Personal Journal † Aggressive Momentum Swing Trader | Focused on Tension & Release | "keep it stupid simple" - NFA.
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Joined May 2020
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If I told you the next incredible trading environment was 90 days away, could you actually sit in cash until then?
I think most traders would say yes, but their actions would tell a completely different story, and I've been guilty of this myself recently.
We get so caught up trying to nail the exact bottom that we forget you don't have to buy the lowest candle to make an unbelievable amount of $$ in the next uptrend.
I think about it like trying to catch a train... everybody wants to be the first person on board, even if that means standing on the tracks while it's still coming toward them. I'd much rather wait until I know which direction it's heading and hop on at the next stop.
If this correction takes another 2-3 months to work itself out, so be it.
That gives broken leaders time to rebuild bases, moving averages time to curl higher + new RS names time to separate themselves from the pack. When the market finally turns, there will likely be DAYS and WEEKS of opportunities to position ourselves in the strongest names.
Missing the bottoming day doesn't mean I missed the move. The real money is made catching a meaningful piece of the underlying trend, not proving to everyone that I bought the exact low.
And that's what I'm trying to remind myself right now.
Would I rather spend the next 3 months taking unnecessary paper cuts trying to predict the turn, or preserve my capital & mental energy so I can actually press when my edge returns?
Something I've been chewing on lately... I would love to hear your thoughts as well.
Chart: $QQQ.
I think the market needs to frustrate a few more people before giving us what we really want to see.
Call me crazy, but I'd actually love to see 1 more flush lower to trap the late shorts, followed by an aggressive rip toward ATHs and a few weeks of consolidation at new highs.
That would give all these broken leaders time to rebuild their bases, tighten up, and potentially set the stage for another leg higher.
The last thing I want is a straight rip higher with no quality setups to participate in. I'm not predicting anything, just laying out what I'd personally love to see.
Chart: $QQQ.
6 days later, and look at $CRWD, $OKTA, $PLTR + $NTAP getting aggressively bid off their respective 9weeks.
This is literally THE pivot I'm watching on leadership in this messy environment, and how these names behave off these areas will tell me a lot about where demand is showing up.
Keep it stupid simple, don't overcomplicate it.
Chart: $CRWD, $OKTA, $PLTR, $NTAP.
A lot of leaders are pulling back into their respective 9week EMAs, and I'm watching which names get bid aggressively off these areas + reclaim their 50EMAs.
How these stocks respond could give us an early glimpse into the next wave of leadership.
For now, I'm content sitting on my hands, tracking RS, and letting the strongest names separate themselves from the pack.
I'd rather wait for the EMAs to curl higher, bases to develop & right-side pivots to form before putting meaningful risk back on.
Not yet, but I'm paying attention...
iain retweeted
Some of these former leaders have sustained serious technical damage.
I don’t think people realize how long it can take to rebuild some of these bases.
We’re talking weeks or months, not 2-3 green days. It wouldn’t surprise me to see plenty of chop ahead.
Some of y’all might genuinely be better off coming back January 1st.
Half this prop firm circus disappears when you grow up, stop trading fake $$, and put your own hard earned capital on the line, because I guarantee you wouldn’t be blowing through 100s of accounts if every dollar came out of your own pocket.
Let me introduce you to the Big 3: @lanto_trades, .@thebrianstonk, and @dhesi_trades.
Two days ago, @thebrianstonk posts that the GOAT Lanto grabbed ten of the new $50K Vest accounts and is already up $200K. "Some people say $700 is too expensive." Then, right on cue, use code SMART. Screenshot straight from their group chat. And there's @dhesi_trades in the replies: "His spend is so low too 🤣🔥"
Spend so low. @lanto_trades told people he spent $21K. His screenshots show Accounts 41 through 50, all renamed, all with the same "A" icon instead of the account number. Then he posts his big $483K payout and forgets to crop the top of the screen, where it says Account 819. Deleted it fast, but not fast enough. Suddenly it's "full transparency coming soon," and today he's posting "there are expenses" and "when I made $2M on TPT, I spent over $300K." Funny how the expenses only show up after the screenshots do.
This is the whole business model. One posts the P&L, one hypes it, one drops the code. Every win ends with a link. Nobody posts the blown accounts, nobody posts the real spend until they're forced to, and the payout screenshot is the ad. These aren't trading educators. It's a marketing team with a group chat.
And this isn't a Vest thing. I've watched them run this same play with prop firm after prop firm for years, and they're not the only ones. Half the big streamers in this space do the exact same thing. New firm drops, new code, new screenshot, same script. People call it out, it blows over for a week, and then you're all right back in their replies calling them the GOAT and buying whatever they told you to buy.
Because let's be honest, most of you aren't there to learn. You're there for the entertainment. The big numbers, the hype, the "bro that's 200K" in the chat. It's a show, and you're paying for the tickets with your eval fees.
So at this point, if you're still buying accounts off their screenshots, just use code DUMB.
Unfollow. Block. Stop funding their highlight reels.
I blocked these three stooges when I exposed them before but ya’ll called me a hater. 💅🏼
Some of these former leaders have sustained serious technical damage.
I don’t think people realize how long it can take to rebuild some of these bases.
We’re talking weeks or months, not 2-3 green days. It wouldn’t surprise me to see plenty of chop ahead.
Some of y’all might genuinely be better off coming back January 1st.
Something I don’t see enough traders talk about is the value of playing devil’s advocate with your own thesis.
I consistently ask myself, “what if I’m completely wrong here?” Not because I’m doubting or lack conviction, but because thinking through the worst case scenario forces me to identify where my thesis breaks, tighten my risk & avoid getting married to an idea.
I think challenging my own conviction is often what allows me to execute with more conviction.
double edge sword, eh?
I’ve made the majority of my money over the last 3+ years by being willing to think differently from the crowd.
And I’ve probably saved just as much by refusing to participate when everyone else was convinced there was $$ to be made.
Almost 6+ years in and I’ve realized that if you don’t develop the conviction to think for yourself, you’ll eventually become a reflection of everyone else’s opinions. And that’s a pretty dangerous place to be in an industry where the overwhelming majority struggle to make money consistently.
I’ve been on both sides of that equation.
I’ve followed narratives, ignored what price was telling me, and paid a pretty expensive tuition for it. The market doesn’t care how convincing someone’s thesis sounds or how many followers they have. Price is the final judge, and sometimes the most profitable decision you can make is refusing to join the party.
I’m 22 years old. I don’t think I’m better than anybody here, and I certainly don’t have this business figured out.
But I’ve never been afraid to call out the BS when I see it, even when it makes me unpopular.
I’ve dealt with criticism my entire life, and putting my thoughts out publicly has only amplified it. That’s totally fine with me. I’d rather be wrong thinking for myself than right because I blindly followed somebody else.
If you’re new here, I want you to know that this account is my public journal, not a highlight reel like majority on here. I’ll share my wins, losses, mistakes, unpopular opinions + the things I’m still trying to figure out. And if you’ve been around for a while, thank you for challenging my thinking, asking difficult questions, and encouraging me along the way.
I genuinely appreciate the conversations more than you know.
I’m not going to stop being myself to make my opinions more palatable. There’s something incredibly freeing about being willing to tell the truth as you see it, admit when you’re wrong, and keep learning.
Happy Saturday, my friends.
Love you all.
God bless!
@AtlasShrug1, everyone’s favorite villain, really is spitting some 🔥 here.
When I notice an account receiving a lot of hate on X for being a contrarian, I take notice.
I’ve doubled and tripled my accounts multiple times the last two years and have round tripped the gains every time due to my refusal to implement risk controls because I believe in some insane long term narrative. In reality, I just get addicted to the price moving up.
It’s easy to listen to the accounts posting triple digit returns screaming “generational opportunity” every time a story stock drops 50%+. These investors are prisoners of the future and not paying attention to the risks of the present moment.
I made the mistake last fall of not listening to guys like @commonsenseplay and @MartinShkreli who were both calling out the bs narratives behind nuclear and quantum stocks. In hindsight, those guys were completely right and that’s why you won’t catch me blocking users who disagree with my views.
There are lots of good traders on this platform who get no love because they aren’t flashy and poke holes in consensus trades with cult followings. Many of them were warning us in June and again in September when market structure changed. These guys have been through multiple cycles and understand that there’s much more to investing than financial statements and earnings reports.
Aside from the names I’ve listed above, I’d like to give a shout out to @Stockspy1
@paxtrader777
@ShortSeller
@ohiain
I’d like to thank all the contrarians out there and old heads who try to help less experienced players out. It’s not easy going against the grain, but your advice has been helpful and I’m glad I listened.
It’s not too late to get off the wrong train yet, but I do think there is a very strong chance that a lost decade is upon us.
Prepare accordingly and dust off that stagflationary playbook
A lot of traders here on X are about to learn an incredibly expensive lesson that could’ve been avoided with 1 simple decision.
Don’t let your losing swing trades turn into losing position trades just because your ego can’t stomach taking the loss.
We’re about to see a lot of bagholders praying for their positions to get back to breakeven, only to potentially get smoked on the next leg lower.
I wish someone had drilled this into my head when I first started… cut the dang loss when your thesis is invalidated, take your paper cut L & move on, praying your position comes back to b/e is not a risk management strategy.
Take my advice or suffer more.
My 2 cents.
At this rate, I'm better off scanning LinkedIn for job openings than TradingView
Forget the 9/21EMA.
I'm looking for a 9-to-5 with benefits.
