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Joined November 2025
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With $BE they are bringing in more revenue than ever but growing is now eating into their cash and right now the market seems to want cash more than growth.
Why? Well a lot of Bloom鈥檚 customers are AI companies that are borrowing more to build and in the higher rate environment that money is getting harder to get. If it keeps getting harder Bloom could end up waiting longer to get paid.
AI spending being ahead of revenue is well known. But right now that worry is hitting AI stocks in general and Bloom is caught up in it.
$BE post from yesterday
So many are wondering what鈥檚 going on with $BE after such a great quarter. Bloom hasn鈥檛 been paid for a lot of what they sold yet and permits are now slowing down some of their projects.
Bloom made $250M of profit in Q3 but their operating cash flow was negative $27M. In the 10-Q you can see a lot of that comes from $464M of Q3 revenue they haven鈥檛 been able to bill yet. They only get to bill once a project reaches certain stages or the customer signs off on it.
Q1 and Q2 were both positive so operating cash flow is still $273M for the year. Bloom鈥檚 CFO said they don鈥檛 expect Q3鈥檚 negative cash flow to keep going.
But that depends on projects staying on schedule. Bloom has paid suppliers $337M in advance this year and if projects get pushed back they could end up with more inventory than they need and less cash.
They say permits are now delaying some of their projects. They usually can鈥檛 sell the systems to the investors paying for a project until it has its permits so a delay can mean Bloom gets paid later.
Their biggest project is the $ORCL data center in New Mexico and it still doesn鈥檛 have its air permit. The permit hearing isn鈥檛 until December 7 and an October 26 hearing will look at whether to throw out the application.
Not Another Quant retweeted
So many are wondering what鈥檚 going on with $BE after such a great quarter. Bloom hasn鈥檛 been paid for a lot of what they sold yet and permits are now slowing down some of their projects.
Bloom made $250M of profit in Q3 but their operating cash flow was negative $27M. In the 10-Q you can see a lot of that comes from $464M of Q3 revenue they haven鈥檛 been able to bill yet. They only get to bill once a project reaches certain stages or the customer signs off on it.
Q1 and Q2 were both positive so operating cash flow is still $273M for the year. Bloom鈥檚 CFO said they don鈥檛 expect Q3鈥檚 negative cash flow to keep going.
But that depends on projects staying on schedule. Bloom has paid suppliers $337M in advance this year and if projects get pushed back they could end up with more inventory than they need and less cash.
They say permits are now delaying some of their projects. They usually can鈥檛 sell the systems to the investors paying for a project until it has its permits so a delay can mean Bloom gets paid later.
Their biggest project is the $ORCL data center in New Mexico and it still doesn鈥檛 have its air permit. The permit hearing isn鈥檛 until December 7 and an October 26 hearing will look at whether to throw out the application.
Gold is back in a tricky spot near the summer lows.
Oil is back up with these attacks on Saudi Arabia. This is putting continued pressure on inflation and it is keeping rate hike odds in December high.
This AI stock selloff has people moving into bonds instead of gold. US10Y had its biggest one day drop in over two years and that should have helped gold but it kept going down.
This could be gold investors selling gold for cash to cover any positions that got hit in this AI tech selloff.
Not Another Quant retweeted
The yen continues to strengthen with inflation numbers coming in above BoJ target. The BoJ has been saying it鈥檚 worried about waiting too long to hike. The issue is hiking enough before inflation gets stuck above 2%.
And now with headline and core both above 2% I think a December hike is more likely.
Global stocks also sold off today and that helps the yen. People buy the yen as a safe haven when stocks drop and some close out carry trades which means buying the yen back.
US yields also dropped today because money moved into US Treasuries. People hold dollars over yen because US rates pay more and when US yields drop that extra pay gets smaller.
It looks like the carry trade is fairly calm for now. Yen short positions are a lot smaller than they were in July after most of them were closed out in August and September.
Not Another Quant retweeted
The new $SPCX 10-Q shows one customer SpaceX doesn鈥檛 name made up 1/3 of their revenue in Q3. That鈥檚 about $5.0B and it鈥檚 2/3 of their AI revenue.
In Q2 the same customer was about $1.5B so it more than tripled in one quarter.
It looks like it could be Anthropic. Reuters reported Anthropic鈥檚 contracts with SpaceX are worth up to $84.5B into 2029 which is nearly double the original deal.
We don鈥檛 have that confirmed but if Anthropic files publicly soon then the S1 should show their SpaceX contracts.
The new $SPCX 10-Q shows one customer SpaceX doesn鈥檛 name made up 1/3 of their revenue in Q3. That鈥檚 about $5.0B and it鈥檚 2/3 of their AI revenue.
In Q2 the same customer was about $1.5B so it more than tripled in one quarter.
It looks like it could be Anthropic. Reuters reported Anthropic鈥檚 contracts with SpaceX are worth up to $84.5B into 2029 which is nearly double the original deal.
We don鈥檛 have that confirmed but if Anthropic files publicly soon then the S1 should show their SpaceX contracts.
The yen continues to strengthen with inflation numbers coming in above BoJ target. The BoJ has been saying it鈥檚 worried about waiting too long to hike. The issue is hiking enough before inflation gets stuck above 2%.
And now with headline and core both above 2% I think a December hike is more likely.
Global stocks also sold off today and that helps the yen. People buy the yen as a safe haven when stocks drop and some close out carry trades which means buying the yen back.
US yields also dropped today because money moved into US Treasuries. People hold dollars over yen because US rates pay more and when US yields drop that extra pay gets smaller.
It looks like the carry trade is fairly calm for now. Yen short positions are a lot smaller than they were in July after most of them were closed out in August and September.
Not Another Quant retweeted
Yields keep moving with AI stocks. When AI sells off people run to bonds and yields drop and when AI bounces yields go back up.
The market is asking if all the money going into AI will pay off. It鈥檚 most worried about companies borrowing to pay for it. About 40% of US growth is coming from AI spending so yields falling seems to show the market is starting to question that growth.
Those growth concerns would feed the recession risk. When people start losing their jobs that鈥檚 when the music stops.
But so far the job market is ok. Layoffs are still low but hiring looks like it could be starting to slow down.
Yields aren鈥檛 falling because inflation is cooling. We need this war to end to send oil down which will help cool headline inflation.
Core still seems sticky and the longer oil stays high the more it risks spreading into other prices. If it pushes wages up that could keep inflation from coming down but so far wage growth is slowing.
I don鈥檛 think many doubt AI pays off eventually. We鈥檙e being promised trillions in AI revenue and it鈥檚 growing fast. But the spending comes first and the revenue comes later. The wait in between is where things could get uncomfortable especially for companies that borrowed heavily.
So many are wondering what鈥檚 going on with $BE after such a great quarter. Bloom hasn鈥檛 been paid for a lot of what they sold yet and permits are now slowing down some of their projects.
Bloom made $250M of profit in Q3 but their operating cash flow was negative $27M. In the 10-Q you can see a lot of that comes from $464M of Q3 revenue they haven鈥檛 been able to bill yet. They only get to bill once a project reaches certain stages or the customer signs off on it.
Q1 and Q2 were both positive so operating cash flow is still $273M for the year. Bloom鈥檚 CFO said they don鈥檛 expect Q3鈥檚 negative cash flow to keep going.
But that depends on projects staying on schedule. Bloom has paid suppliers $337M in advance this year and if projects get pushed back they could end up with more inventory than they need and less cash.
They say permits are now delaying some of their projects. They usually can鈥檛 sell the systems to the investors paying for a project until it has its permits so a delay can mean Bloom gets paid later.
Their biggest project is the $ORCL data center in New Mexico and it still doesn鈥檛 have its air permit. The permit hearing isn鈥檛 until December 7 and an October 26 hearing will look at whether to throw out the application.
Not Another Quant retweeted
The yen is gaining on USD because US yields have come down and the Fed is expected to hold rates next week.
Japan鈥檚 inflation is around the BoJ鈥檚 2% target but rates are only 1.25% so borrowing is still cheap. With a weak yen and high oil pushing prices up the BoJ wants to keep hiking before inflation goes past 2%. The market continues to price in a December hike.
Bessent has been pushing the BoJ to hike since the summer because higher rates in Japan support the yen without Japan having to sell US Treasuries to do it.
But the market thinks the Fed will hike in December as well so the difference between US and Japanese rates may not change much.
Japan鈥檚 inflation numbers come out tonight and a higher than expected number would make a BoJ hike in December even more likely.
Not Another Quant retweeted
$META is doing almost the same thing $GOOGL did in 2014. Google gave shareholders a non voting Class C share for each share they owned so Page and Brin could keep control while Google kept issuing stock.
The Class C shares traded lower than the voting ones and Google ended up paying $522 million to make up for it.
The big difference is Meta wants to use these shares to help raise the hundreds of billions they say they need for AI. Google mostly used theirs to pay employees and buy companies.
And it is also for Zuckerberg. If California passes its billionaire tax next month he can sell some of his new shares to pay it without giving up votes.
$META is creating a new kind of share with no voting rights. Every shareholder will get one for each share they own. It鈥檚 a stock dividend but it works like a 2 for 1 stock split.
Zuckerberg holds most of the voting power. Since the new shares don鈥檛 come with votes Meta can sell them to pay for AI and he keeps control.
Zuckerberg will get the new shares as well. He can sell 20% of them without losing voting power. With the other 80% he gives up some voting power for every one he sells.
That rule goes away over 8 years if he stays full time on Meta鈥檚 executive team or as executive chair.
Not Another Quant retweeted
Layoffs are still really low but hiring looks like it鈥檚 slowing down.
US jobless claims fell to 194K last week which is the lowest since July. But ADP鈥檚 weekly jobs number had been going up since August and just dropped to 18,500 from 26,000. More people are also staying on unemployment which can mean it鈥檚 taking longer to find a job.
Claims can stay this low while ADP drops because they count people applying for unemployment and ADP counts how many jobs companies added overall.
Most companies still have enough business to keep their workers. But fuel and tariffs are costing them more so it looks like they are being careful about hiring. It seems some companies don鈥檛 need to hire as many people now that they鈥檙e using AI.
There are still more jobs being added than in July and August according to ADP. They revised their last two numbers up so this drop might end up smaller.
We will know more on November 6 when BLS reports October and revises September.
Yields keep moving with AI stocks. When AI sells off people run to bonds and yields drop and when AI bounces yields go back up.
The market is asking if all the money going into AI will pay off. It鈥檚 most worried about companies borrowing to pay for it. About 40% of US growth is coming from AI spending so yields falling seems to show the market is starting to question that growth.
Those growth concerns would feed the recession risk. When people start losing their jobs that鈥檚 when the music stops.
But so far the job market is ok. Layoffs are still low but hiring looks like it could be starting to slow down.
Yields aren鈥檛 falling because inflation is cooling. We need this war to end to send oil down which will help cool headline inflation.
Core still seems sticky and the longer oil stays high the more it risks spreading into other prices. If it pushes wages up that could keep inflation from coming down but so far wage growth is slowing.
I don鈥檛 think many doubt AI pays off eventually. We鈥檙e being promised trillions in AI revenue and it鈥檚 growing fast. But the spending comes first and the revenue comes later. The wait in between is where things could get uncomfortable especially for companies that borrowed heavily.
The yen is gaining on USD because US yields have come down and the Fed is expected to hold rates next week.
Japan鈥檚 inflation is around the BoJ鈥檚 2% target but rates are only 1.25% so borrowing is still cheap. With a weak yen and high oil pushing prices up the BoJ wants to keep hiking before inflation goes past 2%. The market continues to price in a December hike.
Bessent has been pushing the BoJ to hike since the summer because higher rates in Japan support the yen without Japan having to sell US Treasuries to do it.
But the market thinks the Fed will hike in December as well so the difference between US and Japanese rates may not change much.
Japan鈥檚 inflation numbers come out tonight and a higher than expected number would make a BoJ hike in December even more likely.
$META is doing almost the same thing $GOOGL did in 2014. Google gave shareholders a non voting Class C share for each share they owned so Page and Brin could keep control while Google kept issuing stock.
The Class C shares traded lower than the voting ones and Google ended up paying $522 million to make up for it.
The big difference is Meta wants to use these shares to help raise the hundreds of billions they say they need for AI. Google mostly used theirs to pay employees and buy companies.
And it is also for Zuckerberg. If California passes its billionaire tax next month he can sell some of his new shares to pay it without giving up votes.
$META is creating a new kind of share with no voting rights. Every shareholder will get one for each share they own. It鈥檚 a stock dividend but it works like a 2 for 1 stock split.
Zuckerberg holds most of the voting power. Since the new shares don鈥檛 come with votes Meta can sell them to pay for AI and he keeps control.
Zuckerberg will get the new shares as well. He can sell 20% of them without losing voting power. With the other 80% he gives up some voting power for every one he sells.
That rule goes away over 8 years if he stays full time on Meta鈥檚 executive team or as executive chair.
Layoffs are still really low but hiring looks like it鈥檚 slowing down.
US jobless claims fell to 194K last week which is the lowest since July. But ADP鈥檚 weekly jobs number had been going up since August and just dropped to 18,500 from 26,000. More people are also staying on unemployment which can mean it鈥檚 taking longer to find a job.
Claims can stay this low while ADP drops because they count people applying for unemployment and ADP counts how many jobs companies added overall.
Most companies still have enough business to keep their workers. But fuel and tariffs are costing them more so it looks like they are being careful about hiring. It seems some companies don鈥檛 need to hire as many people now that they鈥檙e using AI.
There are still more jobs being added than in July and August according to ADP. They revised their last two numbers up so this drop might end up smaller.
We will know more on November 6 when BLS reports October and revises September.
Not Another Quant retweeted
$SPCX expects revenue to more than double in six months and most of that growth comes from AI.
Part of it is from deals they have signed or expect to sign and part is from their own products like Cursor and Grok Bot.
Either way SpaceX needs a lot more servers running to do this. That鈥檚 why they鈥檙e spending so much in Q4.
They say demand isn鈥檛 the problem so it depends on how fast they can build.
Not Another Quant retweeted
Bessent wants US long yields lower but Japanese investors have sold foreign bonds four weeks in a row. Japan holds more Treasuries than any other foreign country.
A US 10 year used to pay about 4 percentage points more than a Japanese 10 year and now it pays about 2 more. A lot of Japanese buyers hedge the dollar and that costs them more than 2 points so a Japanese bond pays them more. That鈥檚 been true since 2022 but Japanese bonds now pay almost 3% so they are finally worth buying instead.
AI companies are borrowing a lot right now and a big part of it is long term debt. They sell it to the same pension funds and insurers that buy long Treasuries. The US government is competing with AI companies for those buyers at the same time Japan has less reason to buy US bonds.
But US auctions are still getting strong demand at yields above 5%. Bessent needs that demand at lower yields and so does anyone hoping for lower mortgage rates. When the 10 year goes up mortgage rates go up with it and the average rate is 7.4% now.
