Data driven Sports analysis. By @jamesday87
Melbourne
Joined April 2016
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Objective ranking of who I would like to see win the #AFL premiership, using a GUT based model
Brisbane
St Kilda
Bulldogs
West Coast
Power
Richmond
Collingwood
Geelong
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Fellow @FMI_TL ers, please join me in offering huge thanks to FootyMaths for forging on and putting in all those hours despite the especially trying circumstances in this weirdest of years.
Not even a global pandemic could stop this competition.
Hip hip ...
AFL Wonk Tweeps on @SquiggleAFL (or others!) who only produce estimated Margins, how do you calculate ladder percentage? I just use `average margin` as a kind of surrogate but that falls down towards the end of the season where percentage matters
I'm assuming the solution here is just to produce match predictions that have actual For and Against rather than just Margin but wondering if anyone has addressed this before?
Nice piece although this point on St Kilda is interesting. Quite a bit of noise from Saints fans I know that echo this sentiment! The collective Squiggle models have them as a 94% chance to make the 8, while the market has them at 93% abc.net.au/news/2020-09-09/f…
Obviously not a guarantee but wouldn't call it precarious! Perhaps, as @Jameshi86365839 mentioned, some nervousness in the nineties for long suffering Saints fans teapaw.org/Jameshi86365839/status…
Also - for a slightly more more wonky take on which games to watch, give @MatterOfStats simulations posts a read to see his 'match importance' metrics! matterofstats.com/mafl-simul…
OK so I *think* this is working. There are some bugs in `fitzRoy` that I need to fix but think I've got this working and making a bit more sense, although haven't got the brain capacity to fully investigate tonight! plussixoneblog.com/page/aflm…
Leaving for posterity but thanks to @Jameshi86365839 for pointing out some inconsistencies. I think there is a bug in the final round matches that is messing things up. Will investigate tonight and re-run the sims!
For anyone using #fitzRoy - just be aware that the `get_fixture` code is broken. You can actually use `get_afl_fixture()` which is working, it just will have slightly different team names/structure to the normal `get_fixture`
Leaving for posterity but thanks to @Jameshi86365839 for pointing out some inconsistencies. I think there is a bug in the final round matches that is messing things up. Will investigate tonight and re-run the sims!
Horror week for @melbournefc and their finals chances. @stkildafc and @CollingwoodFC almost locked in, with @GWSGIANTS heavy favorites for the last finals spot plussixoneblog.com/page/aflm…
Horror week for @melbournefc and their finals chances. @stkildafc and @CollingwoodFC almost locked in, with @GWSGIANTS heavy favorites for the last finals spot plussixoneblog.com/page/aflm…
Have also updated the #AFL mens predictions page showing probabilities of various finishing positions and finals results buff.ly/3gM662r
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As footy twitter blows up with it's periodic "stats are useless" takes, it's worth noting:
Champion Data Player Ratings, like any single number, are an oversimplification of a player's performance.
#AFL Men's simulations are fresh out of the oven! A note to those interested, these should update every day during a round if you can't wait for the round to finish 🎉 buff.ly/2E7gLXP
