@ngreenberg

Former sportswriter and stats geek (not nerd) for @washingtonpost. I got science for any occasion. Postulating theorems, formulating equations.

fancystats.substack.com/
Joined May 2008
  • Tweets173K
  • Following416
  • Followers18.9K
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Hot Seat, Cold Math: Which NFL coaches are in trouble after Week 2? The probability every NFL head coach will be replaced before next season. Commanders Dan Quinn is not as high as you would think. At least not yet. fancystats.substack.com/p/ho…
🤖 Made with AI
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Connor McDavid is not human. He is a hockey AI cyborg whose programming was updated this offseason.
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Neil Greenberg retweeted
Mike Petriello@mike_petriello4h
In what is likely to be the very first all-indoor World Series, and at two parks that have had some notable roof controversies, I am very glad to see @AdamMcCalvy & @adamdberry teamed up to explain the most important x-factor of the 2026 World Series: mlb.com/news/ground-rules-fo…

Meet the true X-factors in this World Series: The roofs

MILWAUKEE – Look up during the World Series and you’ll see the roofs at American Family Field and Tropicana Field. There’s a chance this could be the first World Series played entirely indoors. And...

mlb.com
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Neil Greenberg retweeted
Mike Petriello@mike_petriello4h
The World Series starts today. The AL's best team vs the NL's best team. Two fanbases that have never won before. The style of play everyone claims they are desperate to see. This is going to rock.
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Neil Greenberg retweeted
Sid 🇨🇦@NHL_Sid14h
The Oilers have scored 46 goals this season. Connor McDavid has been on-ice for 37 (80%) of them. Just insane.
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He explained the timing of bringing in Steve Wilks to help with defensive game planning. You’ll have to listen to hear what he said about getting similar help for the offense. (That’s a tease)
Steak/Sauna/Parlay/Draft King
@EBJunkies5h
Adam Peters up next!!! #Commanders
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Neil Greenberg retweeted
Kevin Cole
@KevinCole___Oct 22
I love this visual for how coaches think about uncertainty
Brian Burke@bburkeESPNOct 22
With all the talk about Kyle Shanahan's 51% comment, I want to take some time to walk through why a lot of the discussion yesterday was off the mark. I'm going to focus on just one of the points made--uncertainty. Thread:
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MLB
@MLBOct 22
Jacob Misiorowski was asked what Pokémon energy he was bringing to #WorldSeries Game 1: "Definitely the flame energy. What's Charizard's signature move? Fireball. Bring some fireball. I'm going to be ready."
On the left side on the graphic, blue text reads “Milwaukee Brewers” in blue font against a beige background. The rest of the graphic has a dark blue background. A large heading reads “Miz” with a subheading, “Gotta strike ‘em all out!” There is a large cutout of Jacob Misiorowski pumping his fist and yelling in excitement. He wears a cream-colored Brewers uniform and blue cap.

ALT On the left side on the graphic, blue text reads “Milwaukee Brewers” in blue font against a beige background. The rest of the graphic has a dark blue background. A large heading reads “Miz” with a subheading, “Gotta strike ‘em all out!” There is a large cutout of Jacob Misiorowski pumping his fist and yelling in excitement. He wears a cream-colored Brewers uniform and blue cap.

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Neil Greenberg retweeted
Brian Burke@bburkeESPNOct 22
With all the talk about Kyle Shanahan's 51% comment, I want to take some time to walk through why a lot of the discussion yesterday was off the mark. I'm going to focus on just one of the points made--uncertainty. Thread:
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Now this has to be a thing until they lose.
Zach Leonsis
@ZacharyLeonsisOct 21
Replying to @TedLeonsis
@TedLeonsis c’mon man. One of us is going to have to change now! GO Wizards.
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Neil Greenberg retweeted
Tangotiger 🍁@tangotigerOct 21
This cant possibly be true And I suspect Mr Roebber would not appreciate this conclusion attributed to him I say this without having seen this paper in question If "momentum" is not followed by "shmomentum", Id be highly skeptical of any claim
Scott Wachenheim@CoachSWachOct 21
Replying to @CockyAF_803
A research team at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee led by Paul Roebber used machine learning and 10 years of NFL data to show that momentum significantly increases a team's win probability across a series of possession changes,
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Neil Greenberg retweeted
Adam
@WalrusQuantOct 21
most sports stats aren't bell curves. player points, threes made and mlb runs all have long right tails, so the average sits above the typical game. 56% of nba player games finish under the mean.
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Neil Greenberg retweeted
HockeyStatCards
@hockeystatcardsOct 21
NHL Game Score Impact Card for Washington Capitals on 2026-10-20:
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Neil Greenberg retweeted
Jessica Huseman@JessicaHusemanOct 20
FOLKS. It is NOT TOO LATE to sign up for @VotebeatUS's expert desk. We have 125 experts on elections waiting to talk to journalists on the record and IT IS FREE. Take our sources. Use them in your reporting. No credit necessary.
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How Dan Quinn operates on the field is fair game for criticism but man has he had some significant injuries to deal with during his tenure. Tough to give him a fair evaluation.
JP Finlay
@JPFinlayNBCSOct 20
Terry McLaurin has a torn patellar tendon and is out for the year
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Neil Greenberg retweeted
Mike Petriello@mike_petrielloOct 20
Top team in the AL vs top team in the NL is excessively cool, and is somewhat rare in baseball history. Throw in a fanbase guaranteed to have their first win ever, and TB starting 2 ex-MIL SP, and the World Series is going to be kind of a real blast. mlb.com/news/mlb-world-serie…

No. 1 vs. No. 1: World Series matchups between each league’s top seed

This year's Brewers-Rays World Series matchup is not only a meeting between franchises that have never won a World Series title. It's also a matchup between the No. 1 team in each league. And that's...

mlb.com
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Neil Greenberg retweeted
Lindsay Rhodes
@lindsay_rhodesOct 20
Friendly reminder that analytics is just an organized way to track the experiential knowledge football people have in their "gut". "I've seen this a thousand times. Here's what we should do." Analytics is the process of ACTUALLY looking at the 1000 times being referenced & providing information about what actually happened, and how it impacted what happened next. No one in analytics is saying coaches shouldn't incorporate new and specific-to-the-situation information... just here is what history tells us.
Lindsay Rhodes
@lindsay_rhodesOct 20
"I think analytics is a good way to lose your job as a head coach." That's what Aikman just said.
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Hot take? Commanders making the NFC championship game in Year 1 of new regime was the worst thing to happen to them.
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Neil Greenberg retweeted
Josh Dubow
@JoshDubowAPOct 20
49ers beat Commanders and the NFC East will go winless in back-to-back weeks. This is first time every team in a division played in consecutive weeks and none of them won
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It was nice to see Commanders respond in the second half last night but let's not pretend they were competitive even though the score suggests they might have been. Daniels QBR was 44.6, meaning his performance was good enough to guide an average team to 7-10/8-9 record.
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If Dan Quinn is fired mid season who takes over? Anthony Lynn?
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