High Growth US Consumer Tech. Previously at 3 midcap public tech cos. Voting and weighing stocks. raw thoughts. dms open.
San Francisco, CA
Joined October 2020
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If ai pops we are going into a depression. Obvious.
Real question is if that happens soon or in 10 years and at spx 20000 etc
_clearly_ we are going to overshoot. But when?
If power plants, and fabs wont come online til 2030 its hard to see peak earnings or oversupply
Catching up on spacex earnings call and tl;dr is major compute shortage.
it seems borderline ridiculous but im inclined to believe him even if timelines warped
"sad" thing about being a technologist these days is that its often so consensus that you need to buy "startups" at $2 trillion
a few decades ago u could buy 1/3 of apple for like $500 and think that shit is overpriced
The connectivity numbers are INCREDIBLE!
What the ?
starlink is omega profitable and growing 100%+y/y
(ignoring ai /compute for a sec here)
SPACEX $SPCX Q3’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS
🔹 Revenue: $14.6B; +161% YoY
🔹 EPS: $0.35
🔹 Net Income: $4.4B
🔹 Adjusted EBITDA: $8.8B; +306% YoY
Capital Expenditures:
🔹 Total: $19.6B
🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $13.1B
Segment Revenue:
🔹 Space: $1.8B; +6% YoY
🔹 Connectivity: $5.2B; +69% YoY
🔹 SI: $7.6B; +830% YoY
Announcements:
🔹 First revenue-generating Starship mission successfully launched
🔹 Starbase, Louisiana next-generation spaceport planned
🔹 Grok Bot introduced as an always-on agentic SI system
Other Q3 Metrics:
🔹 Starlink Consumer Subscribers: 13.6M
If all you do is:
1. Do every task (via prompting AI 10 times)
2. Follow up with no dropped balls
You're gonna be top 5% of all people not even joking
Prior to AI you had to deal with lazy ass technical people who repeatedly dropped the ball coz they monopolized #1.
Whitepill but when hard skills are commoditized.
All you need to do is "execute".
SHOCKING how bad people are at this.
I give someone 10 asks a day.
"Close the loop" on all 10. That's it. Either finish the task, or follow up.
I think most employees do like 1-2 tbh.
From Elon, only 3 options:
"1. Explain why the instruction is wrong or flawed.
2. Ask for clarification if the direction is unclear.
3. Carry it out immediately."
It's incredible how common most people do 4. "Do nothing" or "ignore".
The bar is so low.
Whitepill but when hard skills are commoditized.
All you need to do is "execute".
SHOCKING how bad people are at this.
I give someone 10 asks a day.
"Close the loop" on all 10. That's it. Either finish the task, or follow up.
I think most employees do like 1-2 tbh.
From Elon, only 3 options:
"1. Explain why the instruction is wrong or flawed.
2. Ask for clarification if the direction is unclear.
3. Carry it out immediately."
It's incredible how common most people do 4. "Do nothing" or "ignore".
The bar is so low.
I'm considering upgrading to a 4 monitor set up.
Right now I have 2x27"
Alternative is to upgrade to larger monitors?
However 4x monitors I'd need a new macbook too.
thoughts?
seems underdiscussed
indonesia getting cooked
any opp here?
BREAKING: Bali has run out of fuel, with hours-long queues outside gas stations since Sunday and attendants posting signs reading "Sorry, no fuel available." Shortages are now hitting at least 11 Indonesian provinces.
Waiting times reached 2 to 3 hours in West Sumatra, and diesel queues ran about a kilometre on the Merak-Tangerang highway in Banten. Diesel or Pertalite sold out in Aceh, Riau, West Kalimantan, South Sulawesi, North Sulawesi and Yogyakarta.
Fuel tenders now attract few participants, per Indonesia's oil and gas director general, forcing the government to seek supplies directly from countries with surplus stocks at higher prices. Indonesia lost 25% of its fuel import sources after the Iran war began.
Bali is now preparing to restrict subsidised fuel sales to the top income decile.
🚨 Indonesia’s stock market crashes over -11% recording its biggest crash since 1998.
MSCI is considering downgrading Indonesia from an "emerging" market to a "standalone" market.
A standalone downgrade could force global funds to sell Indonesian stocks, triggering billions of dollars in outflows.
The move comes amid concerns over market transparency concentrated ownership and trading integrity.
The announcement triggered a massive sell-off and forced a temporary trading halt.
The Indonesian rupiah falls to 18,070 per dollar, nearing its record low of 18,190.
obviously accept the honeypot but feed them disastrous reverse secrets.
"oh yeah using the non-LLM archirectures Yann has been working on"
