nic.aqs

Context matters when looking at horizontal levels.

In case it isn't obvious enough, this is not something you see in a risk-on environment.

So smart money distributed small caps, metals, big tech, and now energy. When smart money moves, it leaves footprints. That's the whole point of technical analysis. Ignoring them is a choice. Charts: $NVDA $XLE

The reason why I'm so critical of cheerleading accounts is because I WAS one of them. Looking back, I am truly ashamed of these posts, which provided nothing of value but hype in a Stage 2 uptrend. BUT I'd be more ashamed if I hadn't learned from my mistakes. To my day ones, I truly don't know how you tolerated me back then, and still stayed with me today. I'm grateful for every one of you. I will continue to provide objective analysis that you may find actionable. I'm not here to feed your biases.

Not every stock recovers after a downtrend is a fact. Yet most people are still oblivious to it, in my opinion. Yes, the market always recovers eventually, but your stocks, especially pre-revenue, speculative ones, don't necessarily have to. The indices rise over time because they swap out weaker companies for stronger ones. Not by diamond handing.

$OPEN $1.40. 🎯 This is what I mean by a "kick-the-can-down-the-road" analysis. There will always be support levels lower. The risk of holding stocks in a Stage 4 downtrend is that you never know when the bleeding will stop, how much the stock needs to rally just to break even, or if it will ever recover. Next support at $0.50.

$IREN at $21 in August 2025 is different from $IREN at $21 in November 2026. Same stock. Same price. Different cycles. Once you start viewing charts through the lens of market cycles, you'll understand why it sometimes feels like you're swimming against the tide.

Now after leaving the beach, will you stay at a beach house to see if the tsunami reaches you, or will you get as far away as you can? Personally, I'd get the hell away. After sitting out most of the AI stock dump, I'm out of crypto stocks as well. Maybe the Stage 4 decline of AI stocks won't impact crypto, or maybe it will. Either way, I'll leave it to those who choose to stay to find out. I won't be a hero.

They say you're either a great trader or a great subscription seller. That statement got into my head. I lowkey agree, which is why I've paused new signups. I don't know what I was trying to prove, but I guess I'm proving something. Now I kinda like the exclusivity of it. Perhaps I'll change my mind in the future. Anyways, here's every single options trade called out in our group since inception. Total trades: 37 Win rate: 67.57% (25W - 12L) Average win: 62.34% Average loss: -24.47% Risk-reward ratio: 2.55

2021-2022: $DXY broke out of a Stage 1 base into a Stage 2 uptrend. 2025-2026: $DXY formed a Stage 1 base and may transition into a Stage 2 uptrend. This is yet another similarity to 2021.

Case study: $DXY Which stage is it in?

So what happens if or when $AAPL gives up?

Solid week in our group! Every options trade called out this week: $XLE 12/18 69p 2.68 -> 7.23 (+169.78%) $AAPL 11/6 340/330p 3.50 -> 8.13 (+132.29%) $SPY 11/6 767p 3.55 -> 4.60 (+29.58%) (would be generational if I held to Thursday)

Not a strong close.

Pretty good week for me, considering we just experienced $QQQ's worst single-day percentage drop since 2020 on Thursday.

Bounces in a downtrend.

For those who are playing the bounce in a downtrend. 👇

$QQQ Just a reflexive bounce off oversold condition and a rare 69% $VIX day, in my opinion. Still plenty of work to do to repair its technicals.

Here's where I stand. -> I think semis need more time to consolidate. -> Tech is heavily tied to semis. -> Crypto may be dragged by tech.

You're telling me it’s just a coincidence that smart money is distributing these one after another? And Big Tech/AI stocks will somehow skip the markdown phase just because the AI buildout has to keep going?