Since this Bear Market started ( and Yes, it's a full blown bear market, not a silly " correction" etc), Indian SM has been calling a bottom for the past 2 years. That's okay: there is swarth anywhere you look: finfluencers, fund & wealth managers, MFDs, Media, etc. So they have to believe a bull market is just seconds away. The real intellectual question to ask is: how do you actually spot when the bear market ends in the Bull market starts? The methods I have used broadly ( there are nuances- like the SS- Agreement in Motion, the secrets of which shall go to the grave with me, Lake of Returns Theory, explained superficially by me last couple years - etc.) are: If a decline in a market, ( say, India) is systemic, accompanied by a widespread decline in most markets ( 2000 bear market, 2008 bear market, 2020 short crash), then a 30-40% decline WITHIN 2 years, is a good enough level to start getting in. Similarly, if a stock has declined but the entire market has also declined similarly, then that stock or sector becomes a decent buy within a fairly finite level of all - there is also science & data to determine this. BUT BUT BUT The falls that should never be bought - not for a long while - are isolated , tanhai-waali falls in a particular country or in a particular stock, without much obvious explanation - while the rest of the world or rest of that market itself is in a bull market Companion-free falls & underperformances are huge red flags in my book: they point to reasons that are not visible just yet but there is something seriously wrong for a particular market to go in a totally different direction than the overall wind. India, on all previous occasions, did exactly in line with what the rest of the world was doing: it fell after the NASDAQ crashed in 2000. It fell during 2008 in a global bear market. It fell exactly inline with the Global bear market in COVID. But this time it IS DIFFERENT. And that is why this time it is dangerous. Because India is totally forsaken , desolate in the kind of market performance or the lack of it that it has displayed. This has never happened before. The rest of the world has been in a massive Bull market, AI and without AI ( LATAM, CEE eg). My Global macro fund has never had an easier time making money while doing the least amount of work. But looking at India you would think that the rest of the world was in a bear market. But the world Bull markets are breaking open bottles of champagne. India's bull is reduced to drinking tharra. Exactly like a stock that does not rise in a broad bull market but keeps falling: never ever get into that stock. There is something that the market knows that you do not. India looks suspiciously like that haveli that nobody occupies, while all other havelis have all the lights and parties on. These havelis are spooky. These havelis have secrets. They are just not saying them out. It is best to let Manoj Kumar or Biswajit open the haveli first & pry out evil aatma inside. It is best to occupy a neighbouring chawl in the meanwhile. But in my book, my method - unexplained bear markets when everything around it is going gangbusters... .I never try calling the bottom to those... You just never know what lies beneath...