Institutional Investor, Market-Maker/Floor Trader, 20+ years. Founder of Chicago Options Market-Making, Prop and HFT firms at the CBOE & CME | Board Member
Utah/Chicago/Tahoe/|No Advice
Joined July 2020
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Pinned Tweet
A short video where I discuss Variance futures with the @Cboe Link: cboe.com/tradable-products/s…
Noel Smith retweeted
Put the word out - @OptionsAction is back up!
LIVE on @CNBC Dot-Com 🌐 Wed. 130-2PM CT
ft @Michael_Khouw & @spotgamma
Trades, Strategy, Structure, Q&A
Noel Smith retweeted
ICYMI - Here are both segments from todays @CNBC appearances on @CNBCTheExchange reacting to the Fed's moves. Part one here, part two below.
FOMC: hold 3.75-4.00%, 10-2 (Cook, Hammack wanted +25)
- 2y -7bp to 4.70% during Warsh presser; 10y -2bp, 30y +1bp. Front-end steepener
- From 2027 one of 8 meetings is strategy-only, no vote
- Warsh: FCI not broadly tight, inflation swaps going the right way, no clear Dec signal
- FedWatch Dec hike still ~85%
- SPX +13, VIX 17.2, gold +$22
Event vol draining. Dec is the risk now.
Noel Smith retweeted
Warsh: The Fed will have 8 meetings as scheduled in 2027, but one won't have a vote on monetary policy settings and instead focus on strategy. In 2028, two of the 8 meetings will be devoted to policy strategy. Those meetings won't be "live."
Noel Smith retweeted
The countdown is on! We'll be live from 2:30 PM ET
Click that link!
cnbc.com/2026/10/28/alphabet…
Noel Smith retweeted
Fed statement redline:
Adds: "The accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation".
Keeps: "The Committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system."
Keeps: "Inflation remains elevated."
Fed Pauses Rate-Hikes As Expected; 2 Dissents Signal Less Hawkish 'Family Fight' zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-4…
Noel Smith retweeted
GOING LIVE in just a few minutes on @CNBC. We’ll be setting the table for Fed Chair Warsh’s remarks and the market’s next read on policy.
Looking forward to the conversation with @steveliesman, @SullyCNBC and @KellyCNBC.
Noel Smith retweeted
BREAKING: Google unveils Gemini 4 Carbon, its most powerful AI model yet, surpassing Claude Opus 5.5 & GPT-6 Astra on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index.
Noel Smith retweeted
will the catalysts catalyze?
If you buy a one week straddle on the SPX this morning, you pay 1.6%, 14.1 vol. You get a truckload of earnings (27% of the market cap reports today and tmrw alone), an FOMC meeting, the midterms. Throw in core PCE, GDP, ISM and the Employment Cost Index for good measure. Who said we had an affordability crisis?
Since 2024, the probability of the SPX moving more than 1.6% over a one week period is 35%... basically the same for starting in 2023 and 2025...go back to 2022 and (unsurprisingly) it's 42%.
Noel Smith retweeted
WATCH LIVE TODAY: Press conference with #FOMC Chairman Warsh at 2:30 p.m. ET: federalreserve.gov/
youtube.com/federalreserve
ALT This graphic announces an upcoming Federal Open Market Committee press conference. The image features the Federal Reserve headquarters building (Eccles Building) with its distinctive white marble facade and classical columns, set against a deep blue sky. Text at the top states "Watch live October 28 at 2:30 p.m. ET" in dark blue font. The bottom portion displays a dark blue banner containing the Federal Reserve System seal on the left side, with text reading "FOMC PRESS CONFERENCE" and "Alternate player: https://www.youtube.com/FederalReserve/" in white font on the right.
