Parker (@parkerisch) header
Parker (@parkerisch) profile picture

tracking sharp wallets, markets and everything worth watching on @Polymarket

Alpha
Joined December 2023
Photo by Parker (@parkerisch)Photo by Parker (@parkerisch)Photo by Parker (@parkerisch)Photo by Parker (@parkerisch)Photo by Parker (@parkerisch)Photo by Parker (@parkerisch)Photo by Parker (@parkerisch)Photo by Parker (@parkerisch)Photo by Parker (@parkerisch)Photo by Parker (@parkerisch)
POLYMARKET: 86% THAT JASON OR LUCIA DIES IN GTA 6 the game isn't even out yet, but the market already expects at least one of the two leads not to make it to the credits the price started climbing after a wallet created this month bought YES and built a ~$2.8K position And YES needs just one death in at least one ending, epilogue included. Same as GTA 5 bro spoiling the ending?
3
4
134
YOU CAN NOW BET ON POLYMARKET WHETHER KAI CENAT WILL FINISH ALL 5 GTA GAMES BY NOVEMBER 12 he already beat GTA 3 in just 10 hours, which is actually a pretty solid start, but he still has Vice City, San Andreas, GTA 4 and GTA 5 ahead of him Kai seems pretty confident he can finish the whole marathon by November 12, but Polymarket traders aren't so sure, giving him just a 34% chance of pulling it off I just wanna see how that confidence holds up when he gets to that one helicopter mission in Vice City...
Kai Cenat believes he will complete EVERY GTA game during his marathon before November 12th 👀 “a lot of people don’t think I can beat the games in time… I beat Elden Ring…”
1
3
428
what if Shayne’s big announcement isn’t $Poly at all? looks like Polymarket is finally bringing proper perp trading features to Perps a bunch of fresh PRs appeared in the SDK within just a few hours, and almost all of them are specifically tagged for perps most of these are already pretty standard on major perp exchanges, but Polymarket could finally be adding them too: → Trailing Stop Loss → TWAP execution → Partial TP/SL → Chase Orders → Good-Till-Date Orders → Position Snapshots → Auto-Deleveraging Notifications and all of this comes right after Polymarket was compared with Hyperliquid maybe Shayne’s announcement is about Perps after all
I think it's a good time check out @Poly_Perps during Token 2049 🔮
5
1
24
2,259
3 OPEN-SOURCE TOOLS FOR FINDING BETTER SPORTS BETS ON POLYMARKET I went through all three so you don’t have to 1. NBA-Machine-Learning-Sports-Betting — 1.7K⭐ github.com/kyleskom/NBA-Mach… basically an ML model built to estimate NBA game outcomes → trained on historical NBA data → generates win predictions → compares model probabilities with sportsbook odds → includes backtesting so if Lakers YES is trading at 62¢ on Polymarket but the model sees something closer to 52%, you immediately have a market worth looking into 2. Public ESPN API — 742⭐ github.com/pseudo-r/Public-E… this one basically gives your AI access to ESPN data across 20+ sports → live scores → schedules → standings → team/player data → news → NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL and more the interesting part is that the repo is structured to make ESPN data much easier for AI/LLMs to work with so instead of manually checking ESPN before every Polymarket bet, you can feed the relevant data directly into your AI 3. Sports Skills — 234⭐ github.com/machina-sports/sp… this one is probably the most useful specifically for Polymarket it gives AI agents ready-made sports + prediction market tools → live NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, football, tennis, F1 and more → Polymarket prices + order books → ESPN schedules and stats → compares sportsbook odds with Polymarket → can match a game with its Polymarket market → 300+ commands with no API keys for the public-data skills sports-skills.sh for example, you can basically ask your AI: show me today’s NBA games, find the matching Polymarket markets and compare the odds and it can pull the sports data + prediction market prices into one flow that’s way more useful than opening ESPN, sportsbooks and Polymarket separately AI predictions + live sports data + Polymarket in one stack save this before you lose it
1
6
1,365
this guy created his Polymarket account just 2 weeks ago he’s already thrown ~$15k at the US confirming aliens exist before 2027 and he’s still buying more what’s going on?
4
1
10
437
TWO NEW WALLETS SHOWED UP TODAY AND IMMEDIATELY ENTERED THE SAME MARKET both took NO on Trump renaming AI by September 30 → Ludkapol: around $4.1K at 48.7¢ → Cryptokatkat: around $2.5K at 50.2¢ and these are still their only positions on Polymarket they’re also still adding to their positions the problem is the market moved against them pretty quickly NO is now around 30¢, so both wallets are already sitting at roughly -38% to -40% the position are still relatively small but it’ll be interesting to see how it ends
3
15
504
KEEPING MONEY ON NO ALIENS IS CURRENTLY MORE PROFITABLE THAN KEEPING IT IN A US BANK on Polymarket, NO on the US confirming the existence of aliens before the end of 2026 can currently be picked up with a limit order around 96.6¢ if you get filled and the market resolves NO, each share pays $1 in about 3 months that’s roughly +3.5% in 3 months for comparison, a good 3-month CD in the US currently pays around 4.1% APY, which works out to roughly +1% over the same period on $10,000: Polymarket NO → +$352 US bank CD → ~+$103 so in terms of return, NO aliens currently pays around 3.4x more and apparently I’m not the only one who noticed the market has already done almost $40M in volume the biggest NO trader put around $1.27M into this market and is now sitting on roughly $1.4M there’s one important catch: this only works if you actually get filled around 96.6¢ if you market buy and eat through the order book at higher prices, the return gets worse pretty quickly and yes, technically there is risk if the White House comes out tomorrow and says “guys, aliens are real,” your NO goes straight to hell but at that point you probably have bigger problems than your 3.5% turns out one of the best “yield plays” on Polymarket right now is just betting that aliens stay unconfirmed for 3 more months
1
13
444
THE WALLET THAT MADE +$120K BETTING ON A US STRIKE ON IRAN IS BACK WITH ITS SECOND BET Dicedicedice had only made one bet on Polymarket before, and it earned him around +$120K now, months later, he’s back: → Trump renames AI by September 30 → bet around $13.3K Trump has already publicly said he wants to replace the term AI with “Super Intelligence” but words alone aren’t enough for YES to win under the market rules, by September 30 he needs to sign an executive order, proclamation, or presidential memorandum officially establishing the new name the market is currently around 50/50 so over the next few days, traders are basically waiting for one document from the White House pretty interesting second bet for a wallet whose first one ended with +$120K
5
14
870
HE MADE ALMOST $1M BETTING ON SPORTS IN LESS THAN 3 WEEKS raybanman is having one of the craziest Polymarket runs I’ve seen recently on September 21, he was sitting at around +$161K in profit one week later, he’s at roughly +$953K all-time PnL, with just 26 predictions some of the recent wins are ridiculous: →Falcons vs Packers +$401.1K →Jets vs Lions +$384K →Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest +$144.7K those three bets alone brought in around +$930K he still had losses in between, but the overall curve keeps going almost straight up a week ago this wallet was barely above +$160K now it’s basically one good run away from seven figures bro speedran the road to $1M on Polymarket
1
8
789
ONE OF THE MOST CONVENIENT SCANNERS FOR POTENTIAL POLYMARKET INSIDERS Polyhint is useful because there’s basically nothing to set up it just sends pre-filtered suspicious trades straight to Telegram and gives each wallet a Radar Score based on how unusual the activity looks each alert shows things like: → wallet age → total trades → number of markets traded → position size and entry price → how much bigger the trade is than usual → market volume and liquidity → estimated trade impact for example, the wallet in the screenshot was only 0.1h old, had just 3 trades, and immediately bought around $1.16K of Claude Opus YES I’ve already found at least 3 Claude model release markets through Polyhint where very suspiciously timed wallets showed up obviously a high score doesn’t automatically mean insider but as a radar for wallets worth checking manually, it’s one of the most convenient tools I’ve used t.me/polyhint
1
14
842
HE TURNED ~$24 INTO $10.7K ON ONE POLYMARKET BET trader bought Xiaomi YES at around 0.2¢ on the market for the best Chinese AI company by the end of September he picked up around 12.4K shares for just ~$24 for almost all of August and September, the market was basically pricing Xiaomi near zero then Xiaomi dropped MiMo-V2.6, the model shot up the AI benchmarks, and the Polymarket price went from around 0.2% to almost 90% if Xiaomi actually wins, that would mean roughly a 500x on one bet and around $12K in profit bro basically bought a lottery ticket nobody wanted and somehow ended up holding the favorite
7
2
21
1,695
3 GITHUB REPOS THAT MAKE POLYMARKET RESEARCH WAY TOO EASY 1. changedetection — 34K⭐ github.com/dgtlmoon/changede… basically your 24/7 information radar it constantly monitors websites and detects when something changes → government websites → company pages → regulatory websites → official announcements instead of manually checking dozens of sources, you can make the system watch them for you and send an alert when something important changes especially useful when Polymarket prices can move within minutes after new information drops 2. TradingAgents — 108K⭐ github.com/TauricResearch/Tr… basically an AI investment committee instead of relying on one model, it splits the research between multiple agents → analyzes news and sentiment → builds separate bull and bear cases → makes agents debate each other → runs the idea through risk management and it already supports Polymarket data so instead of getting one AI prediction, you get several agents challenging each other before reaching a conclusion 3. RAGFlow — 91K⭐ github.com/infiniflow/ragflo… basically your own research database you can feed it huge amounts of primary sources → reports → court documents → transcripts → filings → research papers then AI can search across all of them and answer questions based on the original sources basically three different parts of a full Polymarket research desk in one stack
2
19
1,599