@oysteranalytics

Two former college ballplayers modeling the next generation of MLB Talent.

oysteranalytics.com/
Joined January 2024
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665Media
1/5: Here's an explanation of our prospect modeling! Our models use minor league performance, biographical, and draft data to predict prospects' likelihood of making MLB, becoming a "regular" (at least 2 fWAR total, 1 per 600 PA) and a "star" (5 fWAR total, 2.5 per 600 PA).
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We think Smoltz is right about the challenge being ill-advised, but wrong about the reason. Players should always challenge to score/prevent runs, regardless of the score. This challenge is a bad one because it's early + not a K or BB pitch + nobody on + 2 outs. He won, though!
Pitch challenge evaluation from the catcher’s perspective: This pitch is called a strike 77.6% of the time, with a 92.2% break-even threshold for a successful challenge. That’s a -14.6 percentage-point margin, making this a BAD CHALLENGE. The strike zone visualization shows the pitch location just below the bottom of the zone, with the challenge boundary outlined. Sample: 330 pitches.

ALT Pitch challenge evaluation from the catcher’s perspective: This pitch is called a strike 77.6% of the time, with a 92.2% break-even threshold for a successful challenge. That’s a -14.6 percentage-point margin, making this a BAD CHALLENGE. The strike zone visualization shows the pitch location just below the bottom of the zone, with the challenge boundary outlined. Sample: 330 pitches.

Jomboy Media
@JomboyMedia14h
John Smoltz says William Contreras shouldn't be challenging balls and strikes with a 2-0 lead in low stress scenarios
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Oyster Analytics retweeted
Down on the Farm@downonthefarm12Oct 23
Our Oyster Simulator's World Series prediction is in! We project the series to be a lot tighter than the odds indicate, and both teams have the contact-heavy bats that make every out a challenge. Read on to see who we've got in the Fall Classic: downonthefarm.substack.com/p…
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Bonemer keeps on rolling! We probably overrate him a bit because we have him at SS, but even as a 3B or OF, his bat is more than enough to make an impact. He has the deadly power + lift combo, which should help offset some contact concerns as he ascends the levels.
Caleb Bonemer, Chicago White Sox shortstop, ranks #14 overall and #2 among White Sox prospects. His career outcome probabilities are 88% Contributor, 88% Regular, and 84% Star. Relative to league average, Bonemer stands out in home run power (1.80 SD), development speed (1.58), lift (1.38), discipline (0.88), and gap power (0.71). Contact is slightly above average (0.11), while avoiding strikeouts is below average (-0.19). His closest player comparison is Jurickson Profar (2011). The WAR-per-season chart shows strong probabilities of reaching at least 1 WAR per season, with probabilities declining as the threshold rises. The highlighted thresholds indicate strong odds of becoming a Contributor, Regular, or Star, though sustained star-level production is less certain. The confidence meter is high.

ALT Caleb Bonemer, Chicago White Sox shortstop, ranks #14 overall and #2 among White Sox prospects. His career outcome probabilities are 88% Contributor, 88% Regular, and 84% Star. Relative to league average, Bonemer stands out in home run power (1.80 SD), development speed (1.58), lift (1.38), discipline (0.88), and gap power (0.71). Contact is slightly above average (0.11), while avoiding strikeouts is below average (-0.19). His closest player comparison is Jurickson Profar (2011). The WAR-per-season chart shows strong probabilities of reaching at least 1 WAR per season, with probabilities declining as the threshold rises. The highlighted thresholds indicate strong odds of becoming a Contributor, Regular, or Star, though sustained star-level production is less certain. The confidence meter is high.

MLB's Arizona Fall League
@MLBazFallLeagueOct 23
It’s not just homers for Bonemer! The @whitesox No. 2 prospect shows of his speed with a RBI triple to extend Glendale’s lead. Bonemer is batting .289 this Fall
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Peete is on a heater! Our model has always been higher than the consensus on the young slugger, who possesses a rare contact-and-power combo but struggles with swing-and-miss. If he can blossom into a plus OF, he has a strong shot to be an impact player, even with the Ks.
Tai Peete, STL center fielder, ranks #40 overall and #4 among Cardinals prospects. He has an 84% chance of becoming a Contributor, 68% chance of becoming a Regular, and 33% chance of becoming a Star. Relative to league average, he excels in development speed (+1.73 SD), gap power (+1.43), lift (+1.15), contact (+0.82), and HR power (+0.81), but trails in discipline (-0.65) and strikeout avoidance (-0.61). His player comp is Josh Lowe (2018). The career WAR distribution is concentrated around 0.5–1.5 WAR per season, with a meaningful chance to reach 2 WAR and a smaller tail above 3 WAR. Highlighted thresholds mark Contributor, Regular, and Star outcomes, with Star at 3 WAR per season. The confidence meter indicates relatively high model confidence.

ALT Tai Peete, STL center fielder, ranks #40 overall and #4 among Cardinals prospects. He has an 84% chance of becoming a Contributor, 68% chance of becoming a Regular, and 33% chance of becoming a Star. Relative to league average, he excels in development speed (+1.73 SD), gap power (+1.43), lift (+1.15), contact (+0.82), and HR power (+0.81), but trails in discipline (-0.65) and strikeout avoidance (-0.61). His player comp is Josh Lowe (2018). The career WAR distribution is concentrated around 0.5–1.5 WAR per season, with a meaningful chance to reach 2 WAR and a smaller tail above 3 WAR. Highlighted thresholds mark Contributor, Regular, and Star outcomes, with Star at 3 WAR per season. The confidence meter indicates relatively high model confidence.

The Welsh
@IsItTheWelshOct 20
You’re likely not high enough on Tai Peete. Here’s his league tying 3rd triple which he hit 111mph. It’s all coming together for a real 5-tool prospect #ProspectOne @Cardinals
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Oyster Analytics retweeted
Sarah Langs
@SlangsOnSportsOct 16
The Brewers finished with a three true outcomes pct (PA ending in HR BB K) of 47.0% That’s the highest by any team in a best-of-7 postseason series all time
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We broke down the NCLS yesterday, and today the Oyster Sim sets its sights on the AL version. The Rays are the series favorites, but does our simulator back up their advantage? Read the article here: api.omarshehata.me/substack-…

ALCS Preview: Simulator Gives Rays a Significant Advantage

The Rays’ meaningfully better offense against RHP makes them the (by playoff baseball standards) heavy favorites

api.omarshehata.me
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Oyster Analytics retweeted
Down on the Farm@downonthefarm12Oct 11
It's championship series time, and so it's also time to put the Oyster Simulator back to work! We used the simulator to predict the NLCS, looking at expected runs per game by pitcher handedness to see which team has the edge at the plate. LA has the edge! api.omarshehata.me/substack-…

NLCS Preview: Simulations Suggest Dodger Southpaws Will Challenge Brew Crew

We use the Oyster Simulator to assess whether the Dodgers or the Brewers are set up better at the plate for the series

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Back when he was still a Marlin, Mesa was our Miami player to watch headed into 2026. We loved his combo of contact and power, even if it came with a ton of chase. One 2.6 WAR season and a clutch HR later, he's overachieved our hyper-bullish preseason projection!
Victor Mesa Jr., Miami Marlins prospect, is ranked No. 70 overall and No. 2 in the Marlins system. Career outcome probabilities are 85% Contributor, 37% Regular, and 15% Star. Relative stats vs. league average: 0.93 development speed, -0.62 discipline, 0.71 strikeout avoidance, 0.65 contact, 0.00 gap power, 0.30 home-run power, and -0.08 lift. The career outcome chart shows a strong concentration of projected WAR in the first two seasons, with the distribution tapering steadily afterward and a smaller portion reaching the 3+ WAR/season Star range. Comp: Alek Thomas, 2024.

ALT Victor Mesa Jr., Miami Marlins prospect, is ranked No. 70 overall and No. 2 in the Marlins system. Career outcome probabilities are 85% Contributor, 37% Regular, and 15% Star. Relative stats vs. league average: 0.93 development speed, -0.62 discipline, 0.71 strikeout avoidance, 0.65 contact, 0.00 gap power, 0.30 home-run power, and -0.08 lift. The career outcome chart shows a strong concentration of projected WAR in the first two seasons, with the distribution tapering steadily afterward and a smaller portion reaching the 3+ WAR/season Star range. Comp: Alek Thomas, 2024.

MLB
@MLBOct 8
VICTOR MESA JR. NO-DOUBT Rays go back in front!
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Like fellow OF Chandler Simpson, Mesa's key has been the glove, which has been one of the best in the league from the corner OF. Mesa is the high-floor player we thought he'd be, but if he can emulate his decent slugging, moderate swing-and-miss approach, he has massive upside!
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Nimmala is back at it! Our #4 overall prospect has been dominant since joining the Angels, and he's continuing his run in the AFL. He made strides in his hit tool and glove this season, while maintaining the lift and pop that make him special. The Angels got a good one!
Arjun Nimmala, SS for Low-A, is ranked No. 4 overall and the No. 1 LAA prospect. Career outcome probabilities: 99% Contributor, 99% Regular, 93% Star. Relative stats vs. league average: Development Speed +1.82 SD, Gap Power +1.18, HR Power +0.75, Lift +0.54, Discipline +0.44, Avoid K +0.26, Contact +0.14. His listed comp is Yu Chang, 2016. The career-outcome chart shows a very high probability of positive WAR seasons through roughly three seasons, with probabilities declining gradually thereafter; the highlighted thresholds are Contributor, Regular, and Star. Confidence meter is very high.

ALT Arjun Nimmala, SS for Low-A, is ranked No. 4 overall and the No. 1 LAA prospect. Career outcome probabilities: 99% Contributor, 99% Regular, 93% Star. Relative stats vs. league average: Development Speed +1.82 SD, Gap Power +1.18, HR Power +0.75, Lift +0.54, Discipline +0.44, Avoid K +0.26, Contact +0.14. His listed comp is Yu Chang, 2016. The career-outcome chart shows a very high probability of positive WAR seasons through roughly three seasons, with probabilities declining gradually thereafter; the highlighted thresholds are Contributor, Regular, and Star. Confidence meter is very high.

MLB Pipeline
@MLBPipelineOct 6
Arjun Nimmala jumps all over a hanging slider! MLB's No. 34 prospect (@Angels) pummels his first Fall League homer 401 feet:
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Oyster Analytics retweeted
Down on the Farm@downonthefarm12Oct 5
In part two of our playoff vs. regular season series, we get into the heavy hitters (literally): Do HR matter more in the playoffs? Is small-ball the way to go? Which players benefit (and lose) the most from the postseason environment? Read below: api.omarshehata.me/substack-…

Runs Are Scored Differently in the Playoffs; Cui Bono?

We investigate how the run scoring environment is different in the playoffs and assess how the changes impact this season’s participants

api.omarshehata.me
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Oyster Analytics retweeted
Down on the Farm@downonthefarm12Oct 3
With the playoffs in full swing, we dive into the similarities and differences between the regular season and playoff play. From pitcher usage, to velocity and stuff shifts, and experience vs. youth, we investigate playoff facts and fictions! api.omarshehata.me/substack-…

How Playoff Baseball is Different, Part 1

We investigate how October baseball is truly different from its regular season counterpart, and how it’s deceptively similar

api.omarshehata.me
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A big HR for Meidroth! He was once an Oyster dandy, and with his improved pull and elevation, his power rose from poor to below average, letting his other exceptional attributes shine. He was perhaps a bit lucky on his batted-ball outcomes, but a 4.5 WAR season is legit!
Oyster Analytics@oysteranalytics13 Apr 2025
Meidroth is a model darling, with his elite BB skills leading the way! He's found the power stroke in '25, clubbing 3 HR in 40 PA in AAA after hitting only 7 in 550+ PA in '24. If he can add that little bit of power, he can punish pitchers who know Meidroth won't chase!
Chase Meidroth's future projection shows a 91% chance of being a Contributor, an 80% chance of being a Regular, and an 18% chance of becoming a Star. Relative Statistics, measured by standard deviations from the mean, include the following metrics: Discipline: +2.30 Development Speed: +1.58 Avoid K: +1.44 Contact: +0.32 Gap Power: -0.37 Home Run Power: -0.55 His most comparable player is Che Hsuan Lin (2010).

ALT Chase Meidroth's future projection shows a 91% chance of being a Contributor, an 80% chance of being a Regular, and an 18% chance of becoming a Star. Relative Statistics, measured by standard deviations from the mean, include the following metrics: Discipline: +2.30 Development Speed: +1.58 Avoid K: +1.44 Contact: +0.32 Gap Power: -0.37 Home Run Power: -0.55 His most comparable player is Che Hsuan Lin (2010).

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We mentioned Virahonda in our recording of tomorrow's podcast, and we think he's worthy of legit prospect status. He makes a boatload of contact, added power, and a raised walk rate in A+ is a sign of improved discipline. He's lurking outside of our top 100.
Carlos Virahonda, an Arizona Diamondbacks catcher, is ranked #134 overall and #4 among Arizona prospects. His career outcome probabilities are 40% Contributor, 32% Regular, and 6% Star. Relative stats show development speed +0.99 SD, discipline -0.88, strikeout avoidance +0.98, contact +0.62, gap power +0.15, home-run power +1.08, and lift +0.69 versus league average. The career-outcome chart shows the probability distribution for his peak WAR per season, with most of the probability concentrated below 2 WAR, a smaller tail extending toward 3+ WAR, and the Star threshold highlighted around 3 WAR. His listed comparison is Omar Narvaez (2013).

ALT Carlos Virahonda, an Arizona Diamondbacks catcher, is ranked #134 overall and #4 among Arizona prospects. His career outcome probabilities are 40% Contributor, 32% Regular, and 6% Star. Relative stats show development speed +0.99 SD, discipline -0.88, strikeout avoidance +0.98, contact +0.62, gap power +0.15, home-run power +1.08, and lift +0.69 versus league average. The career-outcome chart shows the probability distribution for his peak WAR per season, with most of the probability concentrated below 2 WAR, a smaller tail extending toward 3+ WAR, and the Star threshold highlighted around 3 WAR. His listed comparison is Omar Narvaez (2013).

Tobey Schulman
@tschulmanreportSep 28
Carlos Virahonda followed up a a strong first year stateside with a great season at 20 years old. He led the Dbacks org with 94 RBI and his 122 wRC+ was good for fifth best among all qualified AZ prospects. Virahonda showed more power this year than ever before. After hitting just four home runs in 2025, he would go on to hit 19 this season. Pair that with a 17.2% K%, and it makes for a very fun offensive profile.
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Oyster Analytics retweeted
Down on the Farm@downonthefarm12Sep 26
Owen's Bruce Springsteen and baseball obsessions combine in this week's article, a fun take on the MLB playoffs. With our trademark analytical rigor, we match every postseason participant with their “Boss comp” album and highlight prospects to watch: api.omarshehata.me/substack-…

Which Springsteen Album Is Each MLB Playoff Team?

Some teams are born into a good life, some get it anyway, anyhow; with our trademark analytical rigor, we match every postseason participant with their “Boss comp”

api.omarshehata.me
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Ben Malgeri was liked by our modeling heading into the season, but has faded a bit since. Regardless, with a strong glove and good contact, he's an ideal bench bat, and he's been a fantastic rotation player for Detroit this season. We think he's a model beater!
Ben Malgeri, Detroit Tigers prospect and outfielder, is ranked #646 overall and #22 among Detroit prospects. His relative-stat profile shows below-average development speed (-0.41) and discipline (-0.44), slightly above-average strikeout avoidance (0.20) and lift (0.33), strong contact ability (0.90), and excellent gap power (1.84), while home-run power is essentially league average (0.01). His career-outcome probabilities are 2% for becoming a Contributor, 2% for a Regular, and less than 1% for a Star. The WAR-per-season chart shows a very small distribution concentrated near zero, with almost no probability reaching the Contributor, Regular, or Star thresholds. His listed comp is Stuart Fairchild (2019). A confidence meter at the bottom is mostly filled.

ALT Ben Malgeri, Detroit Tigers prospect and outfielder, is ranked #646 overall and #22 among Detroit prospects. His relative-stat profile shows below-average development speed (-0.41) and discipline (-0.44), slightly above-average strikeout avoidance (0.20) and lift (0.33), strong contact ability (0.90), and excellent gap power (1.84), while home-run power is essentially league average (0.01). His career-outcome probabilities are 2% for becoming a Contributor, 2% for a Regular, and less than 1% for a Star. The WAR-per-season chart shows a very small distribution concentrated near zero, with almost no probability reaching the Contributor, Regular, or Star thresholds. His listed comp is Stuart Fairchild (2019). A confidence meter at the bottom is mostly filled.

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Oyster Analytics retweeted
Down on the Farm@downonthefarm12Sep 22
Link to the podcast: downonthefarm.substack.com/p…
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Oyster Analytics retweeted
Down on the Farm@downonthefarm12Sep 22
We've got a special podcast this week, as we interviewed former Angels P @_ryansmith9! We talked about his late-blooming baseball journey, data use in the minors, and the tension between pitch development and maximizing current performance.
Smith throws a pitch for the Salt Lake Bees.

ALT Smith throws a pitch for the Salt Lake Bees.

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Check out this month's hottest hitters! We've got smaller-statured players finding enough power to produce, old-for-the-level prospects stepping up and dominating, and well-rounded prospects who, despite lacking standout tools, got it all to click: api.omarshehata.me/substack-…

The September Hot Streaks That Matter, ft. Welbyn Francisca, Caden Bodine, and More

Oyster projections + streaks model + video analysis = an obsessively rigorous guide to September’s MiLB hot streaks

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Our model took a long time to come around on De Paula, but it's now sold on his bat. He may have the best bat in the minors, but his corner OF status dents his ceiling a bit. Almost no hitters have his power, average, and discipline, and he'll be a day-one problem for MLB arms!
Josue De Paula, LAD OF prospect, is ranked #25 overall and #2 Dodgers prospect. The model gives him a 96% chance to become a Contributor, 93% Regular, and 39% Star. Relative stats vs. league average: Development Speed +1.40 SD, Discipline +0.86, Avoid K +1.20, Contact +0.99, Gap Power +0.93, HR Power +0.90, Lift +0.74. His player comp is Ryan Waldschmidt, 2025. The career-outcome chart shows a strong probability of sustained above-average production: nearly all simulated outcomes reach the Contributor and Regular thresholds, while about 39% reach the Star threshold. The distribution is concentrated around roughly 0.5–3 WAR per season, with a smaller tail extending beyond 4 WAR. Confidence meter is very high.

ALT Josue De Paula, LAD OF prospect, is ranked #25 overall and #2 Dodgers prospect. The model gives him a 96% chance to become a Contributor, 93% Regular, and 39% Star. Relative stats vs. league average: Development Speed +1.40 SD, Discipline +0.86, Avoid K +1.20, Contact +0.99, Gap Power +0.93, HR Power +0.90, Lift +0.74. His player comp is Ryan Waldschmidt, 2025. The career-outcome chart shows a strong probability of sustained above-average production: nearly all simulated outcomes reach the Contributor and Regular thresholds, while about 39% reach the Star threshold. The distribution is concentrated around roughly 0.5–3 WAR per season, with a smaller tail extending beyond 4 WAR. Confidence meter is very high.

Alden González@Alden_GonzalezSep 10
News: The Dodgers are calling up their best prospect, OF Josue De Paula, sources told ESPN. He will be with the team on Friday, for the start of a weekend series in Miami. More to come.
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