Captain of a deepwater drilling asset
Bogotá, DC, Colombia
Joined July 2009
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Two sister drillships being built in Hyundai’s shipyard. One drillship was already floating and about to complete equipment commissioning while the second ship was still in dry dock awaiting derrick installation. Hyundai’s mass production line was unlike anything I’ve ever seen . . . Truly incredible! $rig $val $ne $do $tdw
I didn’t want to say anything until the news was officially released. This is an absolute tragedy. $borr
upstreamonline.com/safety/fi…
💯 Abolishing the Jones Act is like replacing our military with chinese soldiers. At least we’ll save a couple bucks though.
👀
BREAKING: We just caught another interesting trade.
Representative Lisa McClain just filed a purchase of stock in a company called Transocean, $RIG
It's a Swiss offshore drilling company.
This is the first time we've seen a member of Congress trade the stock in over 5 years.
In my previous post I highlighted how important the Mississippi Canyon field is to offshore production. All the production platforms numbered in this chart below are in Mississippi Canyon. Luckily, the path of Hurricane Isaias has shifted east. The backside of the hurricane is the safer side. Looks like the production platforms in Mississippi Canyon will be spared as long as the path doesn’t drift back west. Btw, great visual Michael! Give the guy a follow!
The yellow path is absolute worst case scenario for the offshore oil fields. That would be a direct hit on the Mississippi Canyon field which is the holy grail. I hope Google’s deep mind AI is more accurate than the GFS and Euro models. If this potential hurricane stays on the purple path the offshore fields should be fine.
These oil companies will have to make major decisions within the next 48 hours on whether or not they will evacuate these production platforms. Google the words Hurricane Katrina and Thunderhorse to see what can happen to a production platform in a hurricane.
The forecast has not gotten any better for the developing tropical storm in the Gulf this week...
Invest 92L's future remains extremely uncertain, with AI guidance and traditional hurricane models showing two dramatically different scenarios. The experimental Google DeepMind AI ensemble takes the system toward the Alabama–Florida Panhandle coast as a potentially strong hurricane Friday, while the GFS, Euro, and hurricane-model guidance generally keep the system farther west and weaker, with landfall around Louisiana or Mississippi on Saturday.
That massive spread is exactly why we still need more data. Reconnaissance over the next 24 hours should finally give forecasters a much better look at the storm's actual structure, strength, and surrounding environment, which should help narrow down both the track and intensity forecasts. NOAA's Gulfstream is scheduled to sample the environment today, with an Air Force reconnaissance mission planned for tomorrow.
For now, there is a LOT we still don't know about 92L. The next day of observations could be extremely important.
JD needs to visit the HHI and Samsung shipyards in Korea before making statements like this. 🤦♂️
Vice President JD Vance on the shipyard being built in Brownsville, Texas:
“The shipyard that's being built there will become the highest tech and one of the largest ship building facilities in the world...we haven't opened a new shipyard in this country in about 80 years...this is all about the President's agenda to reindustrialize the country, build more in the United States, but you're starting to see it pay off.”
Two more of my friends have been called up to active duty to help pilot ships through Hormuz. Props to Rory, he was one of the only analysts who was open minded to the idea of more oil getting through Hormuz than what mainstream was reporting over the last few months.
It seems that mainstream media has finally accepted this as reality so I’ll stop commenting on it. Also, I’m not saying the numbers were always this high but they were definitely higher than what certain traffic monitoring companies were reporting in real time.
Here comes demand destruction
BREAKING: Pakistan has imposed "lockdown-like" measures amid its fuel and gas crisis due to historically low supply, including fuel allocation reductions and a mandatory 9 PM market closure.
Details include:
1. Pakistan has now mandated all markets to close by 9 PM and the purchase of new government vehicles has been banned
2. The country is also implementing a 50% cut in fuel allocations for government vehicles
3. The government has announced a 5% reduction in non-employee-related spending and banned official foreign visits, urging virtual meetings instead
4. Official dinners have been prohibited, except those hosted for foreign visitors and delegations
Today marks day number 202 of the Iran War.
Iran is probably announcing this bc a significant amount of oil is getting out of Hormuz. A month ago oil bulls claimed no ships were transiting Hormuz, then they said only 2 mil bpd were leaving, then it was only 4 mil, then it was only 6 mil now it’s up to 8 mil bpd. Don’t listen to the doomsayers.
Big news tonight:
Iran says new restrictions will be implemented in the coming days.
Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), Mohsen Rezaei said that "In the coming days, a restricted zone will be announced outside the Strait of Hormuz. This zone will begin from the line of the US Navy's blockade and extend to areas in the Persian Gulf. Any ship that enters this new zone will be placed on the sanctions list."
So what?
It is clear that a handful of companies areferrying Gulf-origin oil out via the Strait of Hormuz. Last week, the PGSA said they would add any ship which conducts STS with these vessels to the sanctioned list and could face difficulties in the future.
If the new restricted zone is implemented, it means Iran will try to control all traffic entering the Gulf of Oman as per the image.
Goldman is now confirming what the CEO of Total said last week. I sound like a broken record at this point but for the 100th time, I would be skeptical of Kpler’s data.
Anyone that has worked in the Gulf of Mexico will recognize that yellow PHI helicopter. Where all my hands at? Somebody better warn Elon of PHI’s slogan. #FlyAndDieWithPHI 😂😂😂
Elon Musk checking out @SpaceX's new Starbase, Louisiana location.
Elon: "If you want to make life mutli-planetary, you need serious tonnage. I think we're going to bring 10,000 really exciting jobs to Louisiana. I think Starbase is cool. Starbase, Louisiana it is."
The CEO of Total, for those that don’t know is a French oil behemoth, has zero reasons to lie on behalf of the Trump administration.
TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne says oil is flowing the Strait of Hormuz “very quietly,” and his company is largest trader of Iraqi/Qatari crude.
Pouyanne says it costs ~$20 million per VLCC per SoH passage (including return) in freight and insurance. TotalEnergies is buying crude inside Persian Gulf at ~$50-$60 a barrel as producers are “desperate” for lifters, making the process profitable.
If you don’t believe me, maybe you will believe Rory Johnston or this guy below. No one is denying the oil deficit but it seems like both guys are open to the possibility that more oil is exiting the Gulf. We’ll find out soon enough but at this point I can’t trust anyone not considering this as a possibility. It’s very refreshing to see this type of open mindedness compared to other oil related accounts who are 100% positive that Hormuz is still completely closed off bc of a time lapse that they watched from the marine traffic website.
No, this is false.
1) This is just a preliminary daily flow print from Kpler. Kpler explicitly flags these as raw estimates, and these prints carry a heavy upward revision bias weeks down the road.
2) Since everyone is now issuing spot tenders following ADNOC's playbook, we can roughly deduce the volumes they are able to transit.
China just took down sizable clips of Basrah and Arab crude via tender—loading outside the Strait. Both SOMO and Aramco are running ADNOC’s exact playbook. Shuttling crude into Fujairah for offshore STS.
3) TD3C freight is ripping. That’s not floating storage parking barrels; it’s genuine tanker demand driven by barrels actively clearing through STS ops.
4) Optical and SAR satellite feeds confirm nonstop liftings out of UAE terminals like Zirku and Das. Iraq and Kuwait are lifting at a steady clip too, even if trailing ADNOC's pace.
5) So while Bessent quoting 16mb/d was blatant jawboning—maybe cherry picking a single day spike as the baseline—don't let permabull bias blind you into discounting shadow flows.
Prompt flows are running at least 5–6mb/d, easily scaling toward ~8mb/d. Nobody is disputing that the macro balance is in a deep deficit.
However one should not use simple preliminary prints to deny the reality that meaningful physical flow is transiting the Strait.
#oott #iran
Rooting for Iran to use their missiles just to pump your bags is some really gross stuff. HFI Research has morphed into an IRGC fan club account. Ppl will sell their souls for money.