of these AI stocks that are moving into Stage 4 are never coming back.
$PTON was a 2020-2021 leader, where's it been this cycle?
Probing the bottom the whole time doing nothing.
These AI stocks that are so great right now will be dead money sometime in the future and the fundamentalists who rode them all the way down will finally capitulate and be out.
Plenty of the AI fundamentalist heroes will now become villains, especially if they bag hold their AI stocks all the way down in Stage 4.
Because they have to defend their theories and prove they are right and the market is wrong, their tendency to go from hero to villain is strong, driven by their ego.
Some big gains showing up in our shorts for members.
Remember to lock in some profit on the big moves up.
This week's newsletter has quite a few short setups.
$SOXS is our big winner from Issue #202, any members in that one still are up over 50% in two weeks.
The reason my newsletter has a Timing Model is we wait for certain things to appear to get interested again on the long side.
It's based on Stan Weinstein's Forest To The Trees Approach along with some additional criteria that tends to show up in the market when true tradeable bottoms form.
The Correction Playbook that we have is the deep study of 46 years of stock market history to show how these correction bottoms are where you make money on the long side and are the best times to get in.
Until the conditions show up again we simply wait in cash, or continue to short the market if you're more aggressive.
If you're a person that's looking to get a more systematic approach to the market the system in my newsletter is super simple to understand, and its backed by Stage Analysis which is the best trading system ever invented.
Given the market backdrop and the Binance news if we get a crypto flash crash here I wouldn't be suprised
At the start of a Stage 4 decline, people are eager to buy the dip, and to them its a justification they believe in the story.
But if the decline lasts long enough its all fear and despair at the bottom.
That's why you don't mess with Stage 4 on the long side.
$AAPL very ironic they are chastised for not doing anything with AI, yet making new highs while all the AI stocks are no longer doing that.
$AMZN if this stock breaks down into Stage 4 after earnings 2 out the 5 largest stocks in the stock market will be in Stage 4
$CIBR confirming the high volume reversal from a few weeks ago with more high volume selling this week
$PURR in bullish markets you get sympathy across the sector from bull moves
What you’re seeing today is not sympathy in the Hyperliquid move
Overtrading is a problem all traders need to deal with
One of the hardest lessons I've learned in over 20 years of trading:
You must be willing to stay out of the market for weeks or even months.
Look at this chart of the Nasdaq since 2019. Notice how often the market goes through sideways periods, choppy uptrends, corrections, and bear markets.
As a swing or position trader, I don't want to participate in all of them.
I want to be aggressive when the market is strong and opportunities are plentiful. But when conditions deteriorate, I become extremely selective, stop opening new positions, and let my individual sell rules determine when to exit existing holdings.
Why is this so difficult?
Because there are ALWAYS stocks moving higher. Even in terrible markets.
You see those stocks, feel you're missing opportunities, and convince yourself that you need to keep trading to make money.
I've experienced this myself. In 2026, I made very good profits in April and May, but gave back some of those gains during the choppier months that followed.
The reality is that the general market is a huge part of your trading edge. Even the best setups become much harder to trade when conditions are unfavorable.
I believe one of the biggest changes you can make is to stop defining yourself as a trader by how often you trade.
A disciplined trader doesn't need constant action. A disciplined trader waits until the probabilities are in their favor.
The ability to sit in cash for weeks or months is what separates disciplined traders from those who constantly struggle.
You don't get paid for being active. You get paid for making good decisions.
