@petergarnry

Peter Garnry, CFA, is an investor with 14 years of experience in global equities and was formerly Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo Bank

 København, Danmark
Joined January 2011
  • Tweets7.2K
  • Following237
  • Followers12.3K
538Media
I want to create a pinned thread and give everyone an opportunity to ask questions here related to equities, trading, factor investing, thematic investing etc. and then I will try to answer as many questions as possible based on my experience in these subjects...
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The dilemma is that if they let the FX rate go dictated by the market the response in the US and Europe will be steep tariffs that will more than offset the gains in exports from the weaker currency. A Gordian Knot…
Bob Elliott
@BobEUnlimited8 Jan 2025
Chinese policymakers remain in a holding pattern while pressure across their financial markets picks up steam. Bond yields and the FX are at multi-decade lows, and equities are under pressure after the short pop late last year. Markets are starting to force their hand. Thread.
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Yesterday, I wrote about how AI is fundamentally transforming the software industry. The increase in CapEx has not been negative for valuations because the market has offset the effect by lifting growth expectations. But there is more to it... petergarnry.substack.com/p/a…
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Grunden til at Kinesiske aktier ikke er investerbare skyldes tre ting. 1) det er meningsløst at tale om aktieinvesteringer i et land uden privat ejendomsret 2) geo politik. Tencent og CATL er lige tilføjet til US blacklist 3) dårlig forrentning af kapitalen
Kasper Flyvholm@kfj_jagr6 Jan 2025
Replying to @dagensaktiedk @BodilGantzel @petergarnry
Står bare af, hver gang de kalder Kina for uinvesterbart. Min største bekymring Ift at investere i "onde" lande såsom Kina, er EU eller USAs politikeres ageren. Og ikke så meget de "onde" landes ledere.
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Jeg har talt om investeringsåret 2024 med @petergarnry og @MagnusBarsoe i Børsen Brænder. En fin blanding mellem regioner, temaer, økonomiske forskelle og politik. Lyt med f.eks. nedenfor radio4.dk/podcasts/boersen-b… #dkøko

Børsen brænder - Sådan gik aktieåret 2024

Aktieboom. Trumponomics. Og recessionen, der aldrig kom. Vi tager en status for året, der gik: Amerikanske aktier har klaret sig fremragende, mens vi i Danmark har haft et regulært miserabelt år. Vi...

radio4.dk
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Despite having zero engagement or interest in crypto and also do not engagement in AI discussions outside those related to equity valuations, my feed is swarmed with hyperbolic comments and indirect advertisement of AI scams and crypto. Now on Bluesky... bsky.app/profile/petergarnry…
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What game are you playing? This is an essential question everyone should ask themselves. You can play the game in financial markets in many different ways. My game is being a patient and free cash flow focused investor. I want to talk less about price and more about value.
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Yesterday, I wrote about free cash flow, active investing, and why return of capital is not a value driver. Check it out. Next post is about how AI investments are impacting equity valuations for software companies. It is all about free cash flow open.substack.com/pub/peterg…
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Google, Meta, and Microsoft total employee figures are up 52.5%, 23.5% and 58.3% respectively since Q4 2019. Labor markets remain tight everywhere and technology companies are prioritizing CAPEX over OPEX right now because of gold rush in AI. The death of developers is wrong.
John Rush
@johnrush17 Dec 2024
I've replaced 100% of my marketing & sales dept with AI in 2024. It's literally just me + AI Agents, AI wrappers & AI workflows now. My goal for 2025 is to replace 90% of support, operations, and the rest. I'm not alone 🧵 :
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A significant part of this spread widening, which is important to think deeper about for any investor, is due to widening sector weight differentials. The more interesting thing is to compare industries and see whether valuation spreads are still large for identical assets.
Markets & Mayhem
@Mayhem4Markets1 Dec 2024
Amazing. US stocks are trading at a 75-year high in relative terms vs European equities. Do we ever see anything even vaguely resembling mean reversion, or is Europe just toast?
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Quality independent research from a skilled, out-of-the-box thinker and respected former colleague.
Peter Garnry@petergarnry9 Dec 2024
I want to keep writing about equities in a longer format. Five weeks with many meetings and projects got in the way of announcing what was the plan all along. To introduce my own publication on Substack. I call it 'Garnry Investments' petergarnry.substack.com/?r=…
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In a paper published today in Nature, researchers at Google Quantum AI crossed a significant threshold in quantum error correction, moving quantum computers one step closer to practical applications. @benbenbrubaker reports: quantamagazine.org/quantum-c…

Quantum Computers Cross Critical Error Threshold | Quanta Magazine

In a first, researchers have shown that adding more “qubits” to a quantum computer can make it more resilient. It’s an essential step on the long road to practical applications.

quantamagazine.org
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I want to keep writing about equities in a longer format. Five weeks with many meetings and projects got in the way of announcing what was the plan all along. To introduce my own publication on Substack. I call it 'Garnry Investments' petergarnry.substack.com/?r=…
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I will still be here on X and soon also on Bluesky commenting on financial markets, the economy and everything equities. Read my inauguration post petergarnry.substack.com/p/a…
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Funny experience with AI and writing style. I write some text and asks for its opinion on the style etc. It comes back with authenticity, personal style, inviting, but recommends sentence variety and more conciseness. I then prompt it to improve conciseness.
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The output text is then stripped of everything that it said was great in the first place. Yes, the text became more concise but also boring and not very personal. Conclusion. I will rather write in my own style with all its flaws and only use AI in a limited way for editing.
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What Buffett is doing today is conditioned on his present set of constraints. It is his early path to where he is today that should be emulated and understood. And then again, it was Charlie Munger that helped him escape the hellhole of classic value investing.
Bob Elliott
@BobEUnlimited25 Nov 2024
Tons of press saying Buffet's recent cash surge is a signal to be followed. It's not. His cyclical market timing alpha is negative over the last 30 years. Another example that for nearly all investors it's far better to just remain fully invested. Even for an oracle. Thread.
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Nvidia results last night were as expected. The dip in gross margin is natural during rollout of Blackwell chips. They will slowly recover as production ramps up. There are also little signs yet that hyperscalers are reducing demand. #nvidia #equities
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more replies
Nvidia’s valuation is still stretched reflecting very high expectations for the business. Key risks are lower demand from hyperscalers and competition. Any valuation model on Nvidia will be sensitive to changes in those two variables.
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What could trigger a slowdown in demand from hyperscalers? If Google and Microsoft come to the conclusion that the ROIC profile looks less rosy on AI applications/services than initially expected.
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