NFA - posting thoughts, ideas and TA setups for my own development
London, England
Joined October 2013
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Wouldn’t surprise me if BTC and ETH bounces into the CME open followed by a dump.
Potential short/rejection zones if happens:
BTC 81,400-81,600
ETH 2,380-2,400
Risk is that it just continues lower…
With FOMC next week (Warsh likely to be hawkish, but won’t out-hawk the market) and mid terms around the corner - I don’t see a reason for risk to be deployed into crypto. Add re-escalation fears, elevated energy prices, and growth fears to that equation.
Still holds👇
As said before, I'm leaning short through October and most of Q4… Impressive how BTC is “shrugging off” the equity selloff... until it remembers it's a risk asset and joins the party!
ETH and BTC dominance up. Everything else basically down. Almost every ALT retraced its weekend pump and now back to Friday levels. Same old. Next leg lower will be brutal. I think mid 70s for BTC and possibly sub 2k for ETH.
$SUI (4h): I can totally see SUI retracing down to 0.80, as it has done before. Price has broken down out of the range and lost the 1.08 level, which it is now retesting from underneath. It is also sitting right on the 38.2% fib (1.057) of the September rally, so a rejection here would keep the bearish case in play. There’s a case for sub-0.60 as well, but we play it level by level.
$SUI (1h, intraday): A closer look at how SUI has behaved this week. Price opened very close to the weekly high, then retraced sharply to set a new weekly low on Tuesday, and since then it hasn't managed to take out either the high or the low for the remainder of the week. Notably, since that initial drop, price hasn't been able to reclaim the 50% retracement of the move, suggesting a lack of strength. This raises the possibility of another leg lower before the next phase higher begins. Price action overall has been choppy and relatively poor, making leverage participation risky here. Let's see how next week behaves.
Wow. Just as I posted this SUI made a move > 50% but rejected on the weekly open. So, the range was pretty much defined already. Let's see if it breaks out (either way) next week.
$SUI
Wouldn’t rule out a retracement into the 1.11–1.06 zone. There’s a fairly compelling cluster of technical support in that area: 4H 50 EMA, the 61.8% fib, and a broader horizontal support zone stretching back to Feb — all converging around similar levels. A pullback into that zone would still look fairly constructive to me. A close below 1.00, though, and I’m starting to shake in my boots.
$BTC is currently testing weekly resistance. A weekly close above $87k would open the path toward $93.4k. Conversely, a close below $83k — signaling a deviation back into the prior range — could see price retest the $76k–$69k zone, where a higher low is likely to form.
Given Cowen's recent capitulation on his bull thesis, a sweep of the lows here would make him look prescient.
Decent amount of gamma hedging in the market today as Sept futures rolls off. Treat these moves with a pinch of salt.